Seeking Alpha

Roger F. Goodrich

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Roger F. Goodrich's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Trade Down On Yield Without Losing Income [View article]
    No Free Cake:

    Thanks for the comments. Glad to see someone else is doing the same things.

    Roger
    May 14 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Due Diligence For (Exponential) Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    mtairyinvestor:

    "Don't know if it might be irrational or rational"

    Strange, I don't know either..

    Thanks for sharing (and serving).

    Roger
    May 6 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Due Diligence For (Exponential) Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    Bob:

    WILCO
    or is it Roger, Dodger, over and out.

    Roger
    May 6 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Due Diligence For (Exponential) Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    TR:

    Thanks for the comments. I agree with the Debt/Equity comment. I just don't like 'Equity', maybe 'Equity - Goodwill'. I tried to find a replacement with my Debt/OMBA%.

    Roger
    May 6 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Cranky:

    My understanding is that you achieve these yields by using REIT and MLP ETFs. I prefer to pick these from individual stocks. To each his own.

    Thanks for the comment.

    Roger
    Apr 25 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    ETF Professor:

    We agree. Thanks for your comments.

    Roger
    Apr 24 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    ETF Professor:
    The answer to your first question is Yes, as far as I am aware.
    If you have data that suggests otherwise, please come forth with details. I am not talking about ETFs that have dividend growth (or similar words) in their title. I am talking about year-to-year actual dividend growth paid out. The track record needs to include the 2008-9 financial crisis because we are looking for an alternative to owning individual stocks. Many of us have portfolio segments of individual stocks that didn't take a hit during the crisis.

    Roger
    Apr 24 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Couple Of Better Dividend Growth ETFs? [View article]
    Dave:

    I think your problem is looking at those that have high yield as a starting point. As you correctly noted, they don't seem to care about DG.
    I have several in my portfolio. Some I will probably dump if they don't shape up. It 'may be' that 2009 was a generational thing. I look for improvement after that. Some show signs.
    The most promising is VEU. Dividends from 2007 to 2011 are:
    0.51, 0.785, 0.863, 1.019, 1.369. In the past, they have paid once per year in December. This Year (so far) they paid in September @ 0.799. If they pay again in December and top the 2011 payout, which I think they will, the payout string is all up. The yield in December 2011 was 3.45% with a 25% DG. I like the turnover ratio of 6% with 2260 holdings. All Vanguard has to do is leave it alone.

    Roger
    Oct 25 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dividend Growth Investing Be Reconciled With Modern Portfolio Theory? [View article]
    I have thought more on this subject overnight and have additional thoughts.
    To use an engineering analogy: MPT operates in the frequency domain and DGI operates in the time domain. If we are talking about the same 'stuff', there are no discrepancies. All MPT does is analyze various combinations of portfolio segments. If they were to take a large cap segment (for example) and fill it with DG stocks (which they don't), the result would most likely be a higher total return with lower variation. If they did this with all segments (which I have attempted in my portfolio), the curve of total return vs. standard deviation would move up and to the left.
    Dave: Again: super article, it gets our juices flowing.

    Roger
    Sep 20 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yield-On-Cost Trap, And When To Sell [View article]
    Good article and comments. I agree, give or take, with all.
    The truth is somewhere in-between, as usual.

    Roger
    Sep 17 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Boot Camp [View article]
    SDS:

    Thanks for your comments.
    In the dividendinvestor.com site, under Dividend Information there is a blue box with the title Dividends Paid Since. Click on that for the dates and dividend info.
    Stocks with linear growth increase each year by a constant dollar amount. They do not compound at a constant growth rate. Since these stocks usually have a greater yield, in the short term it is not a problem. However, in the long term, over 15 years, the dividends do not keep up with inflation.

    Roger
    Sep 10 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Measuring Dividend Growth, Part 1: Exponential [View article]
    Obieephyhm:
    Thanks for your comment. Since I am not a 1%er and don't have enough money to buy all the dividend paying stocks, I use a gross method of reducing the # of stocks to a more manageable size, then use the techniques mentioned in my articles to zero in on ones to buy, or ones to sell from my portfolio. I use other metrics in this process as well.
    Taking Dave's suggestion (see comment below), one could add columns to Fish's spreadsheet and use 'IF' logic statements to highlight stocks above a certain yield and above a certain DGR. This quickly reduces the population of candidates for further analysis.
    Roger
    Jul 26 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Measuring Dividend Growth, Part 1: Exponential [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I believe the data I used for MDT is accurate. A comparison of actual dividends paid with the N-LR proxy I calculated shows that of the 7 years of dg, the first 3 match the proxy, the next 2 are higher and the last 2 lower. I think this is because MDT is a cyclical stock like ITW (which is plotted in the article). If and when the economy recovers, MDT dividends should go up to make up the loss. If they don't, there is reason for further investigation. What I am saying is that, based on the last 8 years, MDT is a 18.5% dg stock and when the economy improves the dividends should revert to the mean.
    Jul 26 12:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth As A Figure Of Merit [View article]
    Robert:

    Thanks for your comment.
    All I did was use David Fish's Dividend Champion EOY2011 spreadsheet and average the dividend growth columns BG-BR.
    The results (from 2011vs2010 to 2000vs1999):
    7.85, 5.59, 6.12, 11.7, 11.5, 11.5, 10.9, 11.4, 8.75, 5.97, 6.5, 11.3
    Note: If you match up the dips, they look almost identical. HAT.
    Roger
    Jul 1 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth As A Figure Of Merit [View article]
    Thanks you for your reply.
    1) Adding Y and DG (present value of all future dividends) to find fair market price of a stock may be one way of looking at it. There are assumptions here also (returns are constant in perpetuity). To me that is a different topic.
    2) I wasn't relying on YOC, I said I don't use it. I just used it here as a 'goal in the future' to show that the product, Y*DG, was useful in accessing if you met that goal.
    3) The real purpose and, to me, the value of using Y*DG is to access which of 2 stocks you would rather hold.
    Example:
    Y1=3, DG1=12, Y1*DG1=36
    Y2=8, DG2=6, Y2*DG2=48
    For exponential returns, the crossover point is 17.8 years.
    I would rather own #2 because I am getting higher dividends for the first 17.8 years.

    Y1=3, DG1=12, Y1*DG1=36
    Y2=6, DG2=6, Y2*DG2=36
    The crossover is 12.6 years. Maybe equal value?

    Y1=3, DG1=12, Y1*DG1=36
    Y2=4, DG2=6, Y2*DG2=24
    Crossover is 5.2 years. #1 is better because of all those dividends in the out years.

    This was met to be a quick and dirty Figure of Merit; no more, no less. I probably should have used an example like this, It is hard to judge who the readers are.

    Roger
    Jun 30 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
188 Comments
102 Likes