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Roger F. Goodrich  

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  • High-Yield ETFs For Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    Z:

    Everyone should have a poor cousin. The question is: which one?

    Roger
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yield ETFs For Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    Yebrevo:
    Thanks for the comments.
    Being retired, I have more time than money, but as I stated, I am looking for a low maintenance portfolio. A little time spent now saves time in the future.
    The answer to your question is yes, I believe, as stated in the article, what is important is the resulting yield when you are buying.


    Roger
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yield ETFs For Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    Cal:

    Thanks for the comments.
    I realize REM is the most risky of the ETFs I listed. I am banking on low interest rates for a year or so. It may not work out, but I might also keep it through the cycle and see what happens. I could stand the price going down, as long as it recovered. If dividends stay on the high end, even with modest cuts, OK with me. You spend your money and take your chances!
    I did not include high yield corporate bonds as a possibility because I already own JNK. Also, I was looking for ETFs with some equity hoping for some capital gain potential and dividend growth.

    Roger
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yield ETFs For Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    Rashbaugh:
    Thanks for the comments.
    I don't disagree with the statement about REM. I may not hold it through a business cycle. As I stated in the article, I don't have big bucks in any of these. I prefer to hold small amounts (relative) in the portfolio so I can track them better. Generally speaking, we shouldn't forget that the higher the yield, the higher the risk.
    My Fixed Inc segment, 20% of portfolio, is totally sold off in the first 20 years of the distribution phase, according to plan. That phase may start in 3 years in my case. The object is to have more income while the Div Gr segment cranks up. See my article on the End Game.
    The only CEF I have is IIM. I got burned with them during the financial crisis. I think ETFs are a better way to go, although they are not perfect. See my comment to SDS.

    Roger
    Dec 30, 2013. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yield ETFs For Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    SDS:

    Thanks for the comments. Always good to hear from you.
    Will C/O your blogs.
    I have reasons for wanting a low maintenance portfolio and the 'extra' costs of having ETFs is worth it, IMHO. We are all coming from different directions and going on different paths, they only cross at times. I write about my portfolio and its workings with the thought that some detail may be useful to someone else. Besides, it clears my brain 'deck' for action.
    Happy New Year.

    Roger
    Dec 30, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: A Better Way To Carry Out The 4% Rule [View article]
    Spoken like a man!
    Dec 21, 2013. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management: Shocking Price Action [View article]
    SFC:

    Thanks for the interesting article. I hope you are right and the buyers come back.

    Long NLY, wondering why I am under water.

    Roger
    Dec 9, 2013. 06:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: A Better Way To Carry Out The 4% Rule [View article]
    David:

    I don't think Monte Carlo tests are the answer. One problem is: at what success rate do you call acceptable? I have run Monte Carlo simulations one run at a time, stopping on the bad cases. Looking at the multi-year market performance, you say Wow, that is bad, but maybe it could happen. The likely scenario is that if it gets that bad, the whole financial system is broken. Then, its another ballgame.

    I believe the best system is where you have a good game plan up front, then see what happens and revise as necessary. I think that is what most folk do.

    Roger
    Dec 6, 2013. 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Income Portfolio Of 30: 2nd Half Of 2013 Review [View article]
    OKW:

    Thank you for sharing your methodology and portfolio. I own 14 of your 30 stocks so we are thinking along similar lines. I don't have any outstanding issues with the others in your portfolio.

    I noted that you expect compounding in your stocks, which is an exponential growth. I think you will find that, in general, utilities, telecoms, MLPs and REITs are better described having linear growth. The first has the same dividend growth rate each year (give or take) while the latter has the same $ amount of increase.
    In the long run, there is a vast difference.

    Keep up the good work.

    Roger
    Dec 6, 2013. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: A Better Way To Carry Out The 4% Rule [View article]
    I have been retired for over 25 years and have used both dividends/interest and capital gains for income. My portfolio is now worth more than 3 times the original value and I currently live on its income. I had to convert (with cash payout) a 401k type savings plan to an IRA and then invest in new stocks. Since the 2008 financial crisis, I have adopted a mostly dg philosophy, but do not believe in a one-size-fits-all strategy.
    I have done extensive simulations with a variety of types of stocks
    (with corresponding metrics) using real market data from 1955-2006 in three 40 year periods.
    Generally speaking, the takeaway from this effort was:
    1) keep low yield - high dg stocks (no sell off) to provide dividend income during the latter years of retirement. Selling part of them in the latter years does increase income slightly but should only be done in up markets. You don't need a 100% dg portfolio to do this IF you keep the dg from sagging below a good exponential rate.
    2) for higher yield - moderate dg stocks some sales are acceptable and useful to boost early retirement income (above the favorite 4%).
    3) highest yield - no dg stocks/bonds can be aggressively sold over the first half of the expected retirement to further boost early income. This segment might be 20% of the portfolio.
    My 2 daughters will ultimately inherit the portfolio and have no heirs, so the name of our game is to keep an adequate income for me (and wife), increasing portfolio value as much as possible. The portfolio could be reduced during their lifetime, but the simulations show that significant sell-offs are not wise (except for 3 above).


    Roger
    Dec 5, 2013. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ALPS Plans EM Dividend Dogs ETF [View article]
    Tom:

    Thanks for writing the article and doing the research. Let's hope they don't turn out to be dogs! I have them on my list to watch and hopefully buy.

    Roger
    Dec 5, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: A Better Way To Carry Out The 4% Rule [View article]
    Robert:

    I agree with you 100%, but some folks have to convert 401k portfolios. This is what I had to do, although it was called a Savings Plan at the time.

    Roger
    Dec 4, 2013. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: A Better Way To Carry Out The 4% Rule [View article]
    Part Time Investor:
    Thanks for writing the article. Interesting analysis.

    Unfortunately, the probable take-away is that the DGI team won. The problem with the DGI scheme is that you need a lot of money to get the income you need and you leave a ton on the table. The problem with the G&V approach is that (as you point out) you may take out too much, shares that you can't recover. The truth maybe somewhere in between.

    The original Bengen 4% rule doesn't guarantee that you will outlive the portfolio. I read somewhere recently that most Financial Advisors now favor a 'bucket' approach.

    I have tried to address these issues in my SA article "Dividend Growth Investing - The End Game".


    This is an important issue and the discussion needs to continue.

    Roger
    Dec 3, 2013. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Good Questions [View article]
    SDC:

    Thanks for the tip. I will order from Amazon and (maybe) get it delivered by drone.

    Roger
    Dec 3, 2013. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Good Questions [View article]
    User:

    Thanks for the reply. I have never seen this happen, but as you say, it could.

    Roger
    Dec 2, 2013. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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