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Roger F. Goodrich

 
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  • ETFs For Dividend Growth Investors, Revisited [View article]
    dsteng:

    Does the performance you saw include dividend growth? That is the metric I was concentrating on here.

    In any event, keep looking and soon you will no longer be a novice.

    Thanks for the comments.

    Roger
    Jun 29, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs For Dividend Growth Investors, Revisited [View article]
    M:

    Thanks for the comments.
    As I pointed out in the article, I believe that ETFs track to some extent the economies of the areas they represent, good or otherwise.

    Roger
    Jun 29, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs For Dividend Growth Investors, Revisited [View article]
    Hardog:
    Thanks for the comment.

    Roger
    Jun 29, 2014. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Procter & Gamble Company Belong In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    Maybe I didn't make myself clear. I think the increase was a deliberate attempt to assure investors that they have confidence of at least 7% dg in the future. I may be wrong, but the numbers are too close to 7% that it suggests a dollar dividend increase that they backed into. Next year will tell.

    Roger
    Apr 30, 2014. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Procter & Gamble Company Belong In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    PIP:

    Thanks for the good, well researched article.

    I think the discussion on fair value is not the prime consideration here. There are probably more of us that own shares than wish to buy. Our concern then becomes more related to PG's future. Your discussion here hits the nail on the head and I agree with the comments on this issue.

    I find it interesting to note that the dividend in 2013 was 2.3665 and it appears the dividend for 2014 will be 2.5323, a dividend growth of 7.0061%. If they shaved a 1/100 penny off each of the last 3 quarters of this year, the dividend growth for 2014 would be 6.9935%.

    It may be that PG is telling its investors that the dividend growth decreases over the past few years have stopped and will not be lower than 7% (plus change, hopefully).

    Long PG and hanging on.

    Roger
    Apr 30, 2014. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Returns From Retirement Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    SDS:

    Thanks for the comment. I will read your link. You have good advice.

    Roger
    Feb 11, 2014. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Returns From Retirement Dividend Growth Portfolios [View article]
    Dividend Sleuth:

    Thanks for the comment. The article was not written just for the RMD issue. I used that formula to modify the 1/T approach to portfolio withdrawals. However, the article does show that if you have to take RMDs, using a small amount of 'principal' will be OK.

    Roger
    Feb 11, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    Elz4107:

    Linear growth is where the $ increase in the dividend amount is the same every year.
    Exponential growth is where the % increase is the same every year.

    Obviously, not all stocks follow this perfectly, but C Corp. stocks are predominately exponential and Utilities, REITs, MLPs and Telecoms are mostly linear.

    If you have Fish's CCC list available, graph TGT or WAG as good examples of exponential and EPD and OHI as examples of linear.

    Over a long period of time, more than 10 years, this difference matters. Generally, linear growth stocks have a higher yield which gives them an advantage in the short term.


    I hope this helps and thanks for the comment.


    Roger
    Feb 9, 2014. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    bakersdad:

    Thanks for the reply.

    Those constants were not chosen randomly, but reflect tailoring the mathematical expressions to cull out poorer performers (from a large population) as you would do when you screen a database.
    The 5 & 7 raises the entire population, straight up/down, while the 15 and 50 moves the cutoff up/down at a 45 degree angle. Some attention was made to make the cutoff consistent with well known stocks (good/not so). Also, I have used this technique previously with yield and dividend growth.
    It is interesting to note that using both this and previous studies that for exponential stocks, cutoffs were 16/50 while linear stocks were 55/15. The sum of the two is 65 and 70. I am working on that to see if there is a 'golden rule' for both types of stocks.

    It would be nice if there is a 'magic number', MN, encoded to M# (to keep it secret), that could be brought to you in the future by M*.

    Seriously, I am searching for ways to characterize stocks so as to better understand behavior for buy/hold/sell decisions.

    I am glad to see you are interested. Good luck with your endeavors.

    Roger

    Jan 30, 2014. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    61rookie:

    Thanks for the comments.

    I don't own shares in either KMI or KMP. KMI is the general partner of KMP which is a MLP. It might be wise to own both, KMP in a taxable account and KMI in a tax deferred.
    Both are well run companies as far as I know. In a portfolio you need both kinds of stocks, lower yield/higher growth and the reverse.

    Roger
    Jan 30, 2014. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    User 167099:

    Thanks for the comments.
    It would not be in your best interest for me to list the highest growth rate from a database of stocks. There are many other factors involved in selecting stocks to buy.

    Roger
    Jan 30, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    haschultz:

    I do keep track of payout over time with the stocks I own. Using earnings is not a good parameter. I use Dividends Paid / (Net Income + Depreciation + Non-Cash Items). These are taken from the Cash Flow Sheet. It works for almost all stocks, including REITs and MLPs.

    Thanks for the comments.

    Roger
    Jan 30, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    SDS:

    Thanks for the comments. You are right about the decrease of DGR over time, but it should be so slow that this technique wouldn't pick up on it. I am looking for the fast decreases.

    Roger
    Jan 30, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Dividend Growth Stock Coming Or Going? [View article]
    Victorybydivs:

    I checked 3 sources, Dividendinvestors, Fish's CCC Lists, Yahoo. They all have $2.59.

    Roger
    Jan 29, 2014. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Metrics For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    BruceM:

    Thanks for the kind comments.

    I have never looked into Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). I will look into it as time permits. It should correlate. I am looking for new metrics that are easy to calculate. I don't like to follow the herd, then we would all be bidding up the same stocks.

    Roger
    Jan 27, 2014. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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