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Roger Newman

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  • InterOil Rally Likely To Continue [View article]
    Here's an interesting fact. IOC has suggested that majors are looking at its properties numerous times yet no deal has ever been reached. If the asset was all that you claim it to be, the majors would be tripping over themselves to become involved. Instead, they express interest, conduct due diligence and then their interest wanes. I would be on the majors over your opinion any time.
    Aug 14 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil (IOC -3.9%) is lower on chatter suggesting waning interest from Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) in a potential deal for IOC's Papua New Guinea exploration licenses. [View news story]
    RDS would just be the latest in companies that have been involved in talks with IOC only to back away...
    Aug 13 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds Love These 3 High-Growth Drugmakers [View article]
    Be very careful if you think about going long HZNP. They just announced up to a $170 million offering (major dilution) and currently have a junk loan that costs them more in interest each quarter than their total drug sales. Not to mention that Deuxis, their recently approved drug, is nothing more than a combination of Pepcid and Ibuprofen which are both available over the counter at substantially lower cost. Perhaps health plans will cover this drug but I don't see why they would.
    Aug 10 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: Opportunity Of A Lifetime [View article]
    Wow, zero risk. That's as good as a Treasury bond. I wish I could make an equity investment with zero risk. This is representative of the hype that followers ascribe to IOC's prospects. There is no such thing as a zero risk exploration company, never has been and never will be. Not to say that IOC can't succeed but no risk? NO WAY!
    Aug 7 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: Opportunity Of A Lifetime [View article]
    IOC has been about to explode in price for essentially its entire life. I would enter this with a healthy dose of skepticism. Just because a billionaire makes a large investment in no way validates the thesis. Just ask John Paulson about his investment in Chinese reverse merger companies or his losses in gold. This stock has been pumped so often on message boards and here on SA that I have lost count. Interesting that this is your first and only article. Perhaps you have written before under a different name(s)?
    Jul 25 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAM Energy Partners: The Start Of Something Great Or A Terrific Short? [View article]
    Just saw this and glad you took the profit!
    Jul 23 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Deeply Undervalued Oil And Gas Stocks That Are A Strong Buy, 1 With Huge Downside [View article]
    Remember, big names make mistakes as well. John Paulson lost significant sums in a Chinese reverse merger company. I wouldn't call him an amateur. You should never rely on the fact that other firms have invested but should perform your own due diligence. By the way, IOC has been on the verge of major news nearly its entire life and it is headed by an individual who has a very questionable background. I have no position.
    Jul 20 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Opko Health: Shorting Is The Best Diagnosis [View article]
    I heartily agree with Pablo. You may choose not to be long OPK but to short it in the face of monthly purchases by Frost who could buy the entire float if he so chose? I doubt that you will see enough of a drop to make a short at these levels very profitable unless your timing is very good in light of its normal volatility. As they say, don't fight the fed and in this case, don't fight Frost, just choose not to participate.
    Jun 12 08:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Than A Money Market, With A Warrant To Boot [View article]
    Personally the way I view this investment is that I will get my principal back plus some "better than money market" return and the warrants are my capital gain call option. Once the transaction closes (IF it closes), I own the warrant for "free". I tend to hold the warrants past closing and watch them/the company to see if I want to hold or sell. At that point, I view the warrants as I would any other long holding and follow it accordingly.
    Jun 11 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Than A Money Market, With A Warrant To Boot [View article]
    Thanks for your reply. I wouldn't say this has some hair on it. All of the funds are held in short-dated treasuries with a trustee. SPACs do have the security of a money market with higher rates. They do not have "fixed" price but will generate better yields than a money market if held to maturity, which is usually just more than a year. Perhaps a better analogy would have been to an 18 month CD?
    Jun 9 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Than A Money Market, With A Warrant To Boot [View article]
    berloe, management has various options to complete the transaction. Management also controls a good number of shares and always votes yes. The easiest was to read a prospectus is to search edgar online for the S-1 of any SPAC in which you are interested.
    May 29 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Than A Money Market, With A Warrant To Boot [View article]
    Well, your analysis is certainly interesting but...

    By agreement, SPAC proceeds are held in treasuries with less than 180 day maturities,so they are as safe as treasuries. Here, however, is the KEY element that you miss in your analysis. When a SPAC announces a transaction, unitholders have the option to vote "no" on the transaction. If the transaction closes, they are still entitled to receive their pro-rata share of funds held in trust, including interest earnings. They also get to keep the warrant at no cost. So yes, if the SPAC consummates a transaction you can elect to receive your investment back plus interest, and KEEP the warrants. Thus the article title, better than a money market with warrants to boot.

    Additionally, if a letter of intent is signed, management does get another six months to close. They CANNOT sign a new loi and get another six months in perpetuity as you suggest. The MAXIMUM life of a SPAC is twenty-four months as it is not a conventional equity. It simply does NOT last forever. If, of course, you elect to take shares in the new company (which I do NOT recommend) then all bets are off.

    The smart play, as I suggested, is to purchase SPACs after the IPO, if/when they are selling at a discount to funds held in trust (you have to watch them for your opportunity) and get your yield to maturity (YES, maturity as there is a contractual maturity date). I would be happy to cite a few examples of SPACs that have dissolved and returned all funds to investors at expiration (yes they have an expiration date). There are dozens that have failed to close a transaction and expired. Leave a comment and I'll be happy to post a few examples as well as a few examples of current SPACs and their expiration dates. You can follow them and see that they do not last past expiration.

    Katgod, it is unfortunate that readers can write whatever they want with no basis in knowledge. You can gain the understanding yourself, and confirm what I am saying, by reading the S-1 for any SPAC that is available at Edgar-online.

    Berloe, watch the public PE firms and chart their share prices. They have significant risk to capital. BDC's have similar risk to capital. With SPACs there is no risk to capital and a strong yield so long as you hold to maturity.

    I'm happy to answer specific questions on SPACs and will continue to write about this great opportunity for conservative investors looking for a better than money market yield with an upside...
    May 27 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Income Security: An Update On Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Preferred CEF [View article]
    Thanks George. I agree that this is not exciting. When I last wrote about this category a purchase of TYG PrA would have worked out pretty well. Now, I think is not the time to enter and it may very well be the time to exit.
    May 2 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Income Security: An Update On Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Preferred CEF [View article]
    There is a list of 8 "other ones" in my previous article here along with a discussion of the class.
    Apr 26 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RAM Energy Partners: The Start Of Something Great Or A Terrific Short? [View article]
    Thanks Keith. As posted, I would have exited my short despite not being inclined as a daytrader.
    Jan 24 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment