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Roger Newman

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  • The Latest Cure for Your High-Yield Hunger Pains [View article]
    Investors should be careful on this one as it is not as simple as it seems. It is true that the market believes the deal will go through, evidenced by the tight spread. There is, however, a commitment letter from the lender that expires April 30. They could always get an extension but there is currently a time limit on the lender's commitment to finance the deal. There is a great deal of downside if the financing falls though so I am wary of the risk/reward on this deal. There is a reason that the Merger Fund, which specializes in this type of transaction, typically earns low single digit returns...
    Apr 18 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    And at what terms...
    Apr 12 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Although I do not have a position, I will be very impressed and readily admit that I am wrong if IOC actually inks this deal. Good for them.
    Apr 12 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Isn't Soros out, or mostly out? And remember John Paulson was nailed with a Chinese timber company!
    Apr 9 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    I agree with your point Dan but there is similarly no "evidence" that there is a bid by a Supermajor. I am an attorney by training and Mulacek's statements are not clear enough to be treated as evidence either. I say the jury is still out.
    Apr 9 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Now I get the April 26 comment, thanks...
    Apr 9 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    I am also curious, why April 26?
    Apr 9 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
    Ryan -

    In analyzing Netflix's better programming, beware of a self-fulling prophesy. Do you remember the Miller Lite beer challenge a number of years ago at the Super Bowl? They took a bunch of Bud Lite drinkers and did a blind taste test. About half of them chose Miller. That was supposed to be a great coup. The problem is that they ONLY had Bud Lite drinkers and it would only be normal in a blind taste test for some to choose Miller. When analyzing Netflix's claim that many of their most popular titles are not available on other services, it may be true that the most popular Amazon Prime rentals are not available on Netflix. It is not a logically sound argument.
    Apr 5 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    Of course, another 90 - 120 days now. The delays continue...
    Apr 5 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    Here's the rub. Let's assume that the longs are correct and that it does in fact take investment bankers an inordinate amount of time to evaluate a deal, which is highly unlikely. I ask the longs, at what point to you begin to question your assumptions? If you are short, every day without an announcement is further support to your position. If you are long, what are you hanging your hat on in terms of a deal being announced? Silence?
    Apr 5 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    Here's the rub... It simply doesn't take this long for an investment bank to evaluate bids. I have stated before, and stand behind my opinion, that no bid will be announced this month or next...
    Apr 4 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    Psych, I stand by my statement. I do not believe that there will be ANY deal announced in the next two months at least. I will either be right or wrong but if history serves as any guide, I like my odds.
    Apr 3 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    Once again, IOC longs will come up with any excuse to justify IOC not fulfilling it's promises. The bid deadline was February 28, not disputed by anyone. Competent investment bankers have been hired by IOC - doesn't seem to be disputed. It does not take over a month for qualified bankers to evaluate a limited number of bids. That is their job. It may take some time to commit a deal to paper but not to announce the deal in the first place. IOC has been noticeably quiet about the whole process at this point. Why not say something like, we have accepted a bid, details to be provided in a PR shortly. Even, we have narrowed to two bidders who are ______ and expect a second round of bidding. The problem with a press release like this is that you are forced to name other companies who will quickly confirm or deny the information. I believe that IOC cannot make a release because there is nothing specific to release. There is no major bidder and they will delay just as long as they can. Watch and see. You are certainly free to dispute my theory but I would be willing to wager anyone on SA that there will be no definitive deal announced during the month of April or May.
    Apr 3 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Of Interoil [View article]
    I'm still waiting for the March announcement of their chosen partner. Oh, wait a minute, it's April. Now I'm waiting for the article quoting the IOC press releases about their imminent partnership to be announced by end of March. Why isn't anyone asking questions?
    Apr 2 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG With A 7% Yield [View article]
    I don't typically post continuous updates on my trading. I was long AVF as disclosed and did not trade my position until well after the three days stated in my disclaimer.
    Mar 14 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
238 Comments
162 Likes