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Roger Newman

 
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  • Interoil: Let's Get Ready To Fumble [View article]
    I agree with your thesis. Here's the problem, the risk/reward. Shorting this stock is very dangerous as the risk is huge on the slim chance that they can monetize. The problem with options is that the market has been VERY patient with IOC allowing it to continually delay any meaningful announcement. Premium is also very high. How do monetize your short bet? That is my question!!!
    May 9, 2013. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Solid Choice For Income [View article]
    Albert - I see you've written a few times on LINE. Any thoughts on this weekend's Barron's article citing a fair value of less than $20 per share?
    May 5, 2013. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Growing MLPs With High Dividend Yields [View article]
    Avi - any thoughts about this weekend's Barron's article claiming a fair value for LINE at less than $20?
    May 5, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Reports A Nightmare Quarter [View article]
    Remember also that MBS pricing has already firmed up from the end of the quarter which will increase book value.
    May 3, 2013. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Detailed Dividend Sustainability Analysis [View article]
    Scott - I think we would all appreciate your updated analysis in light of this afternoon's earnings announcement...
    May 2, 2013. 05:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil (IOC) falls 5% premarket after announcing CEO Phil Mulacek will retire effective April 30. The company calls Mulacek "a remarkable visionary" and notes that he will continue to serve as an adviser. Mulacek departs as IOC seeks to finalize a long-promised LNG partnership in Papua New Guinea. Chairman Dr. Gaylen Byker will serve as interim CEO until a replacement for Mulacek is found. [View news story]
    Hmmmm. Leaving just before culminating his life's crowning achievement of closing a deal? Sounds very fishy to me!
    Apr 23, 2013. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Cure for Your High-Yield Hunger Pains [View article]
    Investors should be careful on this one as it is not as simple as it seems. It is true that the market believes the deal will go through, evidenced by the tight spread. There is, however, a commitment letter from the lender that expires April 30. They could always get an extension but there is currently a time limit on the lender's commitment to finance the deal. There is a great deal of downside if the financing falls though so I am wary of the risk/reward on this deal. There is a reason that the Merger Fund, which specializes in this type of transaction, typically earns low single digit returns...
    Apr 18, 2013. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    And at what terms...
    Apr 12, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Although I do not have a position, I will be very impressed and readily admit that I am wrong if IOC actually inks this deal. Good for them.
    Apr 12, 2013. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Isn't Soros out, or mostly out? And remember John Paulson was nailed with a Chinese timber company!
    Apr 9, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    I agree with your point Dan but there is similarly no "evidence" that there is a bid by a Supermajor. I am an attorney by training and Mulacek's statements are not clear enough to be treated as evidence either. I say the jury is still out.
    Apr 9, 2013. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Now I get the April 26 comment, thanks...
    Apr 9, 2013. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    I am also curious, why April 26?
    Apr 9, 2013. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
    Ryan -

    In analyzing Netflix's better programming, beware of a self-fulling prophesy. Do you remember the Miller Lite beer challenge a number of years ago at the Super Bowl? They took a bunch of Bud Lite drinkers and did a blind taste test. About half of them chose Miller. That was supposed to be a great coup. The problem is that they ONLY had Bud Lite drinkers and it would only be normal in a blind taste test for some to choose Miller. When analyzing Netflix's claim that many of their most popular titles are not available on other services, it may be true that the most popular Amazon Prime rentals are not available on Netflix. It is not a logically sound argument.
    Apr 5, 2013. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    Of course, another 90 - 120 days now. The delays continue...
    Apr 5, 2013. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
259 Comments
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