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  • Despite Big Fast Panic, It's Still a Normal Bear [View article]
    LarryH, Part of my "normal bear" belief stems from the fear that I have seen in past events. I don't know how long you have been involved in the markets but fear from the 1987 crash was more than today, IMO. The fear from the Kuwait invasion in 1990 was a little less. The fear from the 97 Asian contagion was about the same and the fear from the 98 Russian debt failure was probably a little less.

    I'm not sure how I would quantify the large fear from 2000-2002 but it was up there. This time has always been worse or different. This repeats over and over. Additionally the history of how the market works suggests that cutting in half twice in a decade will not happen. There needs to be time in between for a new generation of investors to come in.

    Of course I could be wrong. My goal is to miss a chunk of the move down (which has lead me to having a lot of cash raised and some double short etf for ages) as opposed to being the guy that quantifies this exactly right.

    Cycling scholar the time line you lay out would be pretty close to how long most bears last.
    Sep 10 16:03 pm |Rating: 0 0
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