Roger Nusbaum

Down on the Farm: Do Farm Stocks Have a Place in a Balanced Portfolio?

seek out Jimmy Rogers' commentary on this subject so you can decide for yourself.


On Nov 01 01:51 PM bcncv wrote:

> I'm not really sure I understand the rationale for investing in farmland.
> I could see the value in some specific ag related stocks, but not
> the land in general. Parts of my extended family have ranches that
> have been in the family for over 100 years. It has provided a modest
> living and a nice home for them over the years, but I can't see it
> providing much value in a retirement portfolio.
>
> Is there some reasoning here that I'm missing?

Debt, Dollar Woes Still Holding Back U.S. Economic Growth

"western medicine treats the symptoms, eastern medicine treats the disease" THAT is a great quote.


On Oct 29 06:27 AM chris coonan wrote:

> western medicine treats the symptoms, eastern medicine treats the
> disease....the US needs a little accupuncture and herbs right now
> as opposed to a capful of Nyquil!
>
> gov't needs to realize that bigger , faster, more is not always good....Americans
> need to slow down, conserve, work less, get smarter and apply balance
> to their lives, and to the spread of wealth and prosperity
>
> the recession could have been an opportunity to rebalance, but it
> appears that the teeter totter is at a 60 degree angle right now,
> and it means a hard landing for one, and launch off the end for the
> other. nice visual...

In Search of Healthy Currencies

here's hoping for easy shekel access for US based investors...


On Oct 28 05:44 AM Michael Eisenberg wrote:

> Roger - Good one. I think another point everyone needs to think about
> is day to day exposure. My case is easy. I live in Israel. Hence
> I moved almost all of my dollars to shekels about 12 months both
> to avoid the weak currency and to put most of my eggs in the basket
> that I have most of my expenses. People living in the US though do
> not realize that given that many goods are imported, they effectively
> have currency exposure in their day to day lives as the dollar drops
> and imported goods become more expensive. It is worth thinking in
> terms of global currency hedging in terms of COL as well.
>
> Finally, I think Israel has a lot of this correct and the Shekel
> feels like a good place to be vis a vis the euro and the dollar.

In Search of Healthy Currencies

good point and I think consistent with my interest in sidestepping some of this workout.


On Oct 27 08:37 AM Clive Corcoran wrote:

> Much as I am a fan of Ambrose Evans Pritchard, I think it is rash
> to say that the US currency will be the global reserve currency for
> the remainder of this century.
> The process of superseding the status quo may not be an entirely
> orderly one - but financial crises seldom are - and there is surely
> a growing need for a global unit of account that is not subject to
> the whim's of central bankers and how much of their currency they
> want to print

In Search of Healthy Currencies

the downside of Swissi appears to be the SNB's desire to have it lower and that it is no where near big enough to help its banks out if it needed to.


On Oct 26 12:23 PM Uncle Pie wrote:

> Don't forget CHF the Swiss franc. A US$ used to buy four Swiss francs,
> today it will just buy one with a couple of pennies left over. Conveniently,
> you can easily invest in world class companies which pay their dividends
> in Swiss francs; I've invested in Novartis NVS, Swisscom SCMWY,
> Roche Holdings RHHBY, and Zurich Financial ZFSVY. These complement
> my dividend payers in Australian $: BHP, ANZBY, NABZY, WOPEY and
> TLSYY. They complement my holdings which pay dividends in Canadian
> $, Euros, Norwegian krone, etc., too numerous to list here but mentioned
> in some of my other posts.

The 75/50 Portfolio: A Process Drilldown

not being for you is ok of course but "trying to beat everything in sight" is not what is being attempted. The goal is less volatility in both directions.


On Oct 24 02:52 PM oldman wrote:

> KISS is my preferred way of investing, not using all these products
> and trying to beat everything in sight. Dangerous, time consuming,
> and is it worth it? Not for me. Just opinion.

Don't Lose Sight of the Big Picture

thank you

"who is the whiz in marketing who came up with that title?" is from a Saturday Night Live skit from a Jerry Seinfeld appearance. He played a game show host where the contestants where all stand up comedians. One of the contestants (Rob Schneider) kept saying "what's the deal with that" and Adam Sandler kept saying "who is the whiz in marketing who came up with that."


On Oct 22 10:42 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> Mr. Nusbaum. Solid article.
>
> From the author:
>
> "The turnaround seemed to be attributed to negative comments from
> Richard Bove about Wells Fargo (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> regarding loan loss provisions and sustainability of earnings and
> also some rather drastic commentary from the pay czar (who is the
> whiz in marketing who came up with that title?)."
>
> There is no whiz in marketing that came up with that title. The
> left is usually dominant in the world of letters. This time they
> stumbled, and all Russians know about Czars or (my preference) Tsars,
> and Americans won't submit to them.

Brazil Gets a Little Nutty: Investment Survival in Emerging Markets

nothing sore about the subject, i was wrong about the intermediate term of course but i was lucky enough to sell my Kaupthing shares long before the final meltdown.

for now i do not know of a way in. i would want to look at the fishing industry (a big building block upon which the mismanaged good times were built) where there every to be access for US based investors or one of the utilities (geothermal).


On Oct 21 11:47 AM Brian P Shriver wrote:

> Roger:
> This may be a sore subject, but what do you think about Iceland now?
> How can a retail investor invest?
> Thanks,
> Brian

The Trouble with 401ks and Bond ETFs

sorry the $36k is the from social security


On Oct 13 09:15 AM Roger Nusbaum wrote:

> if you believe in limiting withdrawals to 4% (I do) then $200k generates
> $8000 per year plus another $36k maybe for a married couple? might
> be enough to get by on month to month but leaves almost no margin
> for error if something big, financially, comes up.

The Trouble with 401ks and Bond ETFs

if you believe in limiting withdrawals to 4% (I do) then $200k generates $8000 per year plus another $36k maybe for a married couple? might be enough to get by on month to month but leaves almost no margin for error if something big, financially, comes up.


On Oct 13 01:14 AM Gib wrote:

> I wonder how much higher the average would be if instead of just
> 401k, all retirement accounts were included, (401k + IRA + Annuities,
> etc.). Probably still disturbingly low...
>
> That said, if I read this right, $86k isn't the this isn't the average
> balance for someone ready to retire today. Presumably, the number
> is being brought down by workers who are decades away from retirement.
> Assuming people contribute throughout their career, the average balance
> of those near retirement should be 2 or 3 times the overall average,
> maybe about $200k. Throw in a $200k house and a regular social security
> check and things are starting to look a little bit brighter.

The Trouble with 401ks and Bond ETFs

taken to the extreme, look at argentina from years past. issue debt in USD and then default.


On Oct 09 10:40 AM Alan Young wrote:

> Roger, you lost me with the Yankee bond thing. I thought this was
> a way to enjoy the interest rate of a foreign country without any
> exposure to currency fluctuation.
>
> If I want exposure to the currency trend (which I generally do),
> I look for bonds denominated in the foreign currency.
>
> But you say there's a currency risk in the Yankee bonds. Can you
> explain (or point to an explanation) of how that happens?

PowerShares' DBA and DBC: The New Originals

i'm not sold on the idea of needing to get it all in one product. GCC has energy exposure which as mentioned above is something i'm not interested in (rather get energy exposure through stocks).

for people looking to get it all in one product then GCC's lower weighting makes it more attractive in that context.


On Oct 07 10:19 AM rbbrand wrote:

> Roger, how would you evaluate this new DBA versus GCC?

1920s Comparison Isn't So Far Off

No idea there was a depression in 1920-1921. To what extent did the end of WWI play role? Did I miss a mention of that?

PowerShares' DBA and DBC: The New Originals

LOL yes it does


On Oct 06 10:24 AM Battlebots wrote:

> The new DBA goes to 11.

John Maudlin: When Debt Gets Bigger than GDP It's Big Trouble

I think Schiff is a complicated example. By his own admission he was many years early. Further it would appear that the things he was right about did not help his clients in 2008 as Mike Shedlock detailed earlier this year.

While the above is true it is also true that Schiff has contributed much to the stream of consciousness about the mistakes made and the resulting problems.

I do not agree with him on magnitude and he seems to use adjectives that go beyond what the reality is. To read him a couple of years ago you would have thought the result by now would be martial law, riots and the complete tearing of the social fabric. Instead we have debates about whether the recession is over or not.

I agree with him in terms of direction but not magnitude.


On Oct 05 10:23 AM JeffDB wrote:

> On Oct 05 09:48 AM jse17 wrote: