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Roger Nusbaum

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  • Downsizing = Empowerment [View article]
    so you live on a farm in Ecuador? Are you a US ex-pat? I bet a lot of people would love to learn details of your story.
    Jul 5, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Self-Sufficiency And Resourcefulness Over Complaining [View article]
    Ramsey is very involved in selling product through firms that affiliate with him some how. This should be very easy to find if you are interested.
    Jul 3, 2014. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Investments: The Right Expectations [View article]
    he used to write regularly for indexuniverse (now You could try their archives to look for past articles he wrote for them.
    Jul 2, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing New Under The Sun [View article]
    nothing to OVER react to.

    for many years on my blog (going back before the financial crisis) I have said that the causes for large declines may differ over time but the market manifestations are the same; markets go up for a few years,then they drop and scare the hell out of people and then come back to make new highs with the variable being how long it takes to make new highs which is of course unknowable.
    Jun 19, 2014. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing New Under The Sun [View article]
    Not sure how you conclude isolationism from this post. An to the other comments, I say that the normal bull/ BEAR cycle will continue. The reader comment implied that it won't and in fact that reader replied back saying at much.

    If you are worried about calamity then you have time now while yo probably feel relatively good about your investment situation (relative to five and half years ago) to insulate yourself against that calamity. Once you have done that you can going about trying to help your community or whatever is important to you (that last bit is not a sarcastic comment on my part, I've been VERY actively involved as a volunteer firefighter in the small town where I live for 12 years).
    Jun 18, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Generation X Really Up A Creek? [View article]
    You reasonably cite the current list of issues confronting the world and its capital markets but from 30,000 feet none of these are new.

    Today's problems with Russia are no worse than the real cold war and there have been problems with Putin for a long time (he jailed Mikhail Khordokfsky and shut down Yukos).

    Worrying about China is certain not new, before they were going to stop buying our debt now it is the some islands near Japan.

    Anything to do with the Middle East? That's thousands of years in the making and will never end.

    North Korea; this just in there is a nut running the country.

    Illegals have been an issue for decades, is something changing now? Yes and no, some details may change but this will be a hot button issue for many years to come.

    All of these have existed and the markets have continued to have bull/bear cycles. The bear phases have been worse but markets have come back to make new highs so the people most hurt are the ones who panicked out and never got back in which is more about human behavior not market function.

    One of the items you list (or some other thing) could end the world but people have been betting incorrectly on that for centuries.
    Jun 16, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get The Beta Right [View article]
    I think you are describing something (new to me) that is called outcome oriented. You put together a portfolio intended to deliver some outcome like 4% yield and some volatility target. Getting to the volatility target might involve put options, some serious work with blending correlations (although that is not infallible) and some active trading.

    That is a lot to take on, something I am just learning about but I think that is where your comment is headed.
    May 30, 2014. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get The Beta Right [View article]
    The history of bank loans suggests it doesn't historically have equity-like volatility but high yield is a little more complicated.

    Over the long term it high yield has offered have the standard deviation of equities with more than 90% of the return per a white paper published by Peritus. The period studied though covered the 30 bull market in bonds.

    If the returns can't be repeated then the vol should come down too, not to investment grade vol but still lower. Credit risk now is generally low in terms of default rates. There will obviously be some future unpredictable event where default rates go back up.

    For years I have been saying small exposures to these types of things generally althoguh I have never used bank loans.
    May 30, 2014. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alts Probably, Moderation Definitely! [View article]
    first sentence I say alternative investments. eighth paragraph I list a half a dozen examples
    May 16, 2014. 10:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Your Portfolio Should Not Have 20% In Gold And 30% In Cash [View article]
    An ingredient to hyperinflation historically has been debts in other currencies. Wiemar owed war reparations from WWI. Zimbabwe also had issued debt in other currencies.

    There are not a lot of samples but this is how it has worked.
    May 1, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Your Portfolio Should Not Have 20% In Gold And 30% In Cash [View article]
    a bear market could start tomorrow but would not change the fact that the stock market has an up year about 70% of the time
    May 1, 2014. 08:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiny Houses Can Help Grow A Huge Portfolio [View article]
    I mentioned that the idea of such a small house is a non-starter for most people but the concept is interesting and in general terms; simplification where possible and practical is a net positive.

    Clearly simplification will mean different things to different people.
    Apr 11, 2014. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Can't Retire At 30, Then How About 38? [View article]
    See my comment above about volunteerism--you have an opportunity by virtue of age to help a lot of people for a lot of years.

    In addition to my wife's work in animal rescue I am VERY involved with the volunteer fire department where I live and have been for many years already.

    Based on how you describe your situation you have an opportunity to be very productive.
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Can't Retire At 30, Then How About 38? [View article]
    Today's Tom Sawyer (great alias)

    Why is the alternative to a white collar career puttering on a desert golf course? A lot of people do meaningful volunteer work. My wife volunteers full time for a dog rescue coordinating adoptions, doing marketing, social media for the rescue and a few other things. It is a full time vocation that she loves but happens to not get paid for.

    The alternatives to a white collar career are endless. Around here people do seasonal work at state/national parks as one of many other examples.
    Feb 20, 2014. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Can't Retire At 30, Then How About 38? [View article]
    No affiliation to Marketwatch and no income for this or any SA article.

    These types of articles about what other people have done are, for me, fun to read and fun to write about. Your hang up on "promotion" is off the mark. I've been blogging for many of years and generating little to no revenue from posts on my site, it is simply fun.

    The pay off has been in having some life experiences I probably would not have otherwise had--meeting people, going to the NYSE a bunch of times (fun), speaking at some conferences and a few other things.

    The article is not meant to be a step by step manual, just a light read that might get a couple of people to think about retirement in a way they had not done so before and so maybe get motivated to change their thought process.

    You complained when you incorrectly thought I did not respond and then you complained when you found out I had responded so I expect you'll complain again but there is no way to entirely recreate a nine year thread on every post.
    Feb 20, 2014. 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment