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Roger Nusbaum

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  • Karl Popper And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    I would love to hear what Roger and others believe could result in a true Black Swan kind of diaster for those DGIs that buy great companies at fair prices.


    The definition of black swan is that which cannot be reasonably predicted as I said in the article. Obviously things like poor stock picking and rising rates are threats that are reasonably predicted as has been playing out in a couple of areas like mortgage REITs.

    There may not be any sort of black swan (or white swan for that matter), I don't know. My point is that if there ever is some sort of event then portfolios that are over-exposed to a bunch of companies with very similar attributes would be hurt.

    I don't wish that to happen to anyone but the risk is obvious even if it never plays out. I might be wrong but it seems like many people in this group (not all but many) don't understand there is risk.

    Every segment of the market has risk. This is only a bad thing when people don't realize the risk they are taking and I perceive that to be the case with many of the commenters based on their comments.
    Aug 5 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Woe Is The Asset Allocator? [View article]
    giving that sort of advice seems like a compliance problem so I need to pass. sorry
    Jul 27 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEF Firecracker [View article]
    Chester, it all depends on the proportioning relative to the portfolio. Also the context of the article I linked to was for retirees who presumably are living off the income.
    Jul 27 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEF Firecracker [View article]
    There is a continuing thread to my post from many years of writing that I should have included here which is that while freak outs usually are buying opportunities there will be people who own a lot of CEFs who see all of their funds go down a lot and will panic sell. That is the context behind not believing in owning a bunch of these.

    The other point I would include is that these are funds and in a rising rate environment, should that ever happen, the freak outs may not buying opportunities. .

    To ccbigs3, From mid may until now MHI is down 11.77%, PMX is down 14.3%, PMF is down 22.05% and MVF is down 14.90%. For most of these funds that is 2-3 years of income. Not a big deal if the funds come back and not a big deal if the CEF exposure in the portfolio is small but if rates go meaningfully higher from here and this is a large portion of the portfolio then it could become a problem.

    To RoyalAce, the article I linked to might have been calling for total exposure, as I said it was not clear. i take that you are relatively new to this site given the 42 comments. If that is correct, then I can tell you there have been dozens of articles over the years from many contributors each with many comments that did advocate for large exposure. I go back to 2005 here and I am telling you people do advocate this way.
    Jul 25 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bogle Says Social Security Is Fixed Income [View article]
    "Why would the investor NOT be adding more money to his 300k nest egg that he created?"

    I took Bogle to be saying the $300k was how much was accumulated at retirement (obviously some have more and many have less). Clearly, he is saying that the $300k in equities would grow as might the income produced.
    Jul 21 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Just Do Something, Stand There [View article]
    selling 75% sounds like a lot and potentially very tax unfriendly unless it is an IRA of some sort.
    Jul 16 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Just Do Something, Stand There [View article]
    thank you for all the positive comments
    Jul 16 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think In Terms Of Years And Decades [View article]
    The "DG investor community on SA" has members that have been certified? Certified in what? They buy stocks that have guarantees? What are the available guarantees?
    Jul 15 05:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Ice cream sales melted over 10% due to the unseasonably cold spring.

    As Red Sox announcer Jerry Remy would say, every day is a good day for ice cream:-)
    Apr 25 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Beating The Market' Makes For An Incomplete Discussion [View article]
    After 4600 posts on my blog i would hope it would be clear that sales pitches are not high on the priority list.
    Apr 15 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Are Not Bond Proxies [View article]
    Bell Atlantic bought (merged with?) GTE back in the early or mid 1990s. Wow, haven't thought about that one in a while. I owned GTE back then for clients when I was a retail broker.
    Apr 14 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Hard To Get Yield Just Using ETFs [View article]
    Exactly, that is what turned out to be the incorrect chart that i found when i first compared the two. I posted it as a warning of sorts that the Yahoo charts can appear to be incorrect. It was Brad comment I was referring to when I said someone noted a 96% correlation. Similar to Brad's follow up comment above a reader on my blog noted that changing the dates slightly might help with the problem Yahoo has.
    Apr 14 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Beating The Market' Makes For An Incomplete Discussion [View article]
    "5% real (after inflation) return over any 5 years period regardless of what market is doing"

    Depends on the five year period.
    Apr 14 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Are Not Bond Proxies [View article]
    first sentence would NOT be going far enough
    Apr 13 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Are Not Bond Proxies [View article]
    Married for 63 years? To say that is awesome would be going far enough.

    You said you've owned Verizon since 1972 so obviously you had the original AT&T. What did you do with the other Baby Bell stocks? If you don't still own them then that implies some active decision making.

    Any type of strategy *can* work for anyone. If you own no bonds and feel your strategy has been successful and met your needs (not second guessing, simply pointing out a question that people need to answer for themselves) then it has been right for you. Conversely there will be people who have been successful and met their needs using just bonds.

    To the extent you wish to stay engaged with markets (if you are reading this site then you probably plan to continue to engage) then part of the work would be some sort of forward looking study to maintain a basis for expecting what you have done to continue to work.
    Apr 13 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment