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Roger Nusbaum  

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  • 5 Reasons Your Shouldn't Retire? There's More Than 5 [View article]
    thanks for the kind word
    Sep 18, 2013. 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Time Horizon [View article]
    Actually I think a portfolio with too high of a yield is less diversified than you might think even if you own various sectors or industries. I am not sure at what yield diversification actually decreases but at 3% I think there is pretty good diversification to be had.

    I've written about this point many times, it is a matter of opinion on my part--obviously anyone else may be inclined to view it differently.
    Sep 18, 2013. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Time Horizon [View article]
    I think DG investing OR capital gain investing (as you put it) is a false dichotomy versus a total return.

    In the context of the 4% rule, these days I think a diversified portfolio can yield close to 3% without extreme biases/tilts embedded.
    Sep 15, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Time Horizon [View article]
    You're missing a big point here. The 9% you cite is backward looking. Future returns might be better than 9%, the same or worse; there is no way to know and that outcome will be completely out of your control.

    What if equity returns only average 3%? From March, 2000 to now they are less then that and at 3% you would be lucky to beat inflation. That is not a prediction, the point is we don't know and have no control.

    If equity returns are lower than 9% and the party is over for the bond market then returns could be lower than what people might be used to.
    Sep 15, 2013. 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Peter Schiff On U.S. Debt [View article]
    "from 1900 to 2013..."

    The price of gold was fixed for a large portion of that time period.
    Sep 12, 2013. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Peter Schiff On U.S. Debt [View article]
    The only alternative to the USD as a world reserve currency is no world reserve currency. Only the euro is big enough (maybe the yuan, not sure).
    Sep 11, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Peter Schiff On U.S. Debt [View article]
    Any outcome is possible but I think that we have ample evidence in the last five years that we will do anything to try to prevent short term pain.

    This is not an original thought but many have noted that our attempts to prevent normal recessions lead to the great recession (rates too low for too long ten years ago).
    Sep 11, 2013. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Interviews Cliff Asness [View article]
    To the extent that risk parity usually includes levering up the fixed income to to create parity in the risk I am not sure what Asness, or for that matter Dalio will do if rates indeed go higher.
    Sep 2, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Our Economy Simply Does Not Produce Enough Jobs' [View article]

    great comment, thank you for sharing.
    Aug 31, 2013. 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Grim Savings Numbers [View article]
    There are two contextual points to these posts. One is that I try to share not only what people are not doing but also what they are doing to create their own solution as a way of getting people think beyond the typical thing.

    The other point is that people who spend time reading stock market content on blogs (implying they probably have a high level of interest) are often a go-to person in their social and family circles for advice about saving, investing and budgeting and while you might be doing fine you may know people who are not.
    Aug 30, 2013. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Most Important Investing Advantage - Time [View article]
    No question RRGR has having a tough run and that is on me. It is a global fund that includes emerging markets and the dispersion between emerging and domestic is as wide as I have ever seen excluding a crisis along the lines of the Asian contagion.

    Indexing is one of many valid strategies. No valid strategy can be the best at for all times. A valid strategy will at times be the best and at times the worst. If your investing career lasts another 50 years I promise you that your preference for indexing will have periods like most of the previous decade where it was about the worst and periods like the most recent run where it is about the best.
    Aug 11, 2013. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Karl Popper And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    I would love to hear what Roger and others believe could result in a true Black Swan kind of diaster for those DGIs that buy great companies at fair prices.


    The definition of black swan is that which cannot be reasonably predicted as I said in the article. Obviously things like poor stock picking and rising rates are threats that are reasonably predicted as has been playing out in a couple of areas like mortgage REITs.

    There may not be any sort of black swan (or white swan for that matter), I don't know. My point is that if there ever is some sort of event then portfolios that are over-exposed to a bunch of companies with very similar attributes would be hurt.

    I don't wish that to happen to anyone but the risk is obvious even if it never plays out. I might be wrong but it seems like many people in this group (not all but many) don't understand there is risk.

    Every segment of the market has risk. This is only a bad thing when people don't realize the risk they are taking and I perceive that to be the case with many of the commenters based on their comments.
    Aug 5, 2013. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Woe Is The Asset Allocator? [View article]
    giving that sort of advice seems like a compliance problem so I need to pass. sorry
    Jul 27, 2013. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEF Firecracker [View article]
    Chester, it all depends on the proportioning relative to the portfolio. Also the context of the article I linked to was for retirees who presumably are living off the income.
    Jul 27, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEF Firecracker [View article]
    There is a continuing thread to my post from many years of writing that I should have included here which is that while freak outs usually are buying opportunities there will be people who own a lot of CEFs who see all of their funds go down a lot and will panic sell. That is the context behind not believing in owning a bunch of these.

    The other point I would include is that these are funds and in a rising rate environment, should that ever happen, the freak outs may not buying opportunities. .

    To ccbigs3, From mid may until now MHI is down 11.77%, PMX is down 14.3%, PMF is down 22.05% and MVF is down 14.90%. For most of these funds that is 2-3 years of income. Not a big deal if the funds come back and not a big deal if the CEF exposure in the portfolio is small but if rates go meaningfully higher from here and this is a large portion of the portfolio then it could become a problem.

    To RoyalAce, the article I linked to might have been calling for total exposure, as I said it was not clear. i take that you are relatively new to this site given the 42 comments. If that is correct, then I can tell you there have been dozens of articles over the years from many contributors each with many comments that did advocate for large exposure. I go back to 2005 here and I am telling you people do advocate this way.
    Jul 25, 2013. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment