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Roger Nusbaum  

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  • An 8 ETF WisdomTree Lazy Portfolio [View article]
    the link is embedded into the first sentence of this article where it says "interesting article." It lists Siegel's portfolio there.
    Sep 18, 2007. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tune Out The Hype Machine [View article]
    I am abut 80% long, as that article you link to says, I made a couple of tweaks. did you actually read it? Seriously, you are adding 1+1 and getting eleven.

    The entire context is don't panic when the market panics and stick to whatever your exit strategy is. I am picking on you because you seem to come at me very hard without having read the entire article.
    Sep 13, 2007. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tune Out The Hype Machine [View article]
    you can read my past articles for full context of what I expect, if you care, but I am saying the market is way more worried than the fundies dictate and you are basically saying this time will be different.
    Sep 13, 2007. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tune Out The Hype Machine [View article]
    I did not say to buy anything. There is a fear that there will be real problems from the commercial paper roll next week. The commercial paper market is already fixing itself a little. If we are talking about the mortgage resets months before it happens the effect will be very muted.
    Sep 13, 2007. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tune Out The Hype Machine [View article]
    um yeah, I disclosed adding about 1.5% to a double short fund as a hedge. if you call that short the market you are adding 1+1 and getting eleven.
    Sep 13, 2007. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tune Out The Hype Machine [View article]
    see the above for some context, see past articles for more context, I am just saying that these two items will not drive the bus the way people expect. a measurable chunk of the mortgages have already reset and stocks are only down 5%.

    The bigger thing is access to new capital for new mortgages that is impeded by the slope of the yield curve. The Allison Trannie deal shows there will be a way around the short term funding issues.
    Sep 12, 2007. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tune Out The Hype Machine [View article]
    what about Y2k? the precedent of big bad events having almost no impact is vast. I am no perma bull, I have written about being hedged for several months, have been expecting a recession since the yield curve inverted, predicted that the market would finish 2007 down 5%. I am just saying that the rolling of commercial paper will play almost no role.
    Sep 12, 2007. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Index To Hit 66? [View article]
    I wrote about this a couple of years ago. The path I think I see is the dollar and the US become a little less important to the world economic order than it used to be. i think this means slower growth, slightly lower stock market returns and slightly higher interest rates.
    Sep 12, 2007. 07:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Geoff Considine's Model ETF Portfolio [View article]
    I don't know how this portfolio did, I don't know which portfolio that I wrote about that you are referring to or how it did but the focus of this post was the risk taken to get the return.

    100% in Garmin would have been even better.

    26% in energy is a big bet, you either agree with that or not; I guess not.
    Sep 10, 2007. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Was a Bad Month - But Keep It In Perspective [View article]
    the facts you cite cause emotional responses and the point of the post is to not get emotional.

    you are adding 1+1 and getting eleven if you think that was a sales pitch.
    Sep 5, 2007. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Was a Bad Month - But Keep It In Perspective [View article]
    most of the gain came on the last day of the month. other than that it was a volatile month, good for you if felt nothing from the volatility, that is exactly what I am trying to convey...leave emotions out of it.
    Sep 5, 2007. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Weightings, Market Timing and Moving To Cash [View article]
    No one determines. A sector gets hot or cold which will change the weighting. I suppose S&P could alter the weighting with additions and deletions too.
    Sep 1, 2007. 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Syndicated Bloggers Should Be Compensated More Fairly [View article]
    lol, i'm a wh&%* who doesn't get paid.
    Aug 22, 2007. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resource-Rich Countries Fare Worse In Global Credit Crunch [View article]
    I think it might be because BHP had about a 25% hit at its worst and BHP makes up 11% of EWA but a much smaller number for the ASX 200 so EWA did much worse than the ASX 200.
    Aug 22, 2007. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Monthly Adjustable Mortgage Reset Values and a Look Ahead [View article]
    Obviously I am not sure but the variable is how many of the 4 million, which seems like a reasonable number, will be hurt on a month to month basis; it won't be be all of them but it may be a lot.
    Aug 20, 2007. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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