it is not very difficult to isolate stocks with this potential but knowing when the party is over is obviously incredibly difficult. six months ago NFLX was $235 on its way to $300. that would have been a tough short to ride out.
David, our list of countries we own is long and for now demographics are not the first priority although they contribute to our having underweighted and then avoiding big western Europe (the EMU countries). Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Israel, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Denmark and China. We sold out of Australia recently but will go back in soon I imagine. Countries where I think demographics might be better and worth going into would be Turkey, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Peru and maybe Mongolia. Interesting note, I believe Egypt's demographics are too good, that is the population is growing too fast which is an interesting concept.
I think the demographic idea is one that will pick up slowly but then increasingly, making it not crucial for 2011 or 2012.
Dividends Matter a Lot, But Not More Than Proper Diversification [View article]
actually I don't like that first answer.
you won't believe me but I do understand the point and you are less likely to believe this but I understand the point better than you do. I'm sorry for how that comes off but it is quite clear that it is true.
What's in the iShares Silver ETF? Silver! [View article]
SLV has been around since 2006. the physically backed funds sell a little to pay the expense ratio. a newer fund like SIVR in this case will always have a nominally higher price because it has been paying the expense ratio for a shorter time.
my "quest" is giving clients the best chance I can for them to have enough money when they need it and as a secondary "quest" to try to smooth out the ride for them as much as possible.
I am saying the idea that value cannot be added with active decision making is not universally true. Further, it is not as simple as black and white. We try to add value over an entire stock market cycle, And while we are quite a ways ahead over the market since inception (which again was our goal), there have been individual years where we beat, others where we have lagged all combined to our stated objective. Not to be take as a commercial as I am FAR from alone. People willing to take the time to educate themselves should explore both sides of the argument before figuring what is best for them and Swedroe does not give a balanced view. Clearly indexing will turn out to be better for many market participants but not all.
Income Investors Take Note: Man Can't Live on Dividends Alone [View article]
If I understand your main point, I would add that relying on any single strategy can be risky. Anything that is sound might not work out. Part of this is how comfortable one is with probable and possible. Dividend investing will PROBABLY always work but it is POSSIBLE that something unexpected could come along and really "break" the strategy.
Income Investors Take Note: Man Can't Live on Dividends Alone [View article]
There are countless studies from different sources that draw the same conclusion about a 4% withdrawal rate having a 90-95% success rate (that is not outliving your money).
From where I sit a combination of price appreciation, stock dividends and bond interest over a long period of time works if the account holder can stick to 4%. There will of course be down years but the number crunching behind the 4% rule takes that into account. There is no guarantee but the numbers can work.
You're Retiring: Where Is Your Income Going to Come From? [View article]
Part of the process for me in build the portfolio is selecting what I think are the best exposures for each sector, country and theme. Some sectors, countries and themes lend themselves to being dividend centric and some not.
We've owned VALE and STO each for about six years (subject to shaving down and adding back in). In that time VALE is up 500%--for this name I don't really care about the dividend, I view the name as a great way to own Brazil, materials and volatility for the long term.
STO is up about 95% so the annually paid 4-5% dividend has been a much more important component to why we want the name.
In buying tech stocks, although several now have very good yields it not the primary consideration but it would be more important with utilities and telecom.
Energy and financials are examples where we want a mix of high yielders and what we hope will be fast growers.
Active Management With Passive Investment Products [View article]
thanks for the comments Tim. Over the years I've done a little reading about volatility, risk, the differences and similarities and FWIW drawn the conclusion made above--I am far from the only person thinking the two are different of course there is no reason I have to be right either. Thanks for inspiring the post.
Four Financial Farces That Will End in Disaster [View article]
Regarding Farce #1. How do Japan's problems hurt Europe? While it might be very stupid for Japan to give money to Europe, in theory the Japanese could give enough money to Europe to bail everyone in Europe out entirely fixing Europe while at the same time bringing about its own demise ("its" meaning Japan).
While bailing out anyone might be a stupid thing for Japan to do, they could do it. I'm very much a Japan bear but this particular farce doesn't seem to be a problem for the reason you laid out. It would be a different sort of problem.
Are We a Nation of Financial Wusses? [View article]
a FAT wuss?
Not that you should read any of my stuff but many times, where hopefully relevant, I've thrown in "don't drink soda." While I do not know how much it would help with obesity, if people eliminated soda it would make them healthier.
Cardinal Rule for Today's Market: Don't Be a Sucker [View article]
for some context, I have said frequently there have been and will be trades along the way for those so inclined but that is not the type of risk I am willing to take for clients.
Netflix Will Always Be A Fad Stock [View article]
Never Too Late To Plan For Retirement [View article]
Funny, that is what I have been doing full time since 2003. Thanks for the comment.
Prospects For U.S. Stocks Grim [View article]
I think the demographic idea is one that will pick up slowly but then increasingly, making it not crucial for 2011 or 2012.
Dividends Matter a Lot, But Not More Than Proper Diversification [View article]
you won't believe me but I do understand the point and you are less likely to believe this but I understand the point better than you do. I'm sorry for how that comes off but it is quite clear that it is true.
What's in the iShares Silver ETF? Silver! [View article]
Why Nouriel Roubini Is Wrong on China's Economy [View article]
Swedroe Is Limited Conceptually [View article]
Swedroe Is Limited Conceptually [View article]
Income Investors Take Note: Man Can't Live on Dividends Alone [View article]
Income Investors Take Note: Man Can't Live on Dividends Alone [View article]
From where I sit a combination of price appreciation, stock dividends and bond interest over a long period of time works if the account holder can stick to 4%. There will of course be down years but the number crunching behind the 4% rule takes that into account. There is no guarantee but the numbers can work.
You're Retiring: Where Is Your Income Going to Come From? [View article]
We've owned VALE and STO each for about six years (subject to shaving down and adding back in). In that time VALE is up 500%--for this name I don't really care about the dividend, I view the name as a great way to own Brazil, materials and volatility for the long term.
STO is up about 95% so the annually paid 4-5% dividend has been a much more important component to why we want the name.
In buying tech stocks, although several now have very good yields it not the primary consideration but it would be more important with utilities and telecom.
Energy and financials are examples where we want a mix of high yielders and what we hope will be fast growers.
hope that makes sense
Active Management With Passive Investment Products [View article]
Four Financial Farces That Will End in Disaster [View article]
While bailing out anyone might be a stupid thing for Japan to do, they could do it. I'm very much a Japan bear but this particular farce doesn't seem to be a problem for the reason you laid out. It would be a different sort of problem.
Are We a Nation of Financial Wusses? [View article]
Not that you should read any of my stuff but many times, where hopefully relevant, I've thrown in "don't drink soda." While I do not know how much it would help with obesity, if people eliminated soda it would make them healthier.
Cardinal Rule for Today's Market: Don't Be a Sucker [View article]