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Roger Nusbaum

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  • Holding Stocks Long Term [View article]
    trading as you describe it in your example is difficult but not impossible. Any given investor can "figure out" a given stock and trade it successfully and so there is no reason not to do this in the context we are talking about. The difficulty then becomes realizing when the thing you've figured out changes--at some point it will of course.
    Apr 27 10:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Withdrawal Rates: It's About More Than The Math [View article]
    The numbers cited in various places cast doubt on the ability to pay full benefits (the age is going up). With that as a starting point, combined with what I believe will be incorrect analysis in terms of understating the problem, GDP growth rates that are less than what we;ve been accustomed to, the US political cycle not being conducive to long term problem solving and maybe one or two others...Occam's razor.

    Others have said it will become a welfare program and I think that is very plausible.
    Apr 17 10:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Response To Chuck Carnevale [View article]
    In 1987 I was in college and cold calling at night at Dean Witter. The broker I worked for told me not to come in that day and that it would be a while before I could work again.

    1987 was a fast decline. Fast declines are better to be held on to or if there is cash they are better to be bought. Bear markets start slowly, look back to see how the market wasn't down that much six months after the March 2000 peak or six months after the October 2007 peak.

    I bought an ETF for clients in the middle of the flash crash as evidence of walking the walk--this is posted on my blog, probably the day after which is how I disseminate portfolio moves, you can check for yourself if you care.
    Apr 13 08:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Withdrawal Rates For Portfolio Sustainability [View article]
    thank you for sharing in such detail
    Apr 2 08:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha 1,000,000: The Greatest Hits, Editorial Edition [View article]
    Wow Judy, thank you for the very kind word.
    Mar 26 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Face Of Retirement? It's A Dog's Life [View article]
    great story, thank you
    Dec 19 08:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 REITs To Consider Despite Roger Nusbaum's Opinion [View article]
    Good stuff although you may not get many readers with my name in the title! <humor attempt>
    Dec 19 08:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement: To Arrive At Your Real Number, Consider Expenses Rather Than Income [View article]

    I gave specifics of having two phonelines and an expensive tv package. These wouldn't seem to be unusual for many people and so could be a place to cut back. I did not say cut back on home heating I said that the price volatility could work in people's favor sometimes, one year our propane bill dropped dramatically because of market prices as an example.
    Nov 3 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Will Always Be A Fad Stock [View article]
    it is not very difficult to isolate stocks with this potential but knowing when the party is over is obviously incredibly difficult. six months ago NFLX was $235 on its way to $300. that would have been a tough short to ride out.
    Oct 27 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Too Late To Plan For Retirement [View article]
    "Perhaps we should consider part-time consulting out of the home as the post-modern retirement plan."

    Funny, that is what I have been doing full time since 2003. Thanks for the comment.
    Sep 8 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospects For U.S. Stocks Grim [View article]
    David, our list of countries we own is long and for now demographics are not the first priority although they contribute to our having underweighted and then avoiding big western Europe (the EMU countries). Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Israel, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Denmark and China. We sold out of Australia recently but will go back in soon I imagine. Countries where I think demographics might be better and worth going into would be Turkey, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Peru and maybe Mongolia. Interesting note, I believe Egypt's demographics are too good, that is the population is growing too fast which is an interesting concept.

    I think the demographic idea is one that will pick up slowly but then increasingly, making it not crucial for 2011 or 2012.
    Aug 28 09:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter a Lot, But Not More Than Proper Diversification [View article]
    actually I don't like that first answer.

    you won't believe me but I do understand the point and you are less likely to believe this but I understand the point better than you do. I'm sorry for how that comes off but it is quite clear that it is true.
    Jun 15 11:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's in the iShares Silver ETF? Silver! [View article]
    SLV has been around since 2006. the physically backed funds sell a little to pay the expense ratio. a newer fund like SIVR in this case will always have a nominally higher price because it has been paying the expense ratio for a shorter time.
    Apr 24 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nouriel Roubini Is Wrong on China's Economy [View article]
    This reads like an article from 2005 or 2006 about how real estate in the US has never gone down.
    Apr 20 09:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swedroe Is Limited Conceptually [View article]
    my "quest" is giving clients the best chance I can for them to have enough money when they need it and as a secondary "quest" to try to smooth out the ride for them as much as possible.
    Apr 18 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment