Roger Nusbaum

The 75/50 Portfolio: A Process Drilldown

not being for you is ok of course but "trying to beat everything in sight" is not what is being attempted. The goal is less volatility in both directions.


On Oct 24 02:52 PM oldman wrote:

> KISS is my preferred way of investing, not using all these products
> and trying to beat everything in sight. Dangerous, time consuming,
> and is it worth it? Not for me. Just opinion.

PowerShares' DBA and DBC: The New Originals

i'm not sold on the idea of needing to get it all in one product. GCC has energy exposure which as mentioned above is something i'm not interested in (rather get energy exposure through stocks).

for people looking to get it all in one product then GCC's lower weighting makes it more attractive in that context.


On Oct 07 10:19 AM rbbrand wrote:

> Roger, how would you evaluate this new DBA versus GCC?

PowerShares' DBA and DBC: The New Originals

LOL yes it does


On Oct 06 10:24 AM Battlebots wrote:

> The new DBA goes to 11.

Investing in Farmland: Considering Schober's Article

I tried to mention ALEX on CNBC a couple of weeks ago but got diverted to talking about Fannie and Freddie. The company is interesting to me but there are many other parts too that are cyclical. interesting conglomerate is an easier conclusion for me to draw farmland proxy for now.

If i remember correctly CRESY is argentina? if I have that right then no thanks. don't know the other two.


On Sep 06 06:33 PM A. Nony Mouse wrote:

> any thoughts on stocks such as (alex), (alco) (cresy), or (blmc)
> as proxies for owning farmland?

Random Holiday Thoughts

thank you for the holiday wishes and for reading my posts. happy holidays to you as well.


On Dec 24 11:49 AM jepittman wrote:

> Thanks for your posts. I enjoy them. Happy Holidays to you and your
> family.

Lesson From China: A Swift Decline in Commodities Could Happen

The point is about human behavior--at no point does this post compare fundamentals.

Commodities: Is It All Over?

Lisa, when i implement a new client i try to avoid buying GLD after a big spike up. We implemented a bunch of people in early January, at that point GLD had been in a more moderate uptrend than what has gone on more recently. Up trends don't usually dissuade me but big spikes do.

Here's an example. I bought MON for most clients in Oct. It went up a lot and I sold some at around $122. The people that I bought GLD for in Jan, I just bought MON for today in the $96s so there I waited for some pull back. This entry point may be good or it may stink but i waited a while and it came back to me some.

Part of this process it technical, part is my perception of market sentiment. I've been in the business one way or another since 1984 so my expeerience in terms of what i have obverved gives me some confidence about this sort of thing. Obviously I get plenty wrong but the point is sometime sentiment matters a lot and sometimes it doesn't, likewise technicals.

Wheat in the Teens?

maybe the money going into the front month was unwinding the MF rogue trader's position? he lost money so i guess he was short?

could that be?

Roger Nusbaum on Commodities: Crucial to Know How the Market Operates

valid criticisms. are you saying that by owning one broad based commodity index, you don't need to look under the hood and know what is going on? I feel like I would. The only commodity I own for clients is gold for the reasons stated at a very small weight as also stated.

You like broad based, I don't, so what? I do what I think is best and what I am most comfortable with as I am sure you do. You should feel free to put up a blog and express your views. Readers can learn from differing views to come up with their own thoughts about what is best for them.

Model ETF Portfolio: Bearish But Not Willing To Bet It All

this makes a great point. I view it from a little bigger picture; a little over a year ago I swapped out of AU into GLD thinking the miners were too far ahead of the metal. this will ebb and flow. it does seem that the miners are now cheap but i don't have the conviction to swap back.

Model ETF Portfolio: Bearish But Not Willing To Bet It All

i have never thought of this, for all I know you are kidding, can't say anything negative other than it clearly would be time intensive.