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Rohan C. Pease's  Instablog

Rohan C. Pease is a graduate of the University of Arizona's Eller College of Business and Public Administration. he holds a degree in Finance with a stong emphasis in Banking and Derivatives. Visit: Arizona Electric Power Cooperative (http://www.aepco.coop/)
My business:
Arizona Electric Power Cooperative
  • China Breads Iron Ore Monster - Fortescue Metals Group
    Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), Australia’s third largest producer of Iron ore is taking enormous measures to grow capacity in an effort to satisfy China’s growth. The Chinese, after being scorned by FMG’s Australian rival Rio Tinto, is now ready to provide FMG with the cheap long term financing it had waiting for Rio Tinto, $6Billion worth. FMG is a newly formed mining company who has used their extensive rail network to gobble up market share from Aussie junior miners as their infrastructure investment pays off in spades. Now with the backing of the Chinese, FMG is looking to more then double their output in less than 3 years. Ultimately I see the stock trading at approx $5.66 by the end of the year, a 51% increase from today’s share price.
     
    The terms of the financing should be favorable to FMG’s shareholders since the debt will be long term and will be structured as a typical mining loan which includes provisions for infrastructure spending. This will ensure shareholders equity will not be diluted from the closing of the deal. The deal does however include FMG giving the Chinese a nice discount on their iron ore currently being shipped this year in return for the financing. FMG has agreed to sell 20M tones to China in the second half of 2009 at a benchmark in the low $60 range while competitors are selling ore at least $10 higher per tone, while spot prices are nearing the century mark. This discount is included in my analysis and is worth FMG doing in order to obtain the financing. Iron ore pricing is in a long term bull trend, and demand is structurally supportive coming from emerging markets.
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    Aug 19 03:22 pm | Link | Comment!
  • US Dollar - Continued weaknes opens trading range in commodities
    The speculation that the FED was to ease liquidity programs put some upward pressure on the US dollar, now with the FED rate meeting over those pressures are abating. The US Dollar cannot break above its 50DMA of approx 80 and the now downward sloping 200DMA curve at 83 is placing downward price pressure on the dollar. I predict a continued weakening of the dollar until the convergence of the 50 & 200 day curves. This weakening will take the form of a prolonged flattening of the US dollar, and will provide an excellent trading range for commodities. Opening up a buying entry at 79 on the DXY and indicating sell signals around the 76 range.
     
    The Brazilian Real seems to be one of the strongest currencies in the face of the US dollar currently. Increased trade with the US as well as a healthy vibrant domestic economy is fueling the rally. The current conversion rate is 1.8443 Real / USD which is up significantly from 1.8890 during the last week of July, an increase of 2.4%. I predict that the Real will strengthen against the US dollar to the tune of 1.710 Real / USD.
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    Aug 18 06:20 pm | Link | Comment!
  • VALE SA - Vertical Integration in Mining Drives Growth

    Companhia Vale do Rio Doce or VALE SA, the second largest mining company in the world is taking large steps to grow organically thru vertical integration versus thru widely speculated acquisitions. VALE is the world’s largest iron ore producer, but thru strategic asset purchases is becoming a sophisticated miner with supreme logistical reach.

    Recently in the second quarter VALE inked a deal with local Oil titan Petrobras to provide natural gas supplies for their aluminum smelters, a precursor to further oil exploration in their goal of diversifying their revenue stream. VALE also has energy interests in the utility sector operating nine hydroelectric plants. Their most recent announcement is news of further expanding their maritime fleet from 15 dry bulk carriers to 35, each with 400,000dwt capacity. With rising Chinese demand for its iron ore and changing waters in the pricing mechanisms, Vale is looking to capitalize on emerging GDP growth and close the gap with its Australian counterparts.  
     
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    Aug 05 12:05 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Precious Metals - Buy Platinum / Short Gold

    Back on June 10 I wrote an article recommending investors buy palladium and sell short platinum because platinum had become too expensive for industrial use. Shorting platinum was a hedge against palladium falling in value, palladium should outperform platinum in the short run; and therefore investors could take advantage of the low risk spread between the two.

    So far as of the close on July 16, Palladium has fallen 3.1% and platinum has slipped 8.7%, which if you followed my recommendation would have yielded 5.6% return since June 10. (Note - both decreased in value, highlighting the importance of being properly hedged)

    Now with the return of the auto industry to stabilization, GM bankruptcy finalized, and supply restrictions in South Africa coming back to the forefront; I think it's time investors get back in to platinum. Of Corse I don't recommend going long platinum itself without a hedge.

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    Tags: GOLD
    Jul 16 07:03 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Platinum v. Palladium – Historical Spreads

     

    Investors should sell platinum and buy palladium as platinum becomes expensive for industrial use. Approx 2/3 of the supply of platinum is used for industrial uses; primarily in car manufacturing (catalytic converters, spark plugs), high end electronic instruments, missiles, and jet engines. The rest of supply is doled out for jewelry and held in ETF’s for safe haven investments for investors. In the coming months supply restrictions, improving economic conditions and labor disputes will cause palladium to rise over the next year.
     
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    Jun 10 06:49 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Base Metals Weekly

     

    Base Metals Report  &nbs...                                                           
     
    More »
    Jun 08 03:08 pm | Link | Comment!
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StockTalks

  • Petrobras - PBR will bounce off of 200DMA @ 34.59 with strong volume next week. Technicals point to 38.60
    Apr 18, 2009
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