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Rolf Norfolk

 
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  • Gold's Correlation to GDP and Debt: Why Some Gold Fever Is Just Bearishness on Everything Else [View article]
    Hi Ofh: gold seems more closely related to sentiment than anything else. I'd say it's a long-term or open-ended investment, because you never know when it will "come right". I do think it has some relation to perceptions of monetary inflation, but it's not chained.

    All the trend or average does is say for what percentage of the time you may anticipate being above or below the long run average. Currently I'd see gold as fair value rather than a bargain - but not a bubble.

    In my area, there are a number of shops that have sprung up to buy gold; I don't a see a panic among the public to buy.

    Another complicating factor is the greatly increased inequality of income and wealth since the last "gold bubble" in 1980. The poorer sort haven't money to buy gold, the richer have no need to sell. I'm wondering whether share prices etc are supported by that factor.
    Dec 7, 2012. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    Don't think you are incorrect. Except "we can do a little English consumer and business credit availability" - banks are unwilling to lend to business now, here in the UK.

    The problem with the Keynesian approach is that in a democracy it is very tempting for politicians to continue stimulus into boom in order to keep the feelgood factor that gets them re-elected. Now we're starting with a colossal debt, before we begin (if we do) to stimulate.
    Nov 2, 2012. 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    I'm no examiner! But the way I read it, QE isn't stimulus, it's extending a line of credit to government via the banks, and the banks benefit from a trickle of interest on it. However I suspect quite a lot of the trickle ends up as continuing the executive bonus stream rather than pumping up reserves; perhaps someone else can inform me of the error of *my* ways?

    As government uses the credit to continue spending on social benefits and its own workforce, the quantity of money increases in the economy, offsetting the effects of a downturn in velocity. Carrying on as you are doesn't increase demand - people aren't eating more merely because there's more cash in the system.

    Inflation will come if velocity picks up for some reason, multiplying an increased monetary base. Or if this money-go-round has to stop, maybe that's when government will print its own feed directly.

    I'm still learning, but I suspect hyperinflation happens as a result of events affecting dealings with foreign nations; absent that, QE could continue for a long time - couldn't it?
    Nov 1, 2012. 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    I'd like to see a comparison of the relative impact on middle earners of taxes vs. the combination of mortgage and consumer debt, student loan repayments and medical insurance.
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    I like Max Keiser... even if he verges on the gonzo sometimes.
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    People underestimate the power of idealism in America.
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    Until debt is written off.
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    If people didn't have so much debt they wouldn't have to earn so much, so wage rates could come down and American workers could compete on more nearly equal terms.

    For what it's worth, I think the USA has more going for it than the UK - more land, natural resources, skilled workforce, entrepreneurial and inventive culture, a far bigger domestic market. The elements of the solution are there once certain vested interests are made to stand aside.
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Money Velocity At Historic Low [View article]
    Think you're right - eventually. That's what will make capital preservation so difficult - first the suck, then the blow.
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russell Napier and 'S&P 400' [View article]
    Remember the old adage, you don't give a prediction and a time. The state of the market is the state of the betting. I'm out of it.
    May 27, 2012. 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver As A Protection Against The Powerful Socialists [View article]
    You buy Powell's idea about an official revaluation of gold? What effect (if any) do you think that would have on the ordinary market?
    May 9, 2012. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver As A Protection Against The Powerful Socialists [View article]
    Will read!
    May 9, 2012. 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver As A Protection Against The Powerful Socialists [View article]
    Hi TJ: I was saving into a PM fund years ago from income, if I'd had capital I'd have piled in - and now I'd have all I want materially. Sadly life doesn't always give you the bullets when you need them. Holding off because of the price, but feeling may have to get in for fear that cash will rot to nothing.
    May 9, 2012. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver As A Protection Against The Powerful Socialists [View article]
    Hi, Blue Sun. The powerful are here already. Nothing helps if society falls completely - e.g. invasion - but part of the idea of being free in any society is having your own stuff. International trade and the change in the money system has been used to hoover us out of jobs and savings - or maybe it's just happened that way and nobody caused it?.
    May 9, 2012. 01:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver As A Protection Against The Powerful Socialists [View article]
    Because the macro is much more important these days. We face potential systemic collapse and radical political and social realignments.

    This piece opens with the macro comments of Hugo Salinas Price and moves on to those of James Goldsmith, both billionaires.

    I'd also like to draw your attention to the graph in this piece on Zero Hedge: http://bit.ly/K94DBP - showing (though Tyler Durden doesn't emphasise this) the abrupt leap in Berkshire Hathaway's holding of cash and marketable securities - at the start of 1999 - and the climb since then to a record high. That surely embodies a view.

    I'm willing to learn from extremely rich men.
    May 8, 2012. 03:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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