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Roman Chuyan, CFA  

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  • Oil Price: Beginning Of A Downtrend
    Oct. 28, 2014 IYE, OIL, USO 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The IEA's Mid-Term Oil Market Balance may be the only chart you need, to assess longer-term oil suply-demand.
    • Based on abundand supply and slow demand growth, the recent drop in oil price is likely the beginning of a downtrend.
    • Investment implicaitons: exposures to crude oil and oil producer stocks are not recommended.
  • Is The S&P 500 Valuation High Or Average?
    Oct. 7, 2014 TTM, VTI, SPY 16 Comments

    Summary

    • When looking closely at the calculation of popular valuation metric Shiller's P/E, we found significant shortfalls.
    • Using "good old" trailing P/E avoids those shortfalls, and works better as predictor of near-term equity market returns.
    • The S&P 500 is trading at 17.7 TTM earnings, which is close to 10-year average and to the average since 1980.
  • Don't Fret The Fed
    Sep. 19, 2014 IVW, QQQ, RPG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The end of QE and zero-rate policies have been well communicated by the Fed, and are largely priced-in by markets.
    • U.S. inflation had better stay close to 2% (1.72% now) for reasonable economic growth. If unsure, look at Europe.
    • The Fed's execution in the past five years has been flawless, and there is no reason to doubt it now.
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs
    Sep. 13, 2014 VTI, SPY, IVV 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Fundamentals drive markets, not geopolitics.
    • Despite high volume of negativity in the media, U.S. economic fundamentals are very strong.
    • The equity rally is justified based on fundamentals, and is expected to continue.
  • Equity Rally Is Just Getting Started
    Jun. 8, 2014 GLD, IEF, IJR 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Investor sentiment moved to very bearish in May, driven by geopolitics. Investors reduced risk, and now have to get back in.
    • Economic data were very strong in May, including employment (jobless claims and payrolls), housing, consumption, etc.
    • U.S. equities broke out on the upside in 2nd half of May, with all major indices reaching all-time highs.
    • The tectonic sentiment shift from negative back to positive is starting, and will support the strong equity rally.
  • Bond Yields Make Some Sense
    Jun. 3, 2014 BKLN, IEF, REM 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Long-term interest rate falling from 3% at year-end (for 10y Treasury) to 2.46% "don't make any sense" to some observers.
    • They do make sense when we consider the abundant global liquidity, and relative yields around the globe. We expect interest rates to rise gradually from here.
    • I offer tactical fixed-income strategies that reduce exposure to rising rates, while increasing the total portfolio yield, and expected total return.
  • Mortgage REITs Are Buys
    Mar. 23, 2014 AGNC, NLY, REM 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend rates have stabilized for AGNC, other REITs. Our (conservative) expected dividend yield for REM is 12%.
    • At 12% (with no appreciation), expected return exceeds our forecast for equities, and far exceeds other FI assets.
    • Interest rate risk is significant (expected duration of 14), but investors are paid well for the risk.
  • Emerging Market Contagion Creates Buying Opportunity In U.S. Equities
    Feb. 6, 2014 ARGT, ERUS, EWJ 1 Comment
  • Bonds: Low Return, High Risk Asset For 2014 And Beyond
    Dec. 22, 2013 BKLN, IEF, LQD 9 Comments
  • S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Up 3.5%, Q4 May Accelerate
    Nov. 19, 2013 SPY 5 Comments
  • Crude Oil Fundamentals Bad For Price
    Nov. 9, 2013 DBO, OIL, OLO 8 Comments
  • Mortgage REITs Are A Great Buying Opportunity
    Jul. 9, 2013 IYR, RWR, VNQ 9 Comments
  • Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down
    May. 20, 2013 BP, MHFI, STL 9 Comments
  • The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes
    Apr. 16, 2013 GLD 56 Comments
  • Tactical Strategies - Pulling In The Horns
    Apr. 9, 2013 SPY 6 Comments
  • A Rare Buying Opportunity: S&P 500 Return Forecast Is Up To 19.2%
    Dec. 7, 2012 SPY 130 Comments
  • Tactical Asset Allocation Can Be Successful With The Right Model
    Sep. 25, 2012 DIA, QQQ, SPY 12 Comments
  • Fear Of Earnings Slowdown Is Overblown
    Aug. 27, 2012 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!
  • Expected Return For U.S. Equities Remains Positive
    Aug. 15, 2012 SPY 5 Comments
  • PAR Model: Expected S&P 500 6-Month Return Up To 5.1% On Data
    Jul. 20, 2012 SPY Comment!
  • Turning Positive On U.S. Equities
    Jul. 12, 2012 SPY 5 Comments
  • The Performance Analytics Return Model Report: 6-Month Expected Return Improves Slightly, Still Negative
    Jun. 27, 2012 SPY 6 Comments