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Roman Chuyan, CFA

 
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  • Sep Empire State Survey at 27.5 [View news story]
    NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey is 27.5, well above 15.9 expected, 2nd highest since 2006 (after Oct-2009).
    Sep 15 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    Does the 13F include the details whether the Puts are long or short? If short, it's a bullish position, and/or selling volatility.
    Sep 14 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    To folks who argue that labor market is terrible:

    The article is written from an investment manager's standpoint, for investors. We are mainly concerned with how economic factors (labor and others) influence the equity market. Hence its title, "Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs." We think/know that the factors that "matter" for equities (a) were positive this year (and in 2013, different factors) which gave us accurate forward-looking signals, and explains all-time highs in the market, and (b) are still positive, such that the near-term return for US equities is expected to be strong. Sorry it wasn't clear.

    I'm not arguing that the economy/labor market is perfect in general - it is not (if it ever is). There are many problems with employment that you and others pointed out, and income/wealth inequality, etc., etc. I am sorry for the folks who are experiencing those problems. I don't mean to be cynical, but again, our focus here is investment.
    Sep 14 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    Praveen - those are just labels. For an equity investor, what matters is - will stocks deliver a good return over their investment horizon. If you are a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, the horizon is obviously long, say, 10 years, so the question you want answered is - will equities deliver a good annualized return over the next 10y? And please, if you say you are buy-and-hold, don't try to time it.

    For a tactical investor/manager (which we are), the horizon is much shorter, say, 6 months. So, all we care about is - do we expect equities to deliver a good return over the next 6m? The article is written from that standpoint.
    Sep 14 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    thechaser - I did mention labor participation in the article - it's lagging.
    As I said, Durable goods ex transportation is also close to all-time high. And you are right, just one factor would not be a big deal - but strength is broad.
    Sep 13 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    Several comments on interest rates/ the Fed -
    I will cover this, and valuation in the follow-up article - please stay tuned!

    On EPS/ buybacks:
    One thing to keep in mind - the S&P 500 EPS is what's "real" for the S&P 500 valuation, no matter how achieved, through revenue growth, margins, cost cuts, or shares. Btw, the S&P earnings surpassed their prior 2007 peak in 2011, while the index only in 2013.. I'm not saying that stocks are cheap - valuation is above average.. I'll try to cover more ground in the next article.

    Thanks!
    Sep 13 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    I will cover liquidity and valuation in the follow-up article - please stay tuned.
    Sep 13 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    Enso - note, commodities - oil, metals, grains - are all tanking.
    Sep 13 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    JMBishop - your concern that the Fed encourages risk taking is shared by many. The Fed has done a great job supporting the economy, in my view - not so for the ECB with its austerity policy, which now backfired. Granted, cheap and abundant liquidity results in higher asset prices then they would be if rates were higher - but I don't think it has to end badly. I will cover liquidity and valuation in the follow-up article - please stay tuned.
    Sep 13 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    @leopard:
    I think the whole idea of shorting, say, TZA is taking advantage of the 'negative convexity' in its returns. Meaning TZA's returns lag substantially (-3 x Russell 3000) returns. TNA returns also lag 3xR3000. The lag (negative convexity) depends on experienced returns and volatilities, but it's a lot. That's why they all decay, as you noted. The author's strategies short this stream of underperformance, thus earning the alpha. So you have to short a leveraged ETF/ETN in order to earn it, going long 50 TMF + 50%TNA is not a valid test at all.
    Jul 18 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does REM Pay That 15% Dividend? [View article]
    @critter,
    I would not buy but I will hold. If you want to time it as you descried, you would want to do it after div announcement date (when the amount is announced), not ex-div date. On ex-div, the price typically just drops by the amount of the dividend, so it's a wash.
    Jun 17 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does REM Pay That 15% Dividend? [View article]
    If you read what you posted, there was no $2.35 cash-only election. The "most cash" is $0.9159 + .097 shares, which is what happened. So compare WMC's $916 Dec-2013 dividend to $.67 Mar-2014.
    Jun 17 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does REM Pay That 15% Dividend? [View article]
    I think there is confusion about WMC's Jan-28th $2.35 dividend. It included a stock portion, 2.55 mil shares, a 10.5% increase to shares outstanding. I'm not sure if it was passed to REM's shareholders as part of $0.5067 dividend, instead, it may have increased REM's holdings of WMC. We will see if this was the case in REM's April-2014 semi-annual report (WMC holding should increase by 10.5%). If so, WMC paid $.916 Cash dividend in Dec-2013, and $0.67 in Mar-2014 - a drop, yes, but not as sharp as you present by comparing to $2.35.

    This may explain most of your projected REM's dividend of $0.30 - you don't provide anything else here that explains it. The rest can be summarized as "REM's price dropped in the summer of 2013, while dividends did not." That's why it has higher yield.

    Having said this, I do agree that REM's dividend is likely to drop somewhat, perhaps to 12-14% yield (at current price). At this yield, it's still tremendously attractive as income investment, as are diversified mREITs in general: http://bit.ly/SO41rx
    Jun 16 02:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Rally Is Just Getting Started [View article]
    @eagle1003, hosing construction and sales in 2005-07 was driven by speculative demand. Look at a longer history - long-term demand, driven by population growth, household formation, is about 1.5 mil. That excess buildup had to be absorbed, and it now has. You don't want housing to go back to the bubble levels - if it does, the same people will complain about low affordability.
    Jun 9 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Rally Is Just Getting Started [View article]
    I mention P/E very briefly in this article.. we found as part of our modeling based on long(er) history that P/E compared to its average over 5-10y years matters most as one of the factors that influence equity market returns. The reason may be that people give higher weight to recent history.
    Jun 8 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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