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  • How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
    I believe you have "thinking" confused with something else
    Feb 2, 2013. 04:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell: A Short Case For Going Long [View article]
    That will be great, more people to sell to when it gets hot.
    Apr 27, 2012. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell: Dirt Cheap Stock For Strong Long-Term Returns [View article]
    I was asking the same question. I think you should read that as "don't blame me if the stock doesn't go anywhere soon, but if you wait long enough..."

    I disagree with her on the "hold" recommendation. Dell has tremendous capability to repurchase shares, especially at the current stock level. From 2001-2007, Dell repurchased ~$32 billion worth of shares. Dell's current market value is ~$28 billion. Think about it.
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    OK, I see what you did, you used Dell's enterprise value (market value + LT debt + ST debt - cash... Dell has no preferred shares).

    They call it FY12 (just think whatever year it is +1).
    Apr 23, 2012. 03:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    I just submitted an article to Seeking Alpha answering your question at length (well, my main argument is that momentum will likely continue given the company's clear vision, pain it has already went through, track record, and cash position + generation, but momentum isn't necessary for price appreciation). You can follow me so you get an alert when it gets published. Thanks!
    Apr 23, 2012. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    Agreed. Dell's FY normally ends in Jan-Feb, so do you mean FY2012 FCF? Dell has $14.8 billion in cash and short-term investments and is generating $4.9 billion in free cash flow. The market value of the company's equity is $28.5 billion. Net of cash, we are talking about less than 3 years.
    Apr 23, 2012. 02:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    Hmm, that's actually a very interesting insight that you brought up. I just submitted an article on Dell (on why I'm long) so I will need to incorporate your insights (if I'm able to confirm them) in the next write up. You can follow me so you get an alert when it gets published. Thanks!
    Apr 23, 2012. 02:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    I think anecdotal perspectives are very valuable, just ask Peter Lynch.

    PlentyOStocks: Watson didn't beat Kasparov, it was Deep Blue
    Apr 20, 2012. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    Rick, I too believe IBM has great growth potential, but I want more of a discount than what we are currently seeing-- I want the discount we saw in 2010 of 10x ev/fcf or 11-12x p/e. By being picky, I risk missing this strong growth opportunity, but I will survive to invest another day.
    Apr 20, 2012. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Looks Cheap, But Others Look Cheaper [View article]
    Thanks for your insights on man vs computer and on HPQ. I should look further into HPQ. I was initally put off by HPQ's contracting margins and, like you said, problems in the executive suite.
    Apr 20, 2012. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Buyers Beware (Sellers Too) [View article]
    Yes, you raised some good points. I'm well aware of the wasteful acquisitions (I alluded to them a few times in the article), and HP's rash hiring decision when it came to Leo, but chose to leave them out to keep the article short.

    Glad you quit HPQ last year!
    Apr 5, 2012. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Buyers Beware (Sellers Too) [View article]
    Yes, there is always hope that any company will rebound, but investing on hope is not a winning strategy.
    Apr 4, 2012. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Buyers Beware (Sellers Too) [View article]
    Thanks, glad you found it useful. (Mojo... haha)
    Apr 3, 2012. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Buyers Beware (Sellers Too) [View article]
    Thanks! Yes, if you are holding HPQ, you might consider selling it in order to free up cash for better alternatives. However, short selling this stock is very dangerous since, imo, you stand to lose a lot more than you can gain. From that point of view, I went with "hold", which pretty much means it is a "meh" stock.

    Follow me if you found my article useful! I plan on putting up at least an article a week, sometimes on micro cap value stocks that won't get much attention (I'm looking into ATV right now).
    Apr 3, 2012. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Ready To Double [View article]
    Thanks for your effort. However, I think this is a very poor analysis of HPQ, and I don't see a single compelling reason to buy HPQ based on your article alone.

    1) Analyst ratings should all be discounted to 0
    2) How did HPQ "keep its revenue"? FY11 revenue was DOWN on a current currency, nominal basis, and DOWN on an inflation adjusted basis (regardless of currency influences).
    3) You did not address the downward trends this company has been experiencing, including deteriorating balance sheet, downward trending margins, loss of market share, etc.
    4) I'm not sure if going to Harvard or Princeton is relevant to here... but I doubt having Whitman as CEO is a sell point for HPQ (results remain to be seen).
    5) There are much better alternatives, such as DELL, valued just as cheaply but with better performance trends and balance sheet. See my article on DELL here: http://bit.ly/HuWnvo

    I will submit an article on HPQ soon (1-2 days). Follow me if you want a better laid out argument against your article.

    I'm not trying to be harsh, but your dramatic conclusion is not at all supported, and you did not address the obvious risks/challenges. Please feel free to agree or disagree. Thanks.
    Apr 1, 2012. 05:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
20 Comments
16 Likes