Annaly (NLY) CIO and Vice Chair of the Board Wellington Denahan exercises options to purchase 100K shares of company stock at $13.25 each (today's close $16.17). Her stake in the company is upped 12.3% to 913K shares. [View news story]
Not totally moronic. mREITs finance themselves through repo markets, which is a kind of asset/liability mismatch that burned the SIVs of 2008-09. In fact, mREITs had a scare before Thanksgiving 2011, when Euro credit markets started freezing. I'm a fan of the mREITs, having played NLY & CYS in the past, even having held HTS as a core position. you have to realize that there's no free lunch though: 10-15% dividend means some risk.
Annaly (NLY) CIO and Vice Chair of the Board Wellington Denahan exercises options to purchase 100K shares of company stock at $13.25 each (today's close $16.17). Her stake in the company is upped 12.3% to 913K shares. [View news story]
They're exercised stock options with a $13.25 strike. In other words, were NLY < 13.25, they'd be worthless to her. As this is an "exercise and hold" transaction she'll likely be long this stock for at least 366 days to benefit fm LT cap gains. An exec like her will only sell through scheduled 10b5-1 at that point, but she's long the stock up to her eyeballs.
See my reply to "dsorchestra90" above. Of course you're right: the LT success of the franchisee is critical. See the recent announcements about the National DCP & new franchisee incentives.
Yes, discounting all information, I do think it's fairly valued. The nice thing about their cash flows deriving from franchisees' revenues is that DNKN can easily grow by simply increasing their points-of-distribution (POD), of which there's ample opportunity in the US. That fact alone justifies an even higher valuation for DNKN--particularly since it's a low risk model. (Historically, Dunkin stores have takes 2 yrs to find their sweet spot & profitability. Yet, new franchisees will henceforth be aided by the new NDCP, not to mention that the parent DNKN doesn't care about their profitability, just revs.) You do have a few technical caveats that hold it back. One caveat is the lockup expiry 1/21/12. Another is future secondary offerings. DNKN offerings are not dilutive to shareholders, because they just sell the stock already held by Bain & Co to the public. The offerings are, however, an influx of supply that needs absorption from a buyer (look at the malaise since the last secondary 11/17/11). Like I said, discounting all info, it's fairly valued $26-27.50.
Not sure you understand the business model: It's a franchise, very unlike SBUX. They skim fees off franchisees' (stores') top line, more like a MA or V. Little to no commodity exposure, lest coffee prices magnanimously affect store revenues. the commodity exposure affects margins, which pertain only to store owners' bottom line.
The VIX stays calm, even with dramatic headlines coming in by the hour from Europe. The market's volatility index, +7% for the day, still stands at a mild-reading sub-20 level, well-off the higher spikes in fear recorded in March and June. [View news story]
"Volatility Index" is a misnomer. It's a terrible leading indicator too. All you need to know is that we're seeing triple-digit days in the Dow. 1%+ moves in broad indices spells volatility in my book. ...not to mention that the VIX is +16% today. What the he!! are you talking about?
The Fed's Fight With Inflation and Deflation [View article]
I'm not hoping that DC shut down later this year, but it would be funny to watch the outcome: as long as Social Security checks go out, who needs them politicians and their multiple interns?! :}
2011 Technical Outlook for a Range of Asset Classes [View article]
I'm actually working on a "Dissertation" about my trading strategy over at my blog, thebuttonwoodtree.word.... I should have it posted before month end. I'm not trying to plug my blog, because I write there more for my own benefit (tracking my ideas) than for my readers', so I'll cross post the Dissertation here at Seeking Alpha. I am quite familiar with the random walk studies to which you refer. I don't like sharing my trading strategy, because Market notions that go viral end up in ruins. I would say that any capital market prognosticator (trader, analyst, etc.) is engaging in a social science. Whenever you attempt to quantify qualitative data or extrapolate quantitative data, you're doing something more theoretical than scientific. So what I'm trying to say is that I make misakes... but I'm disciplined enough to stop the bleeding, and my system is strong enough to err in less than 10% of trades.
2011 Technical Outlook for a Range of Asset Classes [View article]
It's funny that you mention that. Using iShares DJ Sector ETFs, I'll do a post about that soon. To give you an answer right now, I don't see any undervalued sectors at first glance, but I do see sectors that will outperform on a relative strength basis. Thus, I'll probably pair the winners with a short position in the losers.
2011 Technical Outlook for a Range of Asset Classes [View article]
The titles are edited (and in this case liberally edited) by the editors of SA, who do their best given the volume they have to deal with. Further, I have a website where I update these views. I don't update them retroactively, I update them in real time. Further, there's a portfolio therein that tracks the performance of said views. Not much of a spin job here. Just fair disclosure. You can see where my money is, you can see when I change those views, so... where's the beef? I think that takes care of it, cuz I don't have much more time to respond to this... "Only the supremely arrogant or toweringly ignorant would make predictions of the movement of the value of various financial numbers for an entire year. The regularity of these truly silly prognostications is matched only with the regularity that these self-declared prophets vanish when the time comes to review the results."
I completely agree with your assessment of herd reduction in 08-09. "My guess is someone like Tepper may think he can force a sale of the company." ...however, do note that the regulatory filing by Tepper indicated a "Passive" stake in DF. While that may change, for now he has no intention to affect DF's managerial (or other active) course.
Annaly (NLY) CIO and Vice Chair of the Board Wellington Denahan exercises options to purchase 100K shares of company stock at $13.25 each (today's close $16.17). Her stake in the company is upped 12.3% to 913K shares. [View news story]
I'm a fan of the mREITs, having played NLY & CYS in the past, even having held HTS as a core position. you have to realize that there's no free lunch though: 10-15% dividend means some risk.
Annaly (NLY) CIO and Vice Chair of the Board Wellington Denahan exercises options to purchase 100K shares of company stock at $13.25 each (today's close $16.17). Her stake in the company is upped 12.3% to 913K shares. [View news story]
America Should Run From Dunkin' [View article]
Of course you're right: the LT success of the franchisee is critical. See the recent announcements about the National DCP & new franchisee incentives.
America Should Run From Dunkin' [View article]
You do have a few technical caveats that hold it back. One caveat is the lockup expiry 1/21/12. Another is future secondary offerings. DNKN offerings are not dilutive to shareholders, because they just sell the stock already held by Bain & Co to the public. The offerings are, however, an influx of supply that needs absorption from a buyer (look at the malaise since the last secondary 11/17/11).
Like I said, discounting all info, it's fairly valued $26-27.50.
America Should Run From Dunkin' [View article]
It's a franchise, very unlike SBUX. They skim fees off franchisees' (stores') top line, more like a MA or V. Little to no commodity exposure, lest coffee prices magnanimously affect store revenues. the commodity exposure affects margins, which pertain only to store owners' bottom line.
The VIX stays calm, even with dramatic headlines coming in by the hour from Europe. The market's volatility index, +7% for the day, still stands at a mild-reading sub-20 level, well-off the higher spikes in fear recorded in March and June. [View news story]
...not to mention that the VIX is +16% today. What the he!! are you talking about?
The Dollar's Relationship to Oil Is Loose [View article]
The Fed's Fight With Inflation and Deflation [View article]
The Fed's Fight With Inflation and Deflation [View article]
Baltic Dry Index: Indicator for Economy / S&P? [View article]
What's Up Next for the Euro/Dollar Tango? [View article]
2011 Technical Outlook for a Range of Asset Classes [View article]
I'm not trying to plug my blog, because I write there more for my own benefit (tracking my ideas) than for my readers', so I'll cross post the Dissertation here at Seeking Alpha.
I am quite familiar with the random walk studies to which you refer. I don't like sharing my trading strategy, because Market notions that go viral end up in ruins. I would say that any capital market prognosticator (trader, analyst, etc.) is engaging in a social science. Whenever you attempt to quantify qualitative data or extrapolate quantitative data, you're doing something more theoretical than scientific. So what I'm trying to say is that I make misakes... but I'm disciplined enough to stop the bleeding, and my system is strong enough to err in less than 10% of trades.
2011 Technical Outlook for a Range of Asset Classes [View article]
2011 Technical Outlook for a Range of Asset Classes [View article]
Further, I have a website where I update these views. I don't update them retroactively, I update them in real time. Further, there's a portfolio therein that tracks the performance of said views.
Not much of a spin job here. Just fair disclosure. You can see where my money is, you can see when I change those views, so... where's the beef? I think that takes care of it, cuz I don't have much more time to respond to this...
"Only the supremely arrogant or toweringly ignorant would make predictions of the movement of the value of various financial numbers for an entire year. The regularity of these truly silly prognostications is matched only with the regularity that these self-declared prophets vanish when the time comes to review the results."
Good Value Found in Dean Foods [View article]
"My guess is someone like Tepper may think he can force a sale of the company."
...however, do note that the regulatory filing by Tepper indicated a "Passive" stake in DF. While that may change, for now he has no intention to affect DF's managerial (or other active) course.