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Ron Finberg

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  • FXCM - How An Acquisition Of Gain Capital Will Create Tremendous Shareholder Value [View article]
    There are definite cost saving synergies here, specifically with regulation and marketing expenses. But much of the potential value of the deal depends on whether Gain clients migrate to FXCM, and what the strategy will be going forward to continue converting new clients.

    We've written about the deal, with http://bit.ly/14WiENj being are latest post. In the conference call, FXCM's Niv didn't put much concern on client migration. But from their language, it appears to show that they are looking to 'sunset' the Forex.com brand. Will it still be used for marketing? obviously, the domain is too powerful not to. But unlike some other deals in the FX world, where firms continue market the acquired brands, the emphasis here is on FXCM's name and appeal going forward. Therefore, it's hard to say that this is case of 1+1 =2. Gain does have affiliates and white labels that would be inherited by FXCM and are easy to convert, but there are so many other overlapping marketing channels that they may not provide the same results if Gain's brand is removed.
    Apr 10 02:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors are starting to come into equities, says Michael Price, as they realize valuations compared to bonds are so much better. Price's real talent lies not in macro calls, but in value stocks, and he's a big fan of McGraw-Hill (MHP), particularly the S&P side once it's split off from the education business. Another pick is FXCM, where trading activity is picking up and higher interest rates could really start to boost earnings. [View news story]
    don't know about the FXCM pick, Dec figures weren't too hot, and their new lower spreads offering doesn't seem to be taking off
    Jan 17 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Knight Capital Be Forced To Sell Hotspot FX? [View article]
    Looks like they were squeezed by their partners. The stock is down 20% today on the new financing. Seems a little bit like JP Morgan telling Bear Stearns, this is what we are offering and their is no other option. Will be very surprised if the private equity guys involved don't strip KCG about within a year.
    Aug 6 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Elections: A Lower Euro On Any Result? [View article]
    " If you want to borrow money in the future I saw, you had to have an income greater than your payment,"

    Whoaaa, they got rid of all the banks in the future too? I thought they only can make money by knowing that you can't pay back you loans so they can keep offering new ones. How do they make money in the future?
    Jun 17 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Elections: A Lower Euro On Any Result? [View article]
    There is the obvious short term hurt for Greece getting booted by the EMU. But it seems like there best case scenario over the long term is being in the EU and not the EMU. They would have adevalued drachma to boost tourism + exports, along with the passport benefits of staying in the EU.
    Jun 17 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone's Woes Are Not Ending Until The Fat Franc Flies? [View article]
    "I am expecting the franc to weaken against the euro the moment the market is convinced the eurozone crisis is on its way to resolution. "

    Why? We just had a pro Euro weekend move and the Franc barely weakened at all. If anything, a pro-EU event could lead the SNB to lower its floor if it believed that the EU economy was strong enough again to handle Swiss exports.

    I happen to be long the EURCHF as well (well, at least until Thursday's SNB Meeting), but the fact that any positive news has failed to generate gains for the EURCHF shows that the ultimate direction is lower for the EURCHF. Any buying now is simply on the hope that the SNB will raise its floor, because without the floor, there just aren't any buyers out there for the EURCHF
    Jun 11 05:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Love Affair With The Australian Dollar Has Officially Ended [View article]
    Personally, I think the big question is how affected is the overall Australian economy to a strengthening Aussie. They don' t really export finished goods, but lots of unfinished metals, minerals etc. Therefore, other than finding a way to weaken commodity prices, what will intervention really do.
    Mar 5 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Facebook's Risk Factors [View article]
    Hey JAC, thanks for the Link.
    I'm no peeping Tom. So don't take much of a look at the specifics. Just pointing out that Facebook has been probably the biggest driver of smartphone sales, but unless they can figure out how to get their piece of the pie from mobile, they will get grilled about it on every conference call.
    Feb 2 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Facebook's Risk Factors [View article]
    My favorite FB indicator is on the elevator. In my rough, obvious non-scientific survey on elevator riders with smartphones, abot 80% of them will be checking Facebook (the other 20% are still stuck on blackberries and are checking emails - or at least rereading the same ones for the 9th time).

    In any event, that lack of meaningful mobile revenue seems to be a huge question mark.Although the actual numbers would be expected to remain modest for the next few years, they could be that one issue that analysts keep focusing on; for better or worse.
    Feb 2 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Competitive Strategy That Will Cripple Salesforce.com [View article]
    Bruce, thanks for the article,
    One important point to remember about Salesforce is the sheer amount of third party applications that work with their products. This allows companies to get up and running quickly in virtually any industry without the need of IT staff to sync API's between various data collection points and the CRM.
    Like any good app, over time, these third party companies will create versions of their software/plugins to work with other vendors. However, until than, Salesforce has, and uses this advantage effectively, versus its smaller and cheaper competitors.
    Dec 19 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To restore market confidence, eurozone nations are exploring a plan to speed up fiscal integration whereby they would seal bilateral deals with each other and so negate the need for cumbersome treaty changes, the WSJ reports. The hope is that the ECB would boost its bond intervention, although it's not clear whether the bank would acquiesce.  [View news story]
    As usual, Germany is holding the dice with initiating these policies.

    But, unlike earlier this month when their was unanimous oppositions from Germany to the multi backed Euro bonds, they seem to be warming up. I guess last week's lack of demand for their debt has gotten them more proactive to create a solution.
    Nov 27 06:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +2K to 393K in-line with consensus. Continuing claims +68K to 3.69M.  [View news story]
    Looks good to me, 4 weeks in row of sub 400,000 numbers. Sets up nicely for a stronger NFP figure next Friday.
    Nov 23 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Is the Dollar Done? [View article]
    Not much a move higher in commodities after China's GDP release. It appears that euphoria in stocks is all that is keeping higher prices afloat.
    Apr 15 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Largest Forex Hedge Fund Predicts $1.20 Euro [View article]
    UK downgrades are most likely coming, but I would imagine the credit firms will be waiting to see how the election plays out before they take a stance.
    Mar 24 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Largest Forex Hedge Fund Predicts $1.20 Euro [View article]
    Of all John Taylor had to say, I think that last point that he threw in there about Australia, and its potential Housing Bubble was the most interesting. Its a nice idea to keep in mind and watch how it plays out.
    Mar 24 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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