Ron Jaenisch

Special situations, momentum
Ron Jaenisch
Special situations, momentum
Contributor since: 2013
Company: RCS
Over at the top was also forecast. Leaps seem too much of a risk here. How about some tvix?...........I own it. Seems like an option to me with no premium time risk.
It has been tested and proven but the pattern of management leads me to believe that they have an agenda that is not one that benefits stock holders.
Bought some today..........near $4. Ron @
Hi John, Your article seems to be missing a little something. When RR came to power he put in 401K's as a result the stock market got new automatic customers. These folks are retiring and for the next few years will take money out of their 401k's. Demographics are important because economies are driven by those that have kids. They are the gotta have its who will work like crazy to have "it". Numerically this group is in decline nearly all over the world.
As you have stated.....demographics are not useful for exact market timing. I will post a chart on the front page of my personal website....using my name in the URL showing you the forecasts for the TOP in the markets using techniques from Roger Ward Babson......come and visit.
Thank you for your market positive comments. This way it goes down in an orderly manner. Oh yes and by the way there is a report on CNN about this down move being part of a stock market crash. Well done and balanced.Tells what is likely to come next.
You guys are funny. Are any of you related to the 200 day moving average.........a member of the lagging clan? Read my article that I wrote back in Dec predicting this stuff. And my trading activity this morning.
Looks like she is going down the Babson trading profit ladder to me. You can see my comments on my blog as prices made the highs today.
Andrews Ore signal rules !
Precisiontrader analysis suggests that 1520 spx is a number to watch for a temporary high. It would need to be followed by a drop past 1500 to give us a multi day drop of a few percent.
Looking at the bigger picture ........the banks of India....(HDB) are slowing.
Yes it matters and it can be done. Take a look at my Bond timing and most recent call. at......
Right you are and the trick is in the selection of the basket which needs to be updated regularly.
Our research has found that what is the best market indicator is a system basket of long and/or short stocks. The basket in very bullish patterns consists nearly only long positions and as the market turns to bearish, the stocks in the basket start including shorts. We simply look at the ratio of longs to shorts to get the trend. The benefit is that when the market goes below the 200 day moving average or your MA has turned negative our basket might be filling up with long positions.
Real time parallel simulated trading to date has resulted in a 9% avg monthly gain for the portfolio while the S&P was up an average of 2.2%. If this can keep up it will be a nice portfolio that has no head line risk, by having an equal position in the SPY, that is opposite in direction to the positions in the portfolio.
While looking for problems with this it was noted that about 1/3 of the stocks in the basket had a market cap of 1B+. As a result we are now performing another parallel market test that includes only 1B+ market cap and uses power move probable indicators to increase the size of the position.
In this portfolio it is not unusual to have a position in a stock for months. With a system that predicts trends accurately, this creates opportunities for development of other systems that utilize a shorter time frame and only look for moves that are less than 10%.
Market timing is possible with the right tools and training. Take last Friday around this time on this forum I said the market would make new highs and then drop 1-2% in the SPY.
That's what happened. Yesterday shortly after the close we had a textbook temporary top signal. What is the forecast now? If the market breaks the lows of this morning then down she goes for about 1%.
But remember this is an overall up trend and she goes down all the way up.
The pattern that i am referring to has occurred in the last year ......but on a daily chart and you can see when it occurred and your charts can tell you what occurred there after.
Its Friday and about 1 hour before the close. If the spx can go a tad higher we might see a down slide surprise next week of a few percent.
Rocket trader how about a market neutral approach? A few of the right spreads?
Rocket trader how about a market neutral approach? A few of the right spreads?
Why are you going against the noise from the short sellers that are telling everyone the market is going up?
Nice Article. By the way if you like market neutral spreads you may want to look at an interesting way to deal with this an article I wrote for CNN
As a result of all the F.E.A.R. (false evidence appearing real) in the press and in your article.........US companies are giving away money they might otherwise use for investments. This is being done in the form of special dividends. They are a boom to investors and the tax collector.
Even though investors will only pay 15% tax the corp has already paid over 35%.
The notion that the tax return will not commeth is one i wrestled with and filed my CA return early......but even crazy CA found the money to pay everyone in 2012.
Could there be another reason that they are MAKING the cliff? Gee what very very profitable investment decisions can ya make if you know when announcements are a commin. Heck you can do futures, options or etf's. EZ investing if you know when they are a commin. Ask the guys over in Greece, they made a bundle by yanking our chain.
Ya gotta luv the speakers charts. He is trying to make the challenge obvious. But where do bonds go between now and mid January?
Does Elliott wave tell the story?
I put up some charts on CNN

Bonds look like they just made a turn at the end of a fourth wave and are headed for a fifth wave.
If a reversal occurs prior to the inauguration all is well and bonds may go up to an important high.
I love this head line. My S&P charts say yesterday was an important top. Even had it on CNN. Today a Dow pattern confirms it. People need to listen to Harry Reid.......why does he like the idea of going over the cliff?......Disclosure... am soooo not long.
Prechter wrote in his first book at the pivot #2 it feels like new highs and fails. Is this a pivot #2 in ewave terms?
Even Cnn has it as a possible top.
What you see on the chart can also be seen in the Dow and IWM
The charts were real pretty, but the fact is that by cutting funding in the billions .....people will be laid off. When lots of people are laid off unemployment costs go up and tax revenue goes down.
Then there is the bonus of nearly EVERYONE.......getting a 2% pay cut, due to FICA going up.
While the 2% appears a lot fairer than the $300 tax credit that GwB had stopping the 2%... it the impact is a cut of over 1% of GDP.
Then in addition to the GWB tax cuts that are about to go away......the big AMT tax bomb will explode unless congress acts prior to Dec 31.
Let the good times roll.
To get the fed to act they need to get nervous. There are many factors that are making them comfortable. Retail sales are going up as well as consumer prices. Unemployment is not rising.
All this can change big time in the months to come if defense contractors get nervous and think their $$ runs out Jan1.
This would mean that under the law they MUST give notice before the election for groups that will be laid off Jan 1.
My forecasts for oil, indices the euro and various stocks are on Cnn......
The catalyst........ disappointment in Ben.
Technical...Hit the Babson Reaction Line.
Typically prices stall or reverse there....according to my article in April futures magazine.
S&P has been moving in a very small range for the last few weeks.
It has been very predictable. Today prices closed near another reversal point similar to the prior ones predicted in the past few months......within an hour or so of each reversal occurring.
The market has been very co operative with the Andrews ORE indicator in the past few months. It has been very helpful at finding highs and lows, posted in real time on CNN.
Sooo where is the next area which is likely to have a reversal?
Our tech suggests that the market could go up almost 1% more basis S&P.
Take a look at Born. A while back they bought all the corn they would need for their Booz and Oil Biz. As the value of what they sell and their corn inventory go will their profits be impacted?
Note that the book value is a bit low. Is this due to Chinese accounting or were they an innocent victim of the wave?
Is this an advertisement to buy at the top?
Take a look at the primary service company for commercial real estate. CBG. For those that like WD Gann theory .....a head and shoulders is possible. For those that like Elliott wave how about a third wave of a third wave of a third wave.
Best regards
Ron Jaenisch dot com