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Ron Jaenisch  

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  • Sell Into The Christmas Rally And Sell On The Fiscal Cliff Deal News [View article]
    Why are you going against the noise from the short sellers that are telling everyone the market is going up?
    Dec 14, 2012. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beauty Of Credit Spreads [View article]
    Nice Article. By the way if you like market neutral spreads you may want to look at an interesting way to deal with this an article I wrote for CNN
    Dec 14, 2012. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increase Debt Limit Or Tax Refunds Will Not Go Out [View article]
    As a result of all the F.E.A.R. (false evidence appearing real) in the press and in your article.........US companies are giving away money they might otherwise use for investments. This is being done in the form of special dividends. They are a boom to investors and the tax collector.
    Even though investors will only pay 15% tax the corp has already paid over 35%.

    The notion that the tax return will not commeth is one i wrestled with and filed my CA return early......but even crazy CA found the money to pay everyone in 2012.

    Could there be another reason that they are MAKING the cliff? Gee what very very profitable investment decisions can ya make if you know when announcements are a commin. Heck you can do futures, options or etf's. EZ investing if you know when they are a commin. Ask the guys over in Greece, they made a bundle by yanking our chain.
    Dec 14, 2012. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increase Debt Limit Or Tax Refunds Will Not Go Out [View article]
    Ya gotta luv the speakers charts. He is trying to make the challenge obvious. But where do bonds go between now and mid January?

    Does Elliott wave tell the story?
    I put up some charts on CNN

    Bonds look like they just made a turn at the end of a fourth wave and are headed for a fifth wave.

    If a reversal occurs prior to the inauguration all is well and bonds may go up to an important high.
    Dec 14, 2012. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Soars As U.S. Borrowed 51.6¢ Of Every Dollar Spent In November 2012 [View article]
    I love this head line. My S&P charts say yesterday was an important top. Even had it on CNN. Today a Dow pattern confirms it. People need to listen to Harry Reid.......why does he like the idea of going over the cliff?......Disclosure... am soooo not long.
    Dec 13, 2012. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pronouncing itself "unapologetically bullish," Merrill Lynch has a 1600 target on the S&P 500 next year. The key will be a strengthening economy once the U.S. gets past the cliff worries. Combine better growth with a still-easy Fed, and you'll also get $2k gold, says Merrill's commodity team. [View news story]
    Prechter wrote in his first book at the pivot #2 it feels like new highs and fails. Is this a pivot #2 in ewave terms?

    Even Cnn has it as a possible top.

    What you see on the chart can also be seen in the Dow and IWM
    Dec 12, 2012. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fear Sequestration [View article]
    The charts were real pretty, but the fact is that by cutting funding in the billions .....people will be laid off. When lots of people are laid off unemployment costs go up and tax revenue goes down.

    Then there is the bonus of nearly EVERYONE.......getting a 2% pay cut, due to FICA going up.

    While the 2% appears a lot fairer than the $300 tax credit that GwB had stopping the 2%... it the impact is a cut of over 1% of GDP.

    Then in addition to the GWB tax cuts that are about to go away......the big AMT tax bomb will explode unless congress acts prior to Dec 31.

    Let the good times roll.
    Nov 29, 2012. 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In case anyone forgot, the Russell 3000 closed 2010 and 2011 in the green after being solidly lower YTD pre-Jackson Hole. Don't expect much tomorrow - contrary to popular belief, nothing was announced in 2010 other than the Fed's readiness to act, i.e. nothing different than what Bernanke has said for months. [View news story]
    To get the fed to act they need to get nervous. There are many factors that are making them comfortable. Retail sales are going up as well as consumer prices. Unemployment is not rising.

    All this can change big time in the months to come if defense contractors get nervous and think their $$ runs out Jan1.

    This would mean that under the law they MUST give notice before the election for groups that will be laid off Jan 1.

    My forecasts for oil, indices the euro and various stocks are on Cnn......
    Aug 30, 2012. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The put/call ratio on the S&P 500 moves to the danger zone - low enough to signal few enough are hedging against stocks falling as to almost assure that outcome. However, cautions Tommy Thornton, wait for indicator to turn higher before beginning to sell. [View news story]
    The catalyst........ disappointment in Ben.
    Technical...Hit the Babson Reaction Line.
    Typically prices stall or reverse there....according to my article in April futures magazine.
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A divergence opens between the S&P and 10-year inflation expectations (10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year TIPS yield), notes Eddy Elfenbein. The two have moved closely in concert for the past 2 years, but the S&P has risen the last few weeks while inflation expectations have held steady.  [View news story]
    S&P has been moving in a very small range for the last few weeks.
    It has been very predictable. Today prices closed near another reversal point similar to the prior ones predicted in the past few months......within an hour or so of each reversal occurring.
    Jul 19, 2012. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why The Market Will Likely Sell Off This Week [View article]
    The market has been very co operative with the Andrews ORE indicator in the past few months. It has been very helpful at finding highs and lows, posted in real time on CNN.

    Sooo where is the next area which is likely to have a reversal?
    Our tech suggests that the market could go up almost 1% more basis S&P.
    Jul 18, 2012. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 Stocks To Examine A Bit Closer As We Kick-Off Earnings Season [View article]
    Take a look at Born. A while back they bought all the corn they would need for their Booz and Oil Biz. As the value of what they sell and their corn inventory go will their profits be impacted?

    Note that the book value is a bit low. Is this due to Chinese accounting or were they an innocent victim of the wave?
    Jul 9, 2012. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A Commercial Real Estate ETF? [View article]
    Is this an advertisement to buy at the top?
    Take a look at the primary service company for commercial real estate. CBG. For those that like WD Gann theory .....a head and shoulders is possible. For those that like Elliott wave how about a third wave of a third wave of a third wave.

    Best regards
    Ron Jaenisch dot com
    May 3, 2012. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment