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Ron Jaenisch

 
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  • Riding S&P 500 Up: Testing A Parachute [View article]
    Its Friday and about 1 hour before the close. If the spx can go a tad higher we might see a down slide surprise next week of a few percent.
    Jan 4 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fear Sequestration [View article]
    The charts were real pretty, but the fact is that by cutting funding in the billions .....people will be laid off. When lots of people are laid off unemployment costs go up and tax revenue goes down.

    Then there is the bonus of nearly EVERYONE.......getting a 2% pay cut, due to FICA going up.

    While the 2% appears a lot fairer than the $300 tax credit that GwB had .......by stopping the 2%... it the impact is a cut of over 1% of GDP.

    Then in addition to the GWB tax cuts that are about to go away......the big AMT tax bomb will explode unless congress acts prior to Dec 31.

    Let the good times roll.
    Nov 29 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The put/call ratio on the S&P 500 moves to the danger zone - low enough to signal few enough are hedging against stocks falling as to almost assure that outcome. However, cautions Tommy Thornton, wait for indicator to turn higher before beginning to sell. [View news story]
    The catalyst........ disappointment in Ben.
    Technical...Hit the Babson Reaction Line.
    Typically prices stall or reverse there....according to my article in April futures magazine.
    Aug 29 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Demographic Influences To Crash Stocks In 2014 [View article]
    Hi John, Your article seems to be missing a little something. When RR came to power he put in 401K's as a result the stock market got new automatic customers. These folks are retiring and for the next few years will take money out of their 401k's. Demographics are important because economies are driven by those that have kids. They are the gotta have its who will work like crazy to have "it". Numerically this group is in decline nearly all over the world.

    As you have stated.....demographics are not useful for exact market timing. I will post a chart on the front page of my personal website....using my name in the URL showing you the forecasts for the TOP in the markets using techniques from Roger Ward Babson......come and visit.
    Dec 13 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Into The Christmas Rally And Sell On The Fiscal Cliff Deal News [View article]
    Stephen,
    Why are you going against the noise from the short sellers that are telling everyone the market is going up?
    Dec 14 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calling recent stock market action a "buying stampede" unlike anything he's seen in more than 50 years of watching markets, Jeff Saut says the investors he talks to believe the rally is "artificially induced" and is set up for a crash. The big picture: QE remains, profits have risen along with stocks, the Advance/decline line has broken out to new highs - "there is nothing in the 'tea leaves' suggesting a repeat of double-digit declines" seen in the past 3 springs. [View news story]
    Thank you for your market positive comments. This way it goes down in an orderly manner. Oh yes and by the way there is a report on CNN about this down move being part of a stock market crash. Well done and balanced.Tells what is likely to come next.

    http://bit.ly/12gmWwo
    Apr 15 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Is Approaching A Sell Signal [View article]
    You guys are funny. Are any of you related to the 200 day moving average.........a member of the lagging clan? Read my article that I wrote back in Dec predicting this stuff. And my trading activity this morning.
    Feb 25 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 (SPY) has gone 505 days without a 10% correction, writes Steven Russolollo. It's just the 6th time this has happened since 1962, according to Birinyi Associates, and in each of the other 5 instances, the S&P averaged a 9.2% gain over the next 6 months, and 13% over the ensuing year. [View news story]
    Looks like she is going down the Babson trading profit ladder to me. You can see my comments on my blog as prices made the highs today.
    Feb 25 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Akorn Diving Again? [View instapost]
    Andrews Ore signal rules !
    Feb 17 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Deja Vu All Over Again (Or Not)? [View article]
    Precisiontrader analysis suggests that 1520 spx is a number to watch for a temporary high. It would need to be followed by a drop past 1500 to give us a multi day drop of a few percent.

    Looking at the bigger picture ........the banks of India....(HDB) are slowing.
    Feb 6 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    Yes it matters and it can be done. Take a look at my Bond timing and most recent call. at...... http://bit.ly/VGkoAE
    Jan 31 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    Right you are and the trick is in the selection of the basket which needs to be updated regularly.

    Our research has found that what is the best market indicator is a system basket of long and/or short stocks. The basket in very bullish patterns consists nearly only long positions and as the market turns to bearish, the stocks in the basket start including shorts. We simply look at the ratio of longs to shorts to get the trend. The benefit is that when the market goes below the 200 day moving average or your MA has turned negative our basket might be filling up with long positions.

    Real time parallel simulated trading to date has resulted in a 9% avg monthly gain for the portfolio while the S&P was up an average of 2.2%. If this can keep up it will be a nice portfolio that has no head line risk, by having an equal position in the SPY, that is opposite in direction to the positions in the portfolio.

    While looking for problems with this it was noted that about 1/3 of the stocks in the basket had a market cap of 1B+. As a result we are now performing another parallel market test that includes only 1B+ market cap and uses power move probable indicators to increase the size of the position.

    In this portfolio it is not unusual to have a position in a stock for months. With a system that predicts trends accurately, this creates opportunities for development of other systems that utilize a shorter time frame and only look for moves that are less than 10%.
    Jan 11 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    Market timing is possible with the right tools and training. Take last Friday around this time on this forum I said the market would make new highs and then drop 1-2% in the SPY.

    That's what happened. Yesterday shortly after the close we had a textbook temporary top signal. What is the forecast now? If the market breaks the lows of this morning then down she goes for about 1%.

    But remember this is an overall up trend and she goes down all the way up.
    Jan 11 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Next Wall Of Worry A Global Event? [View article]
    The pattern that i am referring to has occurred in the last year ......but on a daily chart and you can see when it occurred and your charts can tell you what occurred there after.

    http://bit.ly/1391Cce
    Jan 6 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Position In SPY For The Year End And Beyond [View article]
    Rocket trader how about a market neutral approach? A few of the right spreads? http://bit.ly/Z5QwFF
    Dec 14 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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