Seeking Alpha

Ron Jaenisch

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  • 4 Demographic Influences To Crash Stocks In 2014 [View article]
    Hi John, Your article seems to be missing a little something. When RR came to power he put in 401K's as a result the stock market got new automatic customers. These folks are retiring and for the next few years will take money out of their 401k's. Demographics are important because economies are driven by those that have kids. They are the gotta have its who will work like crazy to have "it". Numerically this group is in decline nearly all over the world.

    As you have stated.....demographics are not useful for exact market timing. I will post a chart on the front page of my personal website....using my name in the URL showing you the forecasts for the TOP in the markets using techniques from Roger Ward Babson......come and visit.
    Dec 13 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Is Approaching A Sell Signal [View article]
    You guys are funny. Are any of you related to the 200 day moving average.........a member of the lagging clan? Read my article that I wrote back in Dec predicting this stuff. And my trading activity this morning.
    Feb 25 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    Yes it matters and it can be done. Take a look at my Bond timing and most recent call. at...... http://bit.ly/VGkoAE
    Jan 31 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    Right you are and the trick is in the selection of the basket which needs to be updated regularly.

    Our research has found that what is the best market indicator is a system basket of long and/or short stocks. The basket in very bullish patterns consists nearly only long positions and as the market turns to bearish, the stocks in the basket start including shorts. We simply look at the ratio of longs to shorts to get the trend. The benefit is that when the market goes below the 200 day moving average or your MA has turned negative our basket might be filling up with long positions.

    Real time parallel simulated trading to date has resulted in a 9% avg monthly gain for the portfolio while the S&P was up an average of 2.2%. If this can keep up it will be a nice portfolio that has no head line risk, by having an equal position in the SPY, that is opposite in direction to the positions in the portfolio.

    While looking for problems with this it was noted that about 1/3 of the stocks in the basket had a market cap of 1B+. As a result we are now performing another parallel market test that includes only 1B+ market cap and uses power move probable indicators to increase the size of the position.

    In this portfolio it is not unusual to have a position in a stock for months. With a system that predicts trends accurately, this creates opportunities for development of other systems that utilize a shorter time frame and only look for moves that are less than 10%.
    Jan 11 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    Market timing is possible with the right tools and training. Take last Friday around this time on this forum I said the market would make new highs and then drop 1-2% in the SPY.

    That's what happened. Yesterday shortly after the close we had a textbook temporary top signal. What is the forecast now? If the market breaks the lows of this morning then down she goes for about 1%.

    But remember this is an overall up trend and she goes down all the way up.
    Jan 11 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding S&P 500 Up: Testing A Parachute [View article]
    Its Friday and about 1 hour before the close. If the spx can go a tad higher we might see a down slide surprise next week of a few percent.
    Jan 4 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Position In SPY For The Year End And Beyond [View article]
    Rocket trader how about a market neutral approach? A few of the right spreads? http://bit.ly/Z5QwFF
    Dec 14 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Position In SPY For The Year End And Beyond [View article]
    Rocket trader how about a market neutral approach? A few of the right spreads? http://bit.ly/Z5QwFF
    Dec 14 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Into The Christmas Rally And Sell On The Fiscal Cliff Deal News [View article]
    Stephen,
    Why are you going against the noise from the short sellers that are telling everyone the market is going up?
    Dec 14 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Soars As U.S. Borrowed 51.6ยข Of Every Dollar Spent In November 2012 [View article]
    I love this head line. My S&P charts say yesterday was an important top. Even had it on CNN. Today a Dow pattern confirms it. People need to listen to Harry Reid.......why does he like the idea of going over the cliff?......Disclosure... am soooo not long.
    Dec 13 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fear Sequestration [View article]
    The charts were real pretty, but the fact is that by cutting funding in the billions .....people will be laid off. When lots of people are laid off unemployment costs go up and tax revenue goes down.

    Then there is the bonus of nearly EVERYONE.......getting a 2% pay cut, due to FICA going up.

    While the 2% appears a lot fairer than the $300 tax credit that GwB had .......by stopping the 2%... it the impact is a cut of over 1% of GDP.

    Then in addition to the GWB tax cuts that are about to go away......the big AMT tax bomb will explode unless congress acts prior to Dec 31.

    Let the good times roll.
    Nov 29 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why The Market Will Likely Sell Off This Week [View article]
    The market has been very co operative with the Andrews ORE indicator in the past few months. It has been very helpful at finding highs and lows, posted in real time on CNN.
    http://bit.ly/NOGOvJ

    Sooo where is the next area which is likely to have a reversal?
    Our tech suggests that the market could go up almost 1% more basis S&P.
    Jul 18 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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