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Ron Myers

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  • J.C. Penney (JCP) confirms Ron Johnson is "stepping down and leaving the company." Mike Ullman, who was J.C. Penney's CEO until Nov. 2011, is replacing Johnson as CEO, and has also been elected to the company's board. Investors don't seem crazy about the choice, JCP now just +0.5% AH. (previous) Update (5:33): Shares are now down 4.4% AH. [View news story]
    Can't believe the haters. Johnson never had a chance. Their business was a cornerstone of the middle class which is shrinking at around 10% a year in this country. Everything has moved downmarket, upmarket, or online and their best comps are all doing absolutely terribly as well if not bankrupt already.

    Ron Johnson's strategy was a failure but it at least could have worked whereas the status quo is completely doomed. No positions and no interest either way.
    Apr 8 07:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unlocking The 'Value' Of LifeLock [View article]
    My pair trade would be short LOCK and short INTX but I enjoyed the article, great stuff.
    Apr 4 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Has Entered My $3.50 - $6.10/Share Range, Now What? [View article]
    Honestly not an expert on MCP at all and no positions but this seems like the type of stock that could be a multi-bagger with any kind of turnaround in either execution or rare earth prices whereas the maximum loss is 100%.

    If I had to guess the stock is going down further, maybe it's even a favorite to go to 0. But when I consider the likely distribution of returns as well as the heavy short interest and insider buying it's either a speculative long or a "stay away" to me.
    Apr 2 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jana Partners accuses Agrium (AGU -1.1%) of making inappropriate payments to win shareholder support, in an increasingly bitter proxy battle that comes to a head next week. "Not only does this strategy belie Agrium's claims of broad shareholder support... [it is] an affront to basic notions of good governance," the hedge fund says. AGU says the payments are appropriate and common in Canada. [View news story]
    Standard or not this is absurd theft of shareholder money and is making me reconsider my position in AGU.
    Apr 1 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toys "R" Us, which is partly owned by KKR (KKR) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), has finally ended its plans to go public, due to "unfavorable market conditions" and a change in CEO. The move comes a month after boss Gerald Storch said he was stepping down, and as Q4 revenue dropped 2.6% to $5.77B and profit slumped 30% to $239M. [View news story]
    By unfavorable market conditions they weren't lying and meant "American consumer retail", not the actual stock market.
    Mar 31 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once again in 2012 equity investors failed to keep up with their benchmark; the S&P rose 8.21%, while equity-fund investors made just 4.25%. According to Barron's, learning to sell puts when financial news turns dour is the antidote to underperformance[View news story]
    Absolutely terrible advice from Barron's as always. They wouldn't even consider something reasonable like "buy and hold an index fund with no trading". Instead they point people towards a complex high commission high fee strategy that 99.9% of retail investors should never touch.
    Mar 31 09:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deposits over €100K at the Bank of Cyprus will be taxed at 62.5%, sources tell Reuters. The figure is far greater than officials originally indicated. Customers will get 37.5% of their deposits over the €100K threshold in bank shares while the remainder of their cash "may never be paid back."  [View news story]
    The Russian "whales" who were well connected all went to London and took their deposits out - there were no restrictions on overseas branches of these banks as they were getting liquidity from the banks in their own countries. The reason the haircut is so high now is because the whale depositors took billions out of the bank in the week and a half negotiation period while those left took out nothing. From looking at the events at least some the players involved - probably on the Cypriot parliament side at the very least - knew this and the delay tactics were in place to give these depositors a chance to take their money out.

    The people losing here are primarily Cypriot retirees and small business owners as well as wealthy but less well off Russian depositors. Contrary to what people believe not all Russians depositing in Cyprus were criminals. Many were legitimate business owners who were not even that wealthy and deposited in Cyprus because of the stable Euro currency and perceived safety of the European banking system (LOL in hindsight but this type of bank run was common in Russia) and historic relationship between the two countries.

    In short this is a criminal outrage. Lessons learned:

    - Europe is a complete failure and everyone in charge is either incompetent, corrupt, unwilling to do the right thing for Europe while looking to extract maximum benefit for themselves, and most likely all three

    - Core eurozone countries will never commit to anything that could cause their taxpayers to lose money ever even in real and not nominal terms and in most cases will only agree to programs that will almost certainly make money for their country

    - The bottom may not even have set in yet in the periphery as shocking as that may be; certainly economic data have shown no signs of turning around
    Mar 30 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 10%, Are Stocks Now Too Dangerous To Hold? [View article]
    The size of the addressable market for S&P500 products is larger than it was in 2007 and most every other condition is highly favorable as well. 0 interest rates, extreme outsourcing and favorable tax treatment for those few jobs remaining in the US, terrible labor market = far better talent at lower wages for the top companies, commodity prices high but lower than 2007, the list goes on. The only industry materially worse is the banking sector due to new regulation.
    Mar 30 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooper's Warrants: Free Play On Leveraged Upside [View article]
    The delta on these is pretty low so there is not huge time value but 30 IV seems reasonable in which case they're still trading at a 10-15% discount. Black-Scholes probably undervalues long time scale warrants but that is just my opinion; using your own model or scenario analysis is better. In addition the anti-dilution protections in the warrants should have some value as well.

    Basically a super strong buy if you like the stock and probably a buy if you are neutral on the stock and have high risk tolerance.
    Mar 28 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooper's Warrants: Free Play On Leveraged Upside [View article]
    My one question is, why don't they just list on a public exchange if they are that concerned about the discount? Is it just really low free float? If so not sure the buyback is going to solve this problem.

    Frankly I never buy based on SA articles so this would be a first for me but it is looking like a clear buy. I'm planning to dig into the filing on the warrants as one would think there would be a catch as usually things don't trade this cheap even in illiquid markets. At that price I don't even need to look at the valuation on the stock and I know nothing about the sector anyway.
    Mar 28 02:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agrium (AGU) wins a key endorsement ahead of a crucial April 9 shareholder vote, as advisory firm Glass Lewis backs all 12 of AGU's board nominees over a slate nominated by dissident investor Jana Partners. The firm believes AGU has presented a more compelling case in favor of maintaining its strategy than the counter arguments put forward by Jana. [View news story]
    The link you posted from ISS says they endorse two of the JANA nominees and the blue proxy. Glass Lewis does support management and the white proxy.
    Mar 27 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CalPERS has a near negative 10% return on its $900M in clean technology investments, according to CIO Joseph Dear. "This has been a noble way to lose money," he says. The state's public employee retirees (and those expecting someday to retire) must be thrilled. [View news story]
    This is California - the fact that 90% is still left is bullish!
    Mar 21 01:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon (LULU) -5.6% AH after announcing a shortage in its supply of luon pants after large shipments were deemed too see-through for its standards. LULU cuts its outlook, expecting Q1 comp-store sales to increase 5%-8%, resulting in Q1 revenues of $333M-$343M vs. prior guidance of $350M-$355M and analyst consensus of $354M. [View news story]
    Here we have a 3420398230 PE stock that sells what are basically slightly better sweat pants, for $100 a pair. And they still f*** them up. What a buster.
    Mar 18 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon (RBCN +4.9%) closes with a decent gain on a day when it released its 2012 10-K. The hard-luck LED sapphire wafer maker, which has hammered last month after providing light guidance to go with a small Q4 miss, had 26.2% of its float shorted as of Feb. 15. [View news story]
    "light guidance"

    I see what you did there.
    Mar 14 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate's Fair Value Is Probably Over $15 Per Share [View article]
    Got my first dividend check limiting my max loss to only 98.5% or thereabouts. So at worst I'm already outperforming many of the worst chinese RTOs!

    Anyway this is one of those stocks where any day now I feel like I could check my portfolio and it's down 80% or something and I wouldn't be surprised. But other than Gurnee everything checks out for me. Unlike a lot of similar companies you can see the complexes they have built on known Chinese RE sites, the prices charged are completely reasonable when compared to revenues, there is the US property...of course there are many ways to skin a cat when it comes to fraud but there is at least some kind of real business here.
    Mar 12 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment