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Ron Reed

 
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  • 5 Simple Reasons I'm Still Short Pandora [View article]
    What would tell me I (and the author) was wrong; is a solid proof of positive earnings and ways going forward to increase earnings and actually value the stock. Having a continual loss of capital and and increasing stock price is rather irrational in a market with competitors that do have positive earnings. The current price is based on pure speculation and only 1/4 based in truth at that.
    Oct 7 03:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: Tesla at $200 is coming, just not today [View news story]
    His point being that the analysts cannot even figure where this stock is going and simply change tune to what the stock sings. Up or down they follow suit but don't understand it any better than retail investors.
    Oct 3 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs reprice amid hefty dividend cuts [View news story]
    That is rather funny since CMO followed all the same dips but none of the raises. Holding in the same 25% price to price range and paying only a fraction of the dividend and a 1/10 of the net worth. Overall I think we can all agree that generally the stock price follows the BV. With that being the case CMO has a net of 1.2B and pays about 8% AGNC has 9.2B and pays about 15%. Yes, yes payout changes over time as does stock price but overall those numbers are close. We can sit here and pin prick pick specific data points to counter both, however overall AGNC does a much better job managing the money. The are much more efficient on profit production from capital as well as growth. Its not that CMO is a bad company, but they are nowhere near the team that makes up AGNC and its parent company.
    Sep 20 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs reprice amid hefty dividend cuts [View news story]
    you'll have to wait until I have time to write the article for that.
    Sep 20 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche raises Tesla PT to $200 from $160, shares +1% AH [View news story]
    what tickles me is how all the "analysts" get to slap price targets anywhere they want, and when it makes a turn or never reaches that point there is no accountability for false targets. Good news comes out on "X" and they give it a PT of 100.00, bad news two weeks later and it drops to 50.00 all the while "X" remains at about 75.00. Price targets are useless unless they come from a respected source which are harder and harder to find these days.
    Sep 20 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs reprice amid hefty dividend cuts [View news story]
    It is the most well run agency MREIT out there, the management is well skilled and knows how to run company to profit regardless of the environment. Certainly they move up and down in BV and price, however they continue to profit well in excess of most other investments with lower risk.
    Sep 20 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs reprice amid hefty dividend cuts [View news story]
    I think it is more a question of how much of your total portfolio (%) is dedicated toward REIT's. Owning all of them is not my style as I prefer to dig a lot and select only a few top players by my metrics. Owning a slew can be seen as a failure to fully understand the companies, however it is a better hedge overall. Owning all of those prevents the failure of one from bringing down the house. You limit your return but also limit the risk. I would limit my holdings to 10% or less if you are unsure of the direction or risk averse and 25% if you are willing to take on more risk. 25% would be the top end of my recommendation for a total portfolio and that is only for those who have a deep understanding of both the REIT sector as well as the complex arena of mortgage finance.
    Sep 20 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs reprice amid hefty dividend cuts [View news story]
    They have a history of issuing new shares when they are 10%+ BV and then purchasing them at -10%+BV. AGNC is well run for this and many other reasons.
    Sep 20 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche raises Tesla PT to $200 from $160, shares +1% AH [View news story]
    And the rising long term debt and cash burn.
    Sep 18 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After-hours top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m [View news story]
    agnc trading at 23.15 still under the 25.51 NBV,
    Jul 29 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Humphrey Hawkins testimony: The path of the Fed's QE program is "by no means on a preset course," but it is currently anticipated asset purchases will begin being scaled back later this year and could be halted by mid-2014. The U.S. economy remains vulnerable to shocks, including the chance global growth comes in slower than forecast. [View news story]
    here go the Mreits...
    Jul 17 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora (P -7.1%) slumps for the second day in a row after releasing disappointing June audience metrics. A column from The Verge's Greg Sandoval discussing the PR struggles the Internet radio giant is facing in its efforts to lower royalties might also be contributing to the drop. Among other things, Sandoval observes the Internet Radio Fairness Act failed to draw much Congressional support, and that a Pandora petition asking artists to support its legislative efforts triggered a backlash. Shares -11% since Monday's close, but still +99% YTD. [View news story]
    I honestly think long term, without something new to sustain it, $P will fall to the wayside. That old economic equation about being the first and loosing everything, just clearing the jump
    Jul 11 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora (P -7.1%) slumps for the second day in a row after releasing disappointing June audience metrics. A column from The Verge's Greg Sandoval discussing the PR struggles the Internet radio giant is facing in its efforts to lower royalties might also be contributing to the drop. Among other things, Sandoval observes the Internet Radio Fairness Act failed to draw much Congressional support, and that a Pandora petition asking artists to support its legislative efforts triggered a backlash. Shares -11% since Monday's close, but still +99% YTD. [View news story]
    Sell the news...
    Jul 10 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    While the div. is a plus side to the sector, you cannot look at it that way, the div is just the payoff for the risk. The only way to fairly value them is to look at BV and what the impact to BV will be with changes to the YC, lots of private investors look at the 15+% div and think "holy crap, gotta get me some of that" and ignore the reason for the high return. Never forget ECO101 that next to supply and demand is that the money always follows the risk, no matter what.
    Jul 5 10:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    I think that manipulation is a stretch, lemme' explain. My initial thought is, "gee you know how many folks would have to be involved just to get that to work". Then I think, "well crap look at the LIBOR scandal".

    So, could it be? Yup, sure could. Is it? Hard to tell in today's time. I just don't know.

    I do know that the whole MRIT sector is being hounded. I don't know if there is enough support from the outside interest to beat it down on an institutional level, I don't know if the FED is trying to soak up the sector in hopes of playing the same game and making money (or those connected to the FED really, not the FED itself, before someone mis-reads my intent). Time will tell.
    Jul 5 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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