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Ron Reed

 
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  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    While the div. is a plus side to the sector, you cannot look at it that way, the div is just the payoff for the risk. The only way to fairly value them is to look at BV and what the impact to BV will be with changes to the YC, lots of private investors look at the 15+% div and think "holy crap, gotta get me some of that" and ignore the reason for the high return. Never forget ECO101 that next to supply and demand is that the money always follows the risk, no matter what.
    Jul 5 10:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    I think that manipulation is a stretch, lemme' explain. My initial thought is, "gee you know how many folks would have to be involved just to get that to work". Then I think, "well crap look at the LIBOR scandal".

    So, could it be? Yup, sure could. Is it? Hard to tell in today's time. I just don't know.

    I do know that the whole MRIT sector is being hounded. I don't know if there is enough support from the outside interest to beat it down on an institutional level, I don't know if the FED is trying to soak up the sector in hopes of playing the same game and making money (or those connected to the FED really, not the FED itself, before someone mis-reads my intent). Time will tell.
    Jul 5 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock.com: 'The 10-Ks They Are A-Changing' [View article]
    Thanks for taking that, a cool 14% closed today.
    Jul 3 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continued panicky action grips the mortgage REIT sector (REM -3.5%) at the open as the global stock selloff as yet offers no relief on interest rates. Adding to the fear is an opening print of -25% on the Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT -3.7%). American Capital (AGNC -4.5%), (MTGE -2.6%), Annaly (NLY -2.8%), Armour (ARR -4.8%), Invesco (IVR -4.4%), Hatteras (HTS -3.9%), CYS Investments (CYS -3.6%). Set for release from embargo tomorrow is SA Pro's REIT Analyst arguing the selloff in AGNC has left the price about 20% below book value. [View news story]
    No need to change what they are doing now. This is all emotional sell off and presents a great time to buy. Or, a great time to sell puts.
    Jun 24 09:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Actually Propping Up Interest Rates: What This Means For mREITs [View article]
    Good point, if you don't understand what the company does or how it does it, stay out.
    Jun 21 01:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Actually Propping Up Interest Rates: What This Means For mREITs [View article]
    You got it. However so many people trade on emotion and post the same way even more so. If we all traded on emotion we'd be out of the market in short order. Technicals and fundamentals rule every time.
    Jun 21 12:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Actually Propping Up Interest Rates: What This Means For mREITs [View article]
    Outstanding article!
    Jun 21 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The post-FOMC slide looks set to continue at the open with S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.9% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -1%. Markets around the globe all closed sharply in the red overnight and Europe is off more than 2%. There's no flight to fixed income either, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fly higher, now at 2.43%. TLT -1.9%, TBT +4.6% premarket. [View news story]
    had the money spigots never been turned on we would be out of this mess by now. instead we are stuck with a 10+ year 'crises' that will just be all the more painful. just wait until mandatory insurance hits the lower range of employees (50k and less) and you'll begin to see even more pain.
    Jun 20 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama "essentially fired Ben Bernanke on the spot," says ex-Fed Governor Larry Meyer, commenting on the President's remarks during an interview yesterday (he's stayed a lot longer than he was supposed to). Meyer also notes the "tepid" testimonial from the President following that line. "It's time to really now focus on who the next chairman might be." [View news story]
    "Mr President can take the wheel of this ship at any time now..we've been waiting 5 years.."

    Based on everything he has done, I really don't think we want to see that happen.
    Jun 19 08:30 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
    Interestingly enough, all the comments and views generate more income for the author. If his purpose is to simply drive his "clicks" he has done well.
    Jun 12 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
    Most agree, I don't know. I hope they do as well, time will tell.
    Jun 11 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
    Yes, absolute buy. Even if the dividend is reduced we are significantly below NBV. If the dividend is kept at 1.25 you will see the stock skyrocket back to 28-30.
    Jun 11 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
    After a sizable overnight fall, Treasury prices turn green on the session, the 10-year yield falling to 2.22%. The retreat in yields looks to be helping stocks climb off their lows, the DJIA (DIA -0.5%) now off just 75 points vs. about 150 near the open.
    Jun 11 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
    I agree the title was well picked to gain attention, and the article is short on technical analysis and no facts to back up a "gut" feeling. As always when feelings are used to trade they are most often wrong.
    Jun 11 07:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After trading lower this morning, Pandora (P +5.7%) has shot higher on a day that has seen the release of the company's May audience metrics, and an AllThingsD report about an iRadio licensing deal with Sony Music (the last major label to be signed). Pandora's May figures suggest its mobile listening cap continues to change user habits. Listener hours rose 22% Y/Y to 1.35B, but that growth rate is down slightly from April's 24%, and considerably from March's 40%. Also, Pandora's U.S. radio listening shared fell to 7.29% from 7.33% in April and 8.05% in March (it was 5.8% a year ago). Active listeners +1% M/M and +33% Y/Y to 70.8M. [View news story]
    Everyone just seeking for some hope of good news.
    Jun 7 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
282 Comments
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