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Ron Shuttleworth

 
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  • Gold Is Not the Bubble - Apple Is [View article]
    Tim's analysis is nice. The good news is that there appear to be a lot of buyers still for folks who want to take profits. I recently dared to suggest that AAPL was overvalued in comparison to other tech stocks and was amused by the crazy responses. Seeking Alpha loves AAPL threads because it boosts traffic. In terms of the whole cash argument - on a relative basis most of the other tech belweathers have massive amounts of cash on their balance sheets, too. So its a mute point. Tim provides nice insight into relative cashflows.
    Oct 21, 2010. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consensus Earnings Growth Doesn't Justify Share Price for Some Tech Bellwether Stocks [View article]
    Daugherty...it wasn't wrong - at least according to the sources - CapitalIQ and Bloomberg. It could be different now, but it wasn't wrong at the time. And I wasn't looking at P/E. I was looking at EV/EBITDA.

    There is a chance that CapitalIQ feed was incorrect, but the cross check with Bloomberg seemed to match at the time.

    Why so fixated?

    The general theme of the piece was to provide a screen on PEG and EV/EBITDA. It is what it is and the data are the data.

    Happy investing.
    Oct 14, 2010. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consensus Earnings Growth Doesn't Justify Share Price for Some Tech Bellwether Stocks [View article]
    The EV/EBITDA multiple backs out cash and adds debt.
    Oct 13, 2010. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consensus Earnings Growth Doesn't Justify Share Price for Some Tech Bellwether Stocks [View article]
    PalinTologist; your argument regarding AAPL as an exception to "your argument may well be salient regarding some of the other "toppy" stocks you mention".

    The point to the post in the first place was watch with bemusement the rampant justification to exclude AAPL from any fundamental comparatives. The data are the data.

    I believe that AAPL fans should continue to load up. Investors who bought the shares at $100 are the ones selling to them right now.

    Buy low sell high and happy investing.
    Oct 8, 2010. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consensus Earnings Growth Doesn't Justify Share Price for Some Tech Bellwether Stocks [View article]
    The source of the data is CapitalIQ with some cross-checking with Bloomberg. If you are a true believer - by all means buy AAPL. I find it interesting that no AMZN, VMW, CRM, etc...shareholders complained about the analysis. The actual data is from last Friday.

    WRT to the PEG analysis itself - although it provides direction, it has drawbacks. For more background on PEG ratios, just check out wikipedia. The purpose of the post was to simply highlight that investors are expecting a lot out of the stocks some stocks.

    Happy investing.
    Oct 6, 2010. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage of Opportunity in Enterprise IT Sector [View article]
    That's the great disconnect on RIMM. Whereas Dell is a production story (it has no IP), RIMM has fundamental patents on mobile communications and security that give it an advantage in the enterprise over a consumer device such as an iPhone. Also, workers tend to communicate with text more than voice - so a keypad is actually important. Notwithstanding its foray into the consumer segment, RIMM's leadership and margin strength are rooted in the inherent advantages that it enjoys in the enterprise.
    Sep 24, 2010. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to the Age of the Trader [View article]
    Exactly...and just as the culture was changing, the regulators left the room, too.
    May 3, 2010. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Apps Stores: Billing Systems May Determine Success [View article]
    Paypal has about 170 m accounts but only about 70 m are active. iTunes has over 100 m accounts with 65 m active - I tried to highlight it in the table. I believe that the cut off for active is 1 year - although it was not explicit. WRT Paypal/RIM overlap...it is likely smallish to start. I still think that the overriding theme is that its easier to upsell into large account bases...like the carriers. If the carriers are not aligned, then the unaligned handset folks may suffer uptake - at least initially. It's funny how MSFT is so discounted in the space - which they probably like as they hide in the weeds. thx for the comment!


    On Apr 07 04:15 PM Scott Conroy wrote:

    > PayPal has about 150 million users and I would say that there is
    > a significant overlap of smartphone users and PayPal users. This
    > overlap will only increase when considering that Skype is likely
    > to be one of the most popular applications on most smartphones (and
    > paying for Skype is very easy with PayPal).
    >
    > Is Microsoft planning to offer applications for non-MS phones? I
    > haven't heard as such. Assuming they're not, one shouldn't count
    > total carrier subscribers, but only those subscribers using phones
    > based on a Microsoft OS. That number is a tiny fraction of the total
    > number of subscribers.
    Apr 8, 2009. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Newspapers' Shift in Focus to the Web Too Late? [View article]
    The decline is 40.5%. Sorry for the confusion. The actuals are right.


    On Mar 19 11:41 AM Ron Shuttleworth wrote:

    > your right. It should have said "to" not "by".The actual numbers
    > are correct.
    Mar 19, 2009. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Newspapers' Shift in Focus to the Web Too Late? [View article]
    your right. It should have said "to" not "by".The actual numbers are correct.


    On Mar 19 09:14 AM jay fredrickson wrote:

    > This article has some bad numbers in it. If revenue has fallen 67%
    > in 3 years, how could it fall another 20% and then have a four year
    > decline of 50%. If this story would have run in a newspaper, an editor
    > would have caught the gross miscalculations in the second papragraph,
    > the three year revenue has fallen by 40% and not the 67% cited.<br/>Does
    > the writer of this story want to post a corrected version, or should
    > we wait for the error correction to run tomorrow>
    Mar 19, 2009. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Time to Shed Some Brands [View article]
    I don't claim to be an expert. It should be treated as an observation by a typical consumer (although one with a pretty good idea about branding). I'm actually quite surprised that SA syndicated it.

    My inability to distinguish between a Malibu and a Bonneville, or any other GM manufactured product is not my issue. It is (and has been) GM's issue for a long time. It is GM's responsibility to socialize its brands with consumers. And that is the point of the post...it has failed to do this.

    BTW, my dad's 5 year old Malibu bears no resemblance whatsoever to the 2009 Malibu. There is no design continuity that helps retain long-term brand identity and bouy resale value.

    IF GM can make the appropriate changes, it has hope.


    On Feb 19 07:17 AM Miken wrote:

    > Your inability to recognize the highly acclaimed Malibu says it all.
    >
    >
    > Pontiac and Chevrolet are the same cars as long as you can remember?
    > Let me refresh your memory; GTO, Corvette, Bonneville, Impala. Are
    > you able to distinguish which are Pontiacs vs Chevrolets?
    >
    > Sadly, everyone thinks they're an expert and simply regurgitates
    > an article that they read somewhere with no original thought. This
    > author is an excellent example of my point.
    >
    > I do agree completely with one thing this author writes:
    >
    > "I don't really have any business commenting on the auto industry.
    > "
    Feb 19, 2009. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Time to Shed Some Brands [View article]
    Agreed!


    On Feb 19 04:11 AM PeteK wrote:

    > The First thing to Shed is UAW.
    > Otherwise, not much will work for GM.
    > Same thing with Boeing. Not good.
    Feb 19, 2009. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recurring Technology Services Model Comes Home to Roost... Kinda [View article]
    Hi abcde_98;

    Thanks for the comment. I was trying to stay away from bundling the hardware model into this. 99% of the businesses that I see are focusing on the services model. About 15% to 20% have some type of hardware solution bundled (where there is usually unknown financing risk). Even outsourced hosting is of minimal incremental value to many of the solutions I see - unless bundled with security, monitoring and active traffic management. The "cloud" is relatively ubiquitous and commoditized.
    Jan 13, 2009. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research in Motion's Miss Should Not Surprise [View article]
    Check today's link from Morgan Stanley regarding AAPL. It doesn't matter how good the device is...it's about how confident people are upgrading. Many will, but certainly not enough to meet expectations. Read my post again. I didn't say people would run away screaming with their hair on fire. I have never commented on the quality of the devices. My point is that the world economy would cause people to delay upgrade decisions, resulting in disappointing results for all of the smartphone vendors.

    AAPL):+Morgan+Stanley+negative+on+the+stock/4228218.html'>www.streetinsider.com/...



    On Dec 03 02:27 PM Hayweed wrote:

    > Right on Rimm wrong on Apple. Apple has a niche with high end consumers
    > which buufers it more than Rimm. Rimm also has problems with the
    > storm and the bold while Apple has worked out any kinks with their
    > phone. The app store is the big differentiator which RImm and Nokia
    > have no answer for
    Dec 10, 2008. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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