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  • Will Lumia 900 Provide The Boost Nokia Needs? [View article]
    "However the world is moving away from PC's because they find mobile computing more compelling. It has already been shown the past few years that PC's as a platform are stalling."

    Complicated issue. I don't see many businesses replacing desktops with mobile devices. In the consumer market it may be a different story. When personal computers first became affordable, a lot of adults bought them not because they needed them for themselves, but because they wanted their children to become "computer literate" so they could compete in the job marketplace of the future, and of course use the computer to write term papers, learn to type, etc. Along came the Internet, (still only 15 years ago) and all of a sudden little Johnny was up in his room ostensibly doing his homework, but actually watching pornography, sending messages to girls, and so on and the whole concept of what people wanted computers for started to change.

    Now that schools all have computers up the wazoo, there is much less of a perceived need to buy a computer for the home, and a lot of the family budget is being spent on smart phones, Kindles, iPads, etc. People no longer think as much about little Johnnie becoming a computer programer when he grows up, because most of the easy money has been made. Computer literacy is so widespread that even the 3-year-old I am sitting today knows how to use a mouse to crash a computer, though overall literacy is probably not improving at all.

    The biggest change is probably the move from paper books to e-books and the devices to read them, and ten or twenty years from now, kids probably won't have seen paper books except in a museum of antiquities. For this reason I think MSFT has every chance of succeeding in the long run in producing the operating systems that will enable the students of the future to carry their libraries around.
    Apr 12, 2012. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Buying Opportunity On Current Craziness [View article]
    It seems amazing to me that this was not caught before the phone went on the market, considering that MSFT is spending billions on their operating system. Do they not give their own employees the phones to take home and play with? If they don't, they ought to think about it.
    Apr 12, 2012. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Buying Opportunity On Current Craziness [View article]
    Certainly interesting to speculate whether the stock is being manipulated at this point. Massive volume on the sell off today, but nearly all of it in the first half hour, perhaps indicating that a lot of stops were knocked out by the 15% lowering of the bid price at the opening, and of course there must have been a buyer or buyers for this huge volume. This did not look like panic selling or one large institution dumping a huge position onto the market just before the dividend.

    A price below $5 places 99% of the long April calls out of the money, and wipes out the large volume of $5 short puts, so I wonder if this has something to do with it. I can't see the stock price being lower than it is today at the ANNUAL 26 cents ex-div date on May 4th. I would roll any April long calls or short puts to May to see what happens next.
    Apr 11, 2012. 08:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nokia News: Not Surprising [View article]
    I certainly hope this announcement today is not a precursor to cancelling the 2012 (fiscal year 2011) dividend, since they announced only a couple of months ago that the dividend would be cut to the present level, which was approved by the board, and they knew they were expecting a rough transition to Windows phones. To cancel the 26 cents 2012 annual dividend less than a month away from the ex-date would be a devastating indictment of management (though great news for shorts), so I am assuming the dividend holds good, which surely means that stock must come back somewhat prior to the ex-date so as not to offer a whopping approx 6% annual dividend on May 4th.

    If the dividend is cancelled, then I imagine we see a whopping share price drop very soon, which might be good for the one hundred 2014 $2.50 and $5 puts I bought very cheaply with the intention of using them for calendar spreads, but less happy for my long options positions.

    On the other hand, if it remains likely that the dividend will be paid, then surely we see a short squeeze.

    Of course, money can be made out of any stock if you correctly predict whether it will go up, down, or stay the same. The question now is whither NOK right now?
    Apr 11, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 900 Appears A Winner, For Now [View article]
    Interesting that the Lumia 900 apparently costs more to make than the iPhone, which I have read estimated at $186. This gives AAPL huge scope to reduce prices if necessary to compete, and still get better margins than NOK. However still whopping margins for NOK too at wholesale over manufacturing cost. Only need to wholesale 5 million phones to make a $billion.
    Apr 11, 2012. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Could Double By The End Of 2013 [View article]
    I doubt it, though I have 50 2014 $2.50 puts set aside for a rainy day that aren't worth much right now, but their day might come.
    Apr 11, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Wal-Mart Need Change To Boost Sales? [View article]
    If Walmart has a problem, it is probably because the US working population at large has less money to spend that it used to. The stores are open 24 hours and convenient for shift workers in a way that roadside stalls are not. The pharmacy sections are excellent and have the best value of all the chains. Although they have everyday low prices, they also sell iPads.

    Maybe they aren't going to grow at a huge rate except by expanding into different markets, but they are still the best game in town.

    One factor that is not often mentioned is that Walmart superstores are often located in smaller communities, and the stores, together with the other businesses inside the stores, often serve as community marketplaces where people meet each other in a casual setting. They could build much more on this aspect by having more businesses inside the store. For example a large supermarket in the Dominican Republic near where I live has an upstairs cafeteria, pharmacy, bank, ice cream parlor, two cell phones stores, a Domino's Pizza, a laundry and dry cleaners, and ATMs for 4 different banks. You can also buy cell phone minutes at the pharmacy by just giving them money and your number and they add the minutes directly to your phone without the need for scratch cards, PINs, etc.

    Walmart has some of these amenities, but could do more to make its Supercenters more welcoming and useful.
    Apr 11, 2012. 07:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 900 Appears A Winner, For Now [View article]
    But that is because most camera phones are so lousy. Put a really good camera in a phone and maybe journalists all over the world will carry that in their pocket as basic equipment and leave behind the other camera. After all, it is very convenient to be able to take a quick picture and phone it in without having to transfer it from one device to another, something that is made particularly difficult with the iPhone, I might add.
    Apr 10, 2012. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 900 Appears A Winner, For Now [View article]
    Don't underestimate the power of Amazon reviews, because many people use them to find out about a product even if they don't plan to buy from Amazon, and reviews from regular users are often more credible than those of professional reviewers. Of course there is bound to be owner bias when people have already committed to a contract without trying the phone, and the reviews that are the most interesting are always the negative ones.
    Apr 10, 2012. 03:40 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The apparent weak early sales for Nokia's (NOK) Lumia 900 phone might have something to do with AT&T's (T) inexplicable decision to launch it on Easter Sunday. Checks from the NYT found that nearly all 39 AT&T stores near Times Square were either closed for or did not answer phone calls. Those that were open didn't have the device in stock.  [View news story]
    NOK descended to the dead. On the third day NOK rose again...
    NOK will come again to judge the living and the Droid.
    Apr 10, 2012. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The apparent weak early sales for Nokia's (NOK) Lumia 900 phone might have something to do with AT&T's (T) inexplicable decision to launch it on Easter Sunday. Checks from the NYT found that nearly all 39 AT&T stores near Times Square were either closed for or did not answer phone calls. Those that were open didn't have the device in stock.  [View news story]
    It will take time to get all the usual apps available, but how many purchases depend on apps remains to be seen. My brokerage is TradeKing and they have an iPhone app, but not for the iPad--which still seems to sell quite well! I don't think there is an app yet for Windows, but on the other hand you can work around by going to m.tradeking.com or else using the full Web site with your browser.

    I suspect that often talk of "not enough apps" is just "my dad is stronger than your dad" talk, but that is not to say that it won't influence some people.
    Apr 10, 2012. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Lumia 900 Provide The Boost Nokia Needs? [View article]
    Nobody really "needs" a smart phone. I don't have one, though I have an iPod touch which is pretty much the same thing as far as the non calling part goes. It is a useful all-in-one tool. Last night when we had a power cut, I was able to use it as a flashlight to find the matches and candles. I use it daily as a timer for cooking, sometimes as an alarm clock, sometimes as a Kindle reader, for my subscription to e-version of The Economist, to take photographs of airline or car reservations, (though it is pretty useless for general photography) and keep a backup copy of my passport and a list of important numbers, and to carry music when traveling. But none of this is life or death, and the same goes for most people who have them for other than business purposes. It is just a nice fun thing to have, and it cost a lot less than an iPhone with no monthly payment. I have 2 phones I use for calls. Neither cost more than $10.

    I think Nokia ditched Symbian because developing and updating operating systems just for phones is a massively expensive commitment for a hardware maker when you can get a dedicated software company to do all that work and have more independent developers making apps, then just stick to designing and making devices. I don't know if there is a Seeking Alpha app for Symbian--probably not-- but I bet that if there isn't one for Windows, there soon will be.
    Apr 9, 2012. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Constructive Critique Of Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    I was just suggesting that those were the kind of abbreviations the poster did not understand. Of course I know what they mean, and if I didn't I would look them up.

    As for bios, I rarely Follow people unless their bios indicate that they are likely to have useful knowledge that might help me evalutate investments, and I am more skeptical of the value of comments of those who do not provide bios, though there are one or two whom I do follow who have proved themselves though consistent outstanding posts.
    Apr 9, 2012. 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Supervalu Is Drastically Undervalued [View article]
    I think Walmart's grocery is quite good compared to most. Their own brand of Great Value products is cheap and good quality, their fruit and veg sections are fine. Meat is so-so. Bread and cakes are lousy and everything is oversugared, but the same in other supermarkets. Prices pretty good on commodities like eggs, milk, flour, sugar, rice. Good range of Hispanic products and vegetables (in Florida). Frozen foods best avoided.

    Save-A-Lot has certain items available that WMT does not have, but the vegetable section is poor. Forget about bread. Good for some frozen items like yucca in chunks or packets of frozen fish filets.
    Apr 9, 2012. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Constructive Critique Of Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    It was just an aside, and I think you completely missed the point of my iPhone analogy in the next paragraph.
    Apr 9, 2012. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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