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  • 3 Reasons You Want to Own Wal-Mart for the Next 30 Years [View article]
    I sold some $50 puts a while back. I don't mind if the stock is put to me.
    Jun 22 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Note to Apple Fans: Stop Talking About Value [View article]
    Which industry?
    Jun 22 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look at Sirius XM's Used Car Deal With GM [View article]
    From what I can see all your posts are about Sirius radio, all your posts are bullish, and you provide no biographical information or comments on your investment aims.

    If SIRI is the only stock you have, then I could understand your anxiety!

    I have no position in SIRI and am not likely to take one in the next 72 hours. I did make a bit of money with short options on the stock last month, but nothing life changing. Personally I would not want a major position in this stock, as it would make me anxious too. Anyway, good luck to all SIRI longs.

    Just got back from a 7-hour round trip to Miami International Airport. SIRI might have provided some company on the return journey through the sugar plantations and hick towns, but I managed to make do with the company of Terri Gross and a couple of the local Spanish language stations.
    Jun 22 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look at Sirius XM's Used Car Deal With GM [View article]
    According to Wikipedia Sirius charges $499 for a subscription that is the life of the RECEIVER, so it goes with the car.

    "Terms and Conditions for SIRIUS Subscribers". Sirius Satellite Radio. "A "Lifetime Subscription" is one that continues for the life of the receiver equipment. ... A Lifetime Subscription associated with a home, portable, or plug & play receiver is transferable from one receiver to another receiver, up to a maximum of three (3) times. Each permitted transfer of a Subscription is subject to a transfer fee."

    Is this not correct, or no longer current?
    Jun 22 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look at Sirius XM's Used Car Deal With GM [View article]
    Reading the rest of YOUR comments, it appears that you are a paid lobbyist for SIRI corp.

    You provide a link that states that people have an average commute to work of 24 minutes. The size of the the workforce in the US is about 150 million, which means that about 1/2 the population are not employees. The unemployment rate is about 10% officiallly, but really about 20% by some estimates.

    You don't answer the point that only about 8% of public radio's 34 million listeners actually make contributions, even though they regularly listen to the stations.

    or that public radio stations are worried that downloading of podcasts may further erode their contributor base:

    These factors are obviously extremely significant for SIRI.

    I would also wonder whether the uptake rate is lower for female car owners and minorities, ethnic Hispanics, etc.

    Best bet, by far, for SIRI is to have a lifetime subscription to SIRI financed along with the purchase a new car so the subscriber doesn't really see the payment or have the option to discontinue.

    BTW, I subscribe to satellite TV and listen to several hours of radio programing per week, some over the air and some via Internet.
    Jun 22 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look at Sirius XM's Used Car Deal With GM [View article]
    Sure, but 20 million people is already almost 1 in 10 of the passenger vehicles in the US, and how many intelligent, discriminating people are there who don't want to listen to NPR which is available everywhere and is free of commercials. 20 million could be getting close to saturation.

    I would not hesitate to agree that a car equipped with Sirius radio is more pleasurable to use than one that isn't, but the question is about how many people are willing to pay for it.

    One estimate is that 8.3% of public radio listeners donate, but then they are subjected to constant fund raising drives. I doubt whether the uptake for Sirius would be as high, because most public radio listeners have a long standing relationship with their local station, regardless of whether they ever send money.
    Jun 21 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: 'The Hollywood Economist: The Hidden Financial Reality Behind the Movies' [View article]
    "Major studios avoid simultaneously competing in the same demographic categories by using a service that reports the relative potential draw of various new movies appealing to the same category of viewers if offered at the same time."

    Didn't prevent Braveheart and Rob Roy both being issued at the same time.
    Jun 21 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worthless Stocks That Refuse to Go to Zero [View article]
    Interesting. I had a friend who was like that. He would say things like, "Hey, I just bought 10,000 Fannie Mae for 10 cents apiece. If they just go up to 15 cents, then I clean up and make 50%."

    To which I would reply, well, you can imagine.

    But the interesting thing is that this guy is an above average intelligence professional man with a degree from a good university.

    " Sirius, man,it's cheap. Only two dollars a share. You should look at that. Exxon, nah, look at the price, it can't go up from there."

    But then again, people could not trade these defunct stocks if there was not a market maker involved.
    Jun 21 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look at Sirius XM's Used Car Deal With GM [View article]
    Yeah, but here's the thing.

    A lot of people just use their cars to run around locally, so probably aren't in the car long enough to make it worth while to subscribe to a radio service.

    Of the people who commute to and from the work the vast majority are served either by public radio with current affairs shows like Morning Edition, the Diane Reem show, or All Things Considered , which are stodgy but probably better than anything available on commercial radio, or else they are served by the local country and western or spanish language stations.

    This only leaves a relatively small number of people who are on the road a lot, like truck drivers, and who might want to pay to subscribe to consistent radio reception, because in most of the country all you can get is religious radio, Rush Limbaugh radio, and country music, and if you want to listen to Frank Sinatra or a radio drama or Wimbledon tennis, then you are dead out of luck.

    I did a 600-mile round trip weekly commute for 8 1/2 years, but even so, getting satellite radio never occurred to me, and I recorded various podcasts, played CDs or music from my mp3 player, learned languages, and listened to some NPR offerings--so there are a lot of options out there.
    Jun 21 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Note to Apple Fans: Stop Talking About Value [View article]
    Back in the early 70's I used to go to a betting shop in England every lunch time to back horses. That was before I had an IRA.

    There was a guy there, one of the regulars in the shop every day, evidently unemployed, who was the local philosopher. Every race was rigged, he used to proclaim, but every now and again they would let the favorite win, so as to keep the bettors coming back.

    Welcome to SA, my old pal.
    Jun 21 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Note to Apple Fans: Stop Talking About Value [View article]
    Fundamentally I don't disagree with you, but it seems to me that even if AAPL sales and margins slow down a bit, in a few years that cash pile will have grown to $315 per share, so something has to give. Introduction of a dividend would mean that huge numbers of dividend funds, and index funds like SDY (SPDR S&P Dividend) , and pension funds would have to take or increase positions, which would increase demand for the stock. I made a killing last year when I was able to buy BP very cheap when the dividend was cancelled and dividend funds had to dump their holdings at fire sale prices. The reverse would apply if AAPL declares a dividend.
    Jun 21 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has the June Swoon Created a Value Boon? [View article]
    Good article. Probably a good time to sell out of the money puts on these stocks. Either you make the money, or you get the stock cheaper than it is today. If the stock goes down, then sell some more puts at lower strikes.

    In a down market like this, you can't help making money. It's the bull markets that are tough, because of the danger of selling prematurely.
    Jun 21 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Note to Apple Fans: Stop Talking About Value [View article]
    Everybody is right. AAPL will go higher at some point, whether it is related to a stock split, to enhanced earnings, or when the company starts using that mountain of cash to pay dividends, but the question right now is whether it will go lower before it goes higher, which depends on the ratio of buyers to sellers over the next couple of months.

    For someone with a short term or trading perspective, or a fund manager who wants to keep his job on December 31st, this is crucial. For someone long the stock in an IRA who plans to retire in 2030, this short term view is much less significant.

    Buying now at $315 could be the bargain of a lifetime, even if the stock goes to $290 next month, and $270 in August, but buying the stock at $270 in August would be an even better deal, because by the time it got back to $315 you would already be ahead 15% instead of breaking even and possibly you could start thinking of moving your retirement date forward to 2025.

    Simple, when you think about it.
    Jun 21 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: How to Use Covered Call Options to Enhance Returns [View article]
    People have heard that options are risky. Also like anything else, for example learning to speak a new language, although not inherently difficult, it requires a certain amount of effort to get started and get to the point where you have enough basic knowledge to make the addition of further vocabulary fun rather than a chore.

    In an offline discussion with a well-known SA poster who is an attorney and businessman and former CFO of a REIT, he told me how numerous of his acquaintances and contacts who are successful in business have listened carefully to his explanations of how investing with options reduces risk, and then said that as far as they are concerned investing in stocks is too risky, period.

    No doubt this is partly due to the fine job done by the media in bringing news of the crashes of 2000 and 2008 to the public at large.

    My interest in options started with the idea of enhancing yield through covered calls, but, like anything else, if you get interested in the idea, then you start thinking of ways to improve the strategy and asking yourself "what if" questions and jotting down little equations on paper towels, and before you know it you are mentally inventing novel strategies like the split strike broken wing butterfly put spread and then, on doing more research, discovering that someone else has already invented it long ago, and so it goes. One's state of knowledge can never stay the same.
    Jun 21 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Downside Risk: $290 Just Based on Cash [View article]
    I don't know, just looking at some AAPL numbers:

    Current stock price is $315.

    You could sell October $300 call for $31.90 and buy 2 October 335 calls for $14.45 each. Credit $3 per share.


    sell October $335 puts for $33.25 and buy 2 October $300 puts for $16.75 each. Debit $0.

    Now if the position closes with the stock anywhere from $300 to $335 you lose $35 per share. It needs to be below $270 or above $365 to break even (approximate numbers from mental arithmetic).

    Maybe it would work better selling deeper in the money calls and puts. I will look at it tomorrow.
    Jun 21 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment