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  • Being Long Gold Equals Shorting The Financial System [View article]
    So is gold.

    The coins are heavy and will quickly wear a hole in your pocket. You cannot mail it.

    It is also rather soft. People would try to file a little off each coin to accumulate gold dust.

    It is difficult to transfer large sums because of the weight which makes it not energy efficient.

    It is easy to steal.
    Sep 7, 2011. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Talk Of A Bubble In Gold [View article]
    I think this video says it all. It is very short, but to the point.
    Sep 7, 2011. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Coming Industrial Revival [View article]
    That's right. Sometimes I used to eat in Crackerbarrel restaurants, and for their decor they have advertisements and products from the approximate periods of 1880-1960 hung on their walls and the overriding impression is of US self sufficiency in the essentials of life.

    Shoe laces, cooking pans, tennis rackets, bicycles? Made in the USA.
    Sep 7, 2011. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Most Owned Stocks By 'Super Investors' [View article]
    Sounds like common sense, but how many people would bet a large part of their portfolio on selling CVX or XOM puts with a strike price 20% below the current share price? The big boys can afford to take a very long term perspective, because they don't need this money to live on.
    Sep 7, 2011. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Long Gold Equals Shorting The Financial System [View article]
    Fertilizers consist of potash (potassium), nitrogen, and phosphorus, of which potash is the most scare.
    Sep 7, 2011. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Long Gold Equals Shorting The Financial System [View article]
    Huh? Who is my teacher?
    Sep 7, 2011. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Long Gold Equals Shorting The Financial System [View article]
    Yes, I am a little tongue in cheek about potash and Venerability is quite correct that you cannot make jewellery out of it. (Always good to get the feminine perspective on these matters.). You can't fill your teeth with it either.

    However it does seem to me that people are trying to make a bit of a cult out of gold and there are many businesses buying and selling gold to suckers that try to use forums like this to sneak advertise themselves. I never watch TV, but I understand that commercials for buying and selling gold or trading in same are common.

    It is important that we don't make a cult out of gold like the ancient Israelites who decided to worship a golden calf. Luckily they had a strong leader who put a stop to the nonesense.

    Moses burnt the golden calf in a fire, ground it to powder, scattered it on water, and forced the Israelites to drink it.

    I'm not suggesting that Obama should take a leaf out of Moses' book, and anyway there is probably something in the EPA regulations that would stand in his way, but let's remember that gold is not the only thing that glisters.
    Sep 7, 2011. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning Your Portfolio For A Bear Market [View article]
    Your portfolio sounds almost identical to mine, but there are maybe half a dozen ways to structure a portfolio depending on what you believe.

    Either you believe the market is going up, or you believe the market is going up and down, or you believe the market is going down then up, or up then down, or you believe the market is going down for the forseeable future.

    So basically you want a short portfolio with long hedges, or a long portfolio with short hedges, plus a plan on when to cash in on your hedges if you are expecting a reversal.

    Many ploys can work both ways in a choppy market. For example yesterday I bought 20 October $115 SPY puts and sold 20 October $113 SPY puts for a spread of 70 cents.

    Now if the market heads up I can buy back the short puts cheaper and I have a fairly cheap disaster hedge for what I expect to be a pretty choppy couple of months. The upward move in the market will also increase the net value of other short puts and long positions in my portfolio, so I will be a happy investor.

    If the market then heads down, my puts increase in value, and at some point I may lock in profits by selling more puts, hopefully when VIX is very high.

    If the market heads down from here that is fine too. My put spreads are then in the money, so I can cash out or put in a limit order to lock in the profits.

    However the bottom line is that if you think the market is headed up and it is headed down, you WILL lose money. And vice versa. You can make just as much money regardless of which way the market moves, but you have to get it right, otherwise you might as well park your portfolio in neutral.

    The coming bear market could make you rich! If it comes!
    Sep 7, 2011. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Long Gold Equals Shorting The Financial System [View article]
    You are a little nutty. The point is that any indispensable commodity has a value independent of money. Without potash, you would be dead, but you can survive quite well without gold.
    Sep 6, 2011. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Long Gold Equals Shorting The Financial System [View article]
    Being long POT, or any commodity stock might achieve the same thing.
    Sep 6, 2011. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning Your Portfolio For A Bear Market [View article]
    If you believe we are heading into a bear market, then clearly you need to put the majority of your portfolio into short or buy puts on the market indexes, or short funds like ST, with a few longs (maybe AAPL and GLD) as hedges just in case the market does not completely implode and you are left destitute.

    Another strategy would just be to go to 100% cash. Or to keep your long positions, but collar them and essentially park them in neutral.

    By diversifying all over the place, you simply dilute your portfolio and achieve nothing.
    Sep 6, 2011. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On Fear [View article]
    The only problem with selling the 6-month puts is that you tie up a lot of margin, because the near month puts you buy don't provide coverage for their full life.

    However, in general it is fair to assume that with the VIX what goes up must come down eventually.
    Sep 6, 2011. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To Blame For The Initial Ultrabook Short Supply [View article]
    I don't know. I was in Best Buy today and they had a whole slew of touchscreen desktop computers by different makers complete with proper keyboard and mouse. They call them "all-in-one" computers and the cheapest I saw was only $599, so not much more than an iPad, but to my mind much more functional. And these suckers don't even have the new Windows 8 yest.

    It looked to me that you could just about fit one of the smaller ones into a carry-on case, which, if so, would make them much better than a laptop. Although too big to use on an airplane, they would be real nice to have at your destination.
    Sep 6, 2011. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Collar Your Gold To Protect Profits [View article]
    Well, thanks, Convo!

    I think there is a reasonable chance that gold may reach escape velocity and go to the moon, so one might as well prepare to get a small piece of the action at no risk by ratcheting up, rather than just be on the sidelines tut-tutting while gold goes to $4,000 and the idiots get rich while the sensible folks see their sensible investments circling the plughole.

    Of course, if gold suddenly goes through the floor, you can quickly consign your long position to the memory hole and have plausible deniability that you were ever a gold bug.
    Sep 6, 2011. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Way Undervalued After 30% Sell-Off [View article]
    You might be interested in this article:
    Sep 6, 2011. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment