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Rubicon Associates
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Rubicon Associates is headed by a Chartered Financial Analyst with over 20 years of experience in the investment management industry focused on the analysis, investment and management of fixed income and preferred stock portfolios. Over the years, he has analyzed and invested in both public and... More
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  • GDP Now Update

    Uptick in the forecast, but still running below consensus.

    Latest forecast - July 1, 2015

    The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 2.2 percent on July 1, up from 2.1 percent on June 25. The nowcasts for second-quarter growth in real equipment and nonresidential structures investment increased slightly following this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute of Supply Management.

    Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast

    Tags: gdp, economy, fed
    Jul 02 9:47 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Gross' Outlook

    From Bill Gross' Investment Outlook:

    • Mutual funds, hedge funds, and ETFs, are part of the "shadow banking system" where these modern "banks" are not required to maintain reserves or even emergency levels of cash. Since they in effect now are the market, a rush for liquidity on the part of the investing public, whether they be individuals in 401Ks or institutional pension funds and insurance companies, would find the "market" selling to itself with the Federal Reserve severely limited in its ability to provide assistance.
    • Aside from the obvious drop in trading volumes shown above, the obvious risk - perhaps better labeled the "liquidity illusion" - is that all investors cannot fit through a narrow exit at the same time. But shadow banking structures - unlike cash securities - require counterparty relationships that require more and more margin if prices should decline. That is why PIMCO's safe haven claim of their use of derivatives is so counterintuitive. While private equity and hedge funds have built-in "gates" to prevent an overnight exit, mutual funds and ETFs do not.

    Many might ask why I would post this. Well, while not the 800lb gorilla in the market, Bill Gross is a smart guy. As markets are made of opinions, know the smart ones and the popular ones and figure out how to trade them.

    Jul 01 5:03 PM | Link | Comment!
  • EDR - Sandler Upgrades

    News on EDR on the tape:

    Education Realty Trust upgraded to buy from hold given better preleasing prospects for next year following student housing forum, Sandler O'Neill Alexander Goldfarb writes in note.

    • Preleasing expected to be ahead 115bps this fall: Goldfarb, citing Axiometrics forecast
      • Lower supply growth for next yr at ~41k new beds vs ~63k last yr
    • Majority of panel of ACC, EDR, others sees rent growth 3%-5%, w/ high 90% range occupancy this fall
    • EDR underperformed this yr partly due to impact of capital raises last yr; now well-positioned w/ expected ~9% FFO growth next yr, strong balance sheet
    • EDR (PT $37) has 4 buys, 5 holds, 3 sells w/ avg PT $38: Bloomberg

    Wrote about EDR here, maintaining it is the best in class!

    I love it when a plan comes together.

    Tags: EDR
    Jun 26 10:44 AM | Link | Comment!
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    May 6, 2015
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    May 5, 2015
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