Seeking Alpha
  • Rubicon Associates
    SAN not cut by S&P. Prefs and common still attractive.
    5/25/12
    Reply (15)
    • eabyrd: Bold call considering the risks...
      5/25/12
    • Caiman Valores: I like the call and despite some of my concerns I am with you on that one.
      5/26/12
    • Caiman Valores: Did you see that SAN will reduce its holdings in its most profitable Latin American operation, Banco Santander Brasil, doesn't bode well.
      5/26/12
    • eabyrd: There's just no way of determining it's value since we don't know the extent of Greek debt held, the scope of the bank runs and impact on..
      5/26/12
    • eabyrd: ..deposits, the write downs that lie ahead, etc... At some point it'll be a great buy. But I need positive news before stepping in front..
      5/26/12
    • eabyrd: ..of that train. The charts are a complete wreck and there's no indication yet that this thing is simmering down. I'd rather be short.
      5/26/12
    • eabyrd: But that's too risky at the moment... so I'll stay on the sidelines. How about NBG instead? lol
      5/26/12
    • Rubicon Associates: NBG is a waaaayyyyy out of the money call on Greece. Think this one might expire worthless.
      5/26/12
    • Caiman Valores: eabyrd SAN has a very low exposure to Greek sovereign debt around $110M if memory serves me right.
      5/26/12
    • Rubicon Associates: CV, you know it. SAN is not a Spanish bank - it is a global bank that is located in Spain.
      5/26/12
    • Caiman Valores: Mike, I agree with your call and the ongoing drop in the share price is sentiment driven.
      5/26/12
    • eabyrd: Michael - lol yea, I'm looking at the August 2015 0.10 Calls... :)
      5/27/12
    • eabyrd: Perhaps they're just victim of circumstance... But if we get thru Greece and move to Spain, Italy, etc, what would be the effects then?
      5/27/12
    • Caiman Valores: eabyrd while i have concerns about SAN's exposure to Spanish RE and the valuation of its loan portfolio events in Brazil are more worrying
      5/27/12
    • Chris Lau: calling SAN bottom is like calling NOK bottom - better wait for a sustained reversal, along with holding otm long term calls
      6/1/12