Rufus D

Etf investing, tech, angel investing
Rufus D
ETF investing, tech, angel investing
Contributor since: 2011
Maybe you could just set up the 2016 Dollar Cost Averaging Model Portfolio (DCAMP) on just one of the platforms, say Vanguard. That would save some time on doing updates. From your numbers below, the DCAMP would be down 4.45% of $10k, or just 0.445% overall. That's a good way to de-risk tough weeks like this one, and if the correction gets worse, you invest more on the way down. So the DCAMP recovery will be much quicker once things turn around, my guess after the election.
Nice work, thanks for posting. It will be interesting to see how your core portfolio performs vs your new 2016 model portfolio. Will you do any rebalancing? Here's another idea: how about have the 2016 Dollar Cost Averaging Model Portfolio. It might be interesting to have the exact same portfolio allocation, but only put in $10k to start, and invest another $10k on the first of every month. So as of now you would have $10k invested, and $90k cash. Then see how that compares to jumping all in.
Companies always can control their tax bill by deciding how much to charge, and how much to invest back in the business. Amazon has paid almost no taxes (finally this year they will owe some) because Bezos has continuously taken any margin from sales and spent it on infrastructure, new ideas, and strategic acquisitions. And shareholders love that, because we would rather have Jeff Bezos investing the profits than the government wasting them. Vanguard is doing the same thing. They could generate more profit by charging higher fees to customers, but then the government gets to spend the profits, not the customers. And don't forget, the customers also have to pay taxes on the earnings from the funds. So the government gets its share no matter what already.
T.I. has plenty of fabs for both analog and digital devices, and is doing well. It is also a matter of targeting the right market segments and devices. The semiconductor industry has long survived on quick innovation across a wide variety of applications, and will continue to do so. Today's winner is tomorrow's loser, but companies like Nvidia with the cash reserves to survive the market misses (like Intel missed mobile) are the ones that will eventually come back, fabless or not.
Best book club discussion I have ever seen. Well done, I just ordered the book with 1-click from you know where.
I have enjoyed Seeking Alpha for many years, and looking forward to many more. You provide a great service to the small investor community that we cannot get anywhere else.
Taylor also pulled out of Spotify. She is the leader of the content creator revolution in which artists deserve to get paid for audio and video plays and downloads. She is also the leader of the 'ladies can play the guitar too' revolution, which is awesome. Well played on all fronts.
Fidelity customers can also consider ITOT for commission free trading.
You were reading my mind. My balanced index ETF portfolio of stocks, bonds and reits is up 0.5% YTD, and would be underwater if I had not chosen a large allocation to the healthcare segment. The bonds and REITs are down -1.5% to -6.5% and dropping daily. Even reliables like DVY and LQD are getting hammered. Seeing drops of -$5k to -$10k in a single day in a supposedly 'balanced' portfolio is nerve racking, especially when it is the supposedly lower risk bond side that is getting killed. Everyone is bailing from bonds, which is causing the new highs in the stock indexs.
It has never been easier to vet and invest in small cap stocks and startups due to the rise of investment crowdfunding platforms like AngelList and EquityNet. Wall Street has ignored this segment, so crowdfunding is about to reinvent it in a whole new way. Extensive due diligence is key for these small caps, and now investors can to that online with the investor disclosures and business information that is readily available. And soon, when Reg A+ becomes active next month, there will be secondary markets (replacing Wall Street) for these securities, and both retail and accredited investors will be able to participate. Don't buy small cap securities from wall street, buy them from the company directly with crowdfunding.
Well said. One other key point: private investment rounds benefit the company, because most of the new money goes into their coffers (although some earlier round investors sometimes can exit during the private rounds too). After the IPO, the public markets are nothing but a big secondary market, with traders trying to guess how much other traders will pay. If you buy Apple stock, Apple gets nothing, and that doesn't help Apple grow. But a private placement does.
As you describe so well here, the traditional public market institutional investors have recognized the ROI problem with the public markets and have started to go more and more into private placement. The public market retail investors are being targeted as the last sucker in line for this pump and dump scam around these unicorn companies.
AdBlockPlus works fine, I use it on Firefox and Chrome. If you want to see the difference, just look at some of your favorite pages using Internet Explorer without AdBlockPlus, and Chrome with it. The difference is often astounding, much easier to find what you want without all the ad noise. You can also view or click on the little AdBlockPlus Stop sign on your browser bar and see exactly how many ads are being blocked on a page. For example, on this Seeking Alpha page, 8 ads are blocked right now. This is a great technology, highly recommended. Google's one trick pony advertising revenue stream is going to be toast soon, and not just on youtube.
Circa 1981. Reporter: So what will people use these computer gizmos for? IBM: Well, you can keep your recipes on them. Circa 2015. Reporter: So what will people use these Internet of Things gizmos for? Amazon: Well, you can order stuff for your recipes on them.
I like the Simon and Garfunkel reference in the title, from The Sounds of Silence, 'Hello darkness my old friend...'
Hello Hunter, this is an excellent analysis of Lending Club, thanks for posting. You are 100% correct that the proprietary credit rating system is the core value of the company. For the first several years, they struggled with analyzing the big data and making the grading system consistent, but once they were able to do that, everything took off like a rocket. That is why even the banks now want to use LC to find, rate, approve, and service loans. Amazing! This company represents one of the biggest disruption trends in the financial technology space, and they are well positioned to continue as a big winner.
Good post. I agree, buy the loans, not the stock. Also Lending Club will still not be able to operate in multiple states where banking regulations restrict them. Nothing to do with going public.
Several people have responded that they got in at $15 because of the special Direct stock purchase program that Lending Club offered to lending account holders on Lending Club. That pretty much is the definition of an insider: you got a special deal that no retail investor could get, because you were an early investor in the company with your lending dollars. Keep in mind that Lending Club is not allowed to operate in many states depending on banking regulations, so retail investors in those states had no chance to participate in the insider trading deal that others got. So to those few who got the stock directly at the pre-market price of $15, I say congratulations, welcome to the pump and dump team.
Good post. Lending Club is losing money, so it falls under the category of a long list of IPOs lately that are being sold on hype to allow the original investors to bail out at the expense of the retail investors in the public markets. The stock exchanges have become a pump and dump scheme for the inside players to get their money out, and it is working like a champ for them. The IPO price was $15, which was a bribe to all the insider brokerages to go out and pump up the price to retail. The stock opened above $22 and never looked back. Nobody on seeking alpha got a $15 share of Lending Club. The pump and dump hype will continue until all the insiders have exited, and those who come in now will be left holding the (empty) bag. Instead of buying their stock, take some of that money and buy a diversified list of 10 or more loans on Lending Club with various risk ratings. This will reduce your risk while giving good returns.
Well said bostonprof, every point you make is right on the money.
Google is barely hanging on. They are a one-trick pony, and their terrible management team is catching up to them. Google has consistently devalued software by giving away free versions of valuable software to hurt competitors, and milking their ad-click cash cow to do it. Now that Facebook and many other competitors have figured out better ways to service that advertising market in a mobile world, Google will pay the price. They have no plan B.
After testing on ETF replay yesterday, I found that a 50/50 portfolio of VTI and LQD performs very well across all time periods even without rebalancing since 2008. It outperforms the S&P500 for several of the backtested years, with as expected about half the volatility. We get an even better result if VTI is replaced with VHT. This might make a nice benchmark for comparison to your strategies.
Excellent post, thanks. Please post more on adaptive momentum strategies when you have time.
Thanks for the excellent summary and commentary.
Good post. I agree VTI is the best core holding for any ETF strategy.
Thanks for the post. It would be interesting to add a high quality corporate bond fund like LQD to your analysis.
Google is a one-trick pony. Search ad clicks are stumbling and being replaced by competitors using social media marketing. Google has used this cash cow for years to illegally manipulate the software business by giving away free versions of valuable software, while at the same time playing around with whacky ideas like some nutty professor movie. Google has no backup plan. The final nail in their coffin: Microsoft can start offering free ads on Bing. They don't need ad revenue to grow, Google is dead without it. Hey, if all software should be free and open source, why not all advertising too?
Good post and charts, thanks. I wonder if you would like to do a similar comparison for the core bond funds? BND, TLT, a couple more you like?
Wouldn't Apple prefer to get $99 a year from every iTunes account? And toss in some goodies like live concert streaming and daily app specials? iPrime anyone?
Microsoft can make this even more interesting with one simple move: free ads on Bing. Microsoft does not need ad revenue to grow, but Google has nothing but ad revenue to survive on. In mobile and notebooks, Google decided that operating systems should be free by using its ad revenue cash cow to subsidize all of its Android and Chrome development. And Google has repeated this hardcore monopolistic tactic with google docs and many other products. They think software should be free, but access to information about consumers should cost money. And they are not only willing to profit from collecting data about you and selling it, they are also willing to give it all the NSA. It's time for Microsoft to fight back. Software developed by thousands of smart software engineers does have value, and that business model is better for all of us. Free ads on Bing would be a good step in getting Google under control.
If Microsoft decides to offer Windows 9 free, they will also offer free ads for all on Bing the same day. Let the games begin. I think you should do an analysis of the revenue impact on both companies once search ads are free.
Right you are jayeeffeff. Microsoft does not need to dump Bing. On the contrary, there is only one thing that Microsoft needs to do: offer free ads on Bing. The same way Google gives away free clones of valuable Microsoft products. Bing is not needed by Microsoft as an ad based revenue stream generator, but search ads is the only real revenue stream for Google. Time to fight fire with fire!
You could not be farther off on your analysis of google and android. Google uses its cash cow of search ad revenue to fund free versions of valuable software products and releases them into the market with very limited testing or support. They claim this is part of their altruistic open source philosophy. Bull. It is a planned anti-competitive strategy to hurt competitors by destroying the value of their products. It is the monopolists dream, and google is pursuing it with a vengeance. Perhaps Microsoft should try it the other way around: offer free ads on Bing to everybody. They have their own cash cows to fund the crushing of google, and it would be sweet to see it happen.