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Rupert Hargreaves

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  • These Offshore Drillers Will Struggle Over The Next Few Years [View article]
    Investing Doc, I must admit I do agree that some of the data looks out of place. However, aside from collecting and collating all the data myself and sourcing it, there's no definitive way to set it out. Even if I did collect it all and source it, there would still be debate from some users.

    RigLogix is the most definitive, central and easily accessible source I have at present.

    I intend to go over each fleet separately over the next few weeks, which will be a more indepth analysis, rather than a summary as above. Hopefully that will be of more help. It should also flush out any anomalies with the data.
    Aug 14 01:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Offshore Drillers Will Struggle Over The Next Few Years [View article]
    Haha well done. I thought you said no further reading was recommended?

    It's true, I did make a mistake in the original. I submitted the edit than had to wait for it to be republished. You're just quicker than me that's all.

    The MLP structure has been used a lot by drillers this year, including the Seadrill Partners spin. Rowan was quizzed about a MLP structure on its Q2 call, Ocean Rig is converting, and Transocean has created a drop down MLP structure.

    The North Atlantic was an honest mistake, which has now been corrected.
    Aug 14 12:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria's Holding In SAB Is Worth More Than You Think [View article]
    Technically yes, Philip Morris International was spun out of Altria, but Altria only became Altria during 2003, when Philip Morris co's changed its name to Altria group.

    So Philip Morris became Altria, which then spun off its international arm. Philip Morris International was the larger part of the business.

    Apologies, I'm still in the 'Motley Fool' writing style, they like to keep it simple for their readers.
    Aug 6 03:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Brent-WTI Price Differential Continues To Contract But How Are Refiners Reacting? [View article]
    I am glad you found it helpful.

    It'll be interesting to see how the situation plays out. Many OPEC members do need $100 oil but OPEC accounts for less than half of the worlds oil output these days. With so much cheap oil coming out of the US and demand stagnating worldwide, OPEC will have to drastically slash output along with other producers around the world to maintain prices above $100.

    Still, the refiners in the US should keep chucking out huge profits for a long time yet. Am long $NTI, $HFC.
    Jun 6 03:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria's Holding In SAB Is Worth More Than You Think [View article]
    I'm with you on that. If SAB continues to grow as it has done in the past, income from the holding will offset falling cigarette sales. Management should push for SAB to seek growth itself.
    Aug 5 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group Could Receive A Multi-Billion Dollar Payoff As SABMiller Plc Is In Play Once Again [View article]
    I read somewhere that PM/MO has been the greatest investment ever in terms of total returns.
    Sep 15 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Offshore Drillers Will Struggle Over The Next Few Years [View article]
    Phenom1 thanks for your support. Although I will admit I did make a mistake regarding the structure of NADL.
    Aug 14 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil Is Suffering From Falling Returns But Valuations Are Now Attractive [View article]
    Personally, I have no idea, or care - am not attempting forward guidance. I am a value investor, I'm not trying to predict what is going to happen, these co's are trading at multi-decade low valuations and that is appealing. There are many different factors around right now that will affect their future outlook, Syria, China, the Fed, Europe, Brazil and we don't know how this will affect the market.

    However, we do know that currently these stocks are cheap and they have only been this cheap once or twice during the last decade suggesting that their valuations will revert to the mean.

    In conclusion, this article was designed to pinpoint value and why value has occurred.
    Sep 9 12:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick Look At National Oilwell Varco's Finances [View article]
    That is a compounded growth figure.
    Net income 2009: $1470
    Net income 2012: $2490
    Compounded growth rate: 69.38%
    Average yearly growth rate: 17.35%

    Apologies, I did not make that as clear as I should have done.
    Apr 24 03:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can These High-Yielding Stocks Support Their Dividends? [View article]
    I'm worried about PBI's slow growth and falling revenues, which could slowly drag the company down. I would own the stock otherwise.

    LO is a great stock. Their new electronic cigarette is really taking off and could be a game changer for the company.
    Mar 3 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Are The High Yields Of Financial REITs? [View article]
    That is a very good point about the leverage issue.
    Personally I am very interested in these financial REITs so I will do some more research on the issue of leverage. I could potentially try and put together an article on the risk of each REIT based on its level of leverage.
    Feb 28 05:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons To Buy Gold And Other Inflation Protection Now [View article]
    There are thousands of 'alternative investment' houses in London. I am Gold bear but would rather buy it than give my money to any of these places.

    It amazes me how big banks are being persecuted but these little firms are still managing to run quasi ponzi schemes without a hint of regulation.
    Dec 11 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Reports That The Offshore Drilling Market Is Slowing [View article]
    Steve, I'm glad you found the article helpful and really I appreciate your feedback regarding the presentation -- it's something I'm trying to improve upon.
    Sep 11 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Further Will Diamond Offshore Drilling Fall Before Finding Support? [View article]

    I think you've misinterpreted my article. Firstly, the cancellation of the Vanguard contract was a surprise and it has more to do with current trends rather than historical cash flows. If I'm correct the Ocean Vanguard has not been able to find another contractor, which is indicative of the rig market trends, customers don't want older, low spec rigs, the company has 45 offshore rigs, with an average age of 25.7 years, which is worrying.

    Secondly, Ensco, RIG and Rowan, my three examples, all have their own newbuilds slated for delivery, which will push up book value when delivered. By your reasoning they should also trade at a premium to book based on future asset deliveries.
    Sep 9 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Further Will Diamond Offshore Drilling Fall Before Finding Support? [View article]
    Matthew, granted, Diamond does have some leeway when it comes to the book value of its rigs, asset values dropped on average 16% during the financial crisis so the company acquired at a decent price and there may be no write downs. Source:

    I do think that the market has factored in some write downs. However, Diamond is still trading at a premium to book value, which makes no sense, when companies like Rowan, Ensco and Transocean are trading at a 20% discount to book. Rowan, Ensco and Transocean all have arguably better fleets than Diamond. At the very least, I would expect Diamond to trade at book value until the market picks up again.
    Sep 9 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment