Seeking Alpha

Rupert Nicholson

View as an RSS Feed
View Rupert Nicholson's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Netflix's Profitability Is An Illusion [View article]
    Buyout of Netflix is just absurd at anything over $125, the cash flows just don't justify it. EPS has to grow by more than 25% over the next 5 years, plus long term growth of greater than 8% to even get to a fair value of $150. Its utterly rediculous the current momentum wave Netflix is riding.
    Nov 5 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Profitability Is An Illusion [View article]
    Bill just a reminder. You were an ardent bear on Netflix before January. I could show you countless articles you wrote arguing people not to invest in Netflix when it was ~$90 a share. So it is the height of hypocrisy for you to criticize the writer of this article for having the same point of view. Also, I was a bull for Netflix from $65 right up to $350 and I was criticized the whole way through, sometimes by people on this site including you and boris. Now I am short Netflix. I don't necessarily have the same arguments as Boris, but it seems clear to me that the stock is ludicrously overvalued and just riding a wave of momentum. Btw, Icahn might well have already dumped the last 4.5% of his shares. The point is he doesn't need to disclose now. So your whole Icahn argument is mute, as he left himself with less than 5%, most likely so he could withdraw the rest of his position with little problems.
    Nov 5 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Any stock can be bought because it is undervalued based on its intrinsic value. The first paragraph in the comment above, is perfectly relevant but its simply not what you said in the first place. I completely respect your point of view that my bottom out argument could be wrong, I disagree (obviously). What I think is absurd about your original comment is that I wasn't arguing for dividend or EPS growth, I am simply arguing that its intrinsic value is above its current share price. Might I also remind you that I factor in negative EPS growth in my intrinsic value calculation, so I expected EPS to shrink rather than grow. Also, I still believe the dividend yield is of only marginal importance to my argument, it is not remotely relevant to the underlying thesis.
    Nov 3 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Do you have any evidence to support what you just said?
    Nov 1 04:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the comment! Totally agree!
    Nov 1 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Not arguing for an investment for dividend, I attached it as a side note so I don't see that as a relevant comment. Also, I factored in 0% EPS growth when generating my intrinsic value. Not every good investment has to be due to good EPS growth. Look at what happened with Nokia when it was $2.60, it went up to $4.00 before MSFT announced an acquisition deal. Why? Not because it experience a sudden surge in earnings but rather because it had been sold off too much and the price was depressed below its intrinsic value. That is what I am arguing happened with Exelon. If you had read the article you would realized none of your points are remotely relevant.
    Nov 1 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    And if Netflix drops a lot then my thesis stands. So there is absolutely no need to include a buyout paragraph, if the buyout amount will be less than $142 a share. Therefore, a buyout is irrelevant to my analysis. If you think one of them would be interested in buying out Netflix for more, then please present me with the numbers they would be using to value it at. I think it ludicrous to suggest that they would believe earnings would grow in excess of 20%, with a long term growth rate of more than 7%.
    Oct 24 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    And who would be interested in buying out Netflix? Once you supply me with a name and their 'reason' for buying out Netflix, I will look into and get back to you. I see zero companies out there right now that would be remotely interested in buying it at its current valuation, or even with 50% shaved off its current valuation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
    Oct 24 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    I believe a buyout of Netflix is totally unrealistic, but thank you for sharing your point of view. Also, I am more than happy to change my mind if you present some evidence as to why you think a buyout is even plausible.
    Oct 24 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    Thanks for the comment! Yes I'm very comfortable with my short position after icahn dumped his shares. My only worry is the high volatility generated by the announcement. Hopefully the share price will settle down as the day goes on.
    Oct 23 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    Where did you get that from?
    Oct 23 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Dare To Short This Momentum Stock? 25% Downside Coming [View article]
    I'm not talking about just putlocker, I'm talking about streaming illegally in general, of which putlocker is a small part. Also, I've already told you that statistics you get online are not likely to be reliable and give you a good picture of what is going on, due to a natural bias of people saying they are watching shows legally. Also, I have not even mentioned the influence that Amazon prime free viewing is starting to have on college students. Many college students use Amazon Prime for its free shipping, and guess what, it offers free streaming to these people, with a fairly large amount of content. Admittedly, it does have less content than Netflix, but it is free for those with Amazon Prime already.
    Oct 20 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Dare To Short This Momentum Stock? 25% Downside Coming [View article]
    Yes well I can use the same set of statistics and skew it so it favors Netflix or Putlocker. The point is statistics do not always give a good picture of what is going on, especially when it involves streaming illegally. People will not often admit they stream illegally, especially not when asked about it by someone they have just met conducting a survey. They are also not likely to put info onto social networks and the web which shows them illegally streaming. Therefore, I don't doubt that what you have said is true, but it is simply not a proper portrayal of what is going on in reality. I actually experience the world of a college student every day, you don't. I actually have hundreds of friends who are college students, again you don't. Consequently, I would say I'm rather more informed of this from you, as you are getting your information from a secondary or tertiary source, whereas I am the primary source of my info.
    Oct 20 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Dare To Short This Momentum Stock? 25% Downside Coming [View article]
    i believe the earnings are already priced in, plus if the stock goes up more than 20% I am quite comfortable doubling my short position.
    Oct 19 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Dare To Short This Momentum Stock? 25% Downside Coming [View article]
    Tvaddic, I can guarantee you many more college kids are watching these shows on hosting sites like putlocker, where you can stream them, and dont have to wait for a download. I am in college right now, and i would say maybe 95% of my friends use sites such as putlocker rather than netflix.
    Oct 19 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
340 Comments
231 Likes