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Rupert Nicholson  

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  • Be Careful When Buying Into The Oil Price Hype [View article]
    Michael, I understand what you're saying. I'm not saying its wrong. The price of oil might well go up spurred by demand, indeed I account for growing demand in my analysis. The point of the article was only to show a note of caution. I do not believe I present a bear case but rather a case that oil is fairly valued at current prices. I might well be wrong. Oil could be driven higher by speculation. I simply believe that there are many other commodities I would rather invest in first.
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful When Buying Into The Oil Price Hype [View article]
    Michael all I am saying is Bloomberg is the industry standard for reliability in finance. Now you might not believe them but I personally would trust them significantly more than OPEC. Especially after OPECs Secretary General has claimed oil could go as high as $200 a barrel.
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful When Buying Into The Oil Price Hype [View article]
    Michael you are using a biased source of information. Bloomberg is governed by much stricter reporting standards than OPEC yet you seem to trust OPEC more. OPEC has an incentive not to report complete figures, Bloomberg doesn't. Also, Bloomberg gave concrete figures which are easily verifiable by a simple Google search. I really advise you to check the facts.
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful When Buying Into The Oil Price Hype [View article]
    Michael that's not true at all. http://bloom.bg/175gUFu. Also, I'm not short on oil. I gave a range which suggests it is fairly valued around $55. I hold no position in oil currently.
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful When Buying Into The Oil Price Hype [View article]
    Michael. Hedge fund managers have the largest short position they have had for a while so with respect I disagree. The smart investors such as Goldman have all lowered their oil price targets to mid 50s. There are plenty of companies on the other side of those positions and, honestly, I would rather put my money with Goldman than speculators.
    Feb 9, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    Leverage this is the most sensible comment I have seen on this article. It is widely agreed that US oil production becomes unprofitable at $40. Therefore, I expect it to dip below $40 to $35 or maybe $30 before it becomes profitable to speculate. Right now the supply is very saturated. Btw, the suggestion that oil could go to $200 is absurd. Also, the only way it could get back to $100 is through wild speculation. I laughed when I read this article
    Feb 7, 2015. 05:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    There is a humongeous glut of supply in oil right now. This article is unbelievably misguided. The rally is most likely due to speculation as it is certainly not grounded in fact. The oil rigs which have been put aside for now are almost all smaller rigs. The fact that the author predicts a 125% upside is one of the worst prediction I've ever seen. Btw, only at below $40 does oil become an unprofitable venture for the US producers. The glut in supply from new markets such as US (and possibly Canada) is worrying. Also, the author seems to gloss over the huge production market of Venezuela. The government in in serious trouble there are PDSVA's production is at an all time low. However, what happens when that government leaves and private business moves in? In a couple of years or so, this market (largest oil reserves in the world) might well be exploited again just fueling the glut. The only people who have said oil will go back to $100 or maybe even $200 (totally ludicrous) are those who have a vested interest in the price being high.
    Feb 7, 2015. 05:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Profitability Is An Illusion [View article]
    Buyout of Netflix is just absurd at anything over $125, the cash flows just don't justify it. EPS has to grow by more than 25% over the next 5 years, plus long term growth of greater than 8% to even get to a fair value of $150. Its utterly rediculous the current momentum wave Netflix is riding.
    Nov 5, 2013. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Profitability Is An Illusion [View article]
    Bill just a reminder. You were an ardent bear on Netflix before January. I could show you countless articles you wrote arguing people not to invest in Netflix when it was ~$90 a share. So it is the height of hypocrisy for you to criticize the writer of this article for having the same point of view. Also, I was a bull for Netflix from $65 right up to $350 and I was criticized the whole way through, sometimes by people on this site including you and boris. Now I am short Netflix. I don't necessarily have the same arguments as Boris, but it seems clear to me that the stock is ludicrously overvalued and just riding a wave of momentum. Btw, Icahn might well have already dumped the last 4.5% of his shares. The point is he doesn't need to disclose now. So your whole Icahn argument is mute, as he left himself with less than 5%, most likely so he could withdraw the rest of his position with little problems.
    Nov 5, 2013. 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Any stock can be bought because it is undervalued based on its intrinsic value. The first paragraph in the comment above, is perfectly relevant but its simply not what you said in the first place. I completely respect your point of view that my bottom out argument could be wrong, I disagree (obviously). What I think is absurd about your original comment is that I wasn't arguing for dividend or EPS growth, I am simply arguing that its intrinsic value is above its current share price. Might I also remind you that I factor in negative EPS growth in my intrinsic value calculation, so I expected EPS to shrink rather than grow. Also, I still believe the dividend yield is of only marginal importance to my argument, it is not remotely relevant to the underlying thesis.
    Nov 3, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Do you have any evidence to support what you just said?
    Nov 1, 2013. 04:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the comment! Totally agree!
    Nov 1, 2013. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Corp.: A Limited Risk Investment With 40% Upside [View article]
    Not arguing for an investment for dividend, I attached it as a side note so I don't see that as a relevant comment. Also, I factored in 0% EPS growth when generating my intrinsic value. Not every good investment has to be due to good EPS growth. Look at what happened with Nokia when it was $2.60, it went up to $4.00 before MSFT announced an acquisition deal. Why? Not because it experience a sudden surge in earnings but rather because it had been sold off too much and the price was depressed below its intrinsic value. That is what I am arguing happened with Exelon. If you had read the article you would realized none of your points are remotely relevant.
    Nov 1, 2013. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    And if Netflix drops a lot then my thesis stands. So there is absolutely no need to include a buyout paragraph, if the buyout amount will be less than $142 a share. Therefore, a buyout is irrelevant to my analysis. If you think one of them would be interested in buying out Netflix for more, then please present me with the numbers they would be using to value it at. I think it ludicrous to suggest that they would believe earnings would grow in excess of 20%, with a long term growth rate of more than 7%.
    Oct 24, 2013. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Netflix's Share Inflation With A Potential 55% Short Sell Margin Play [View article]
    And who would be interested in buying out Netflix? Once you supply me with a name and their 'reason' for buying out Netflix, I will look into and get back to you. I see zero companies out there right now that would be remotely interested in buying it at its current valuation, or even with 50% shaved off its current valuation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
    Oct 24, 2013. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
347 Comments
242 Likes