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Russ Fischer  

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  • Intel/Micron Joint Venture Might Not Last After 2018 [View article]
    JSG,

    Why would you think that Intel doesn't want to be in the memory business....hell they ARE in the memory business with the highest level of SSDs.

    Intel was driven from the DRAM business on quality. The Japanese built at such higher quality that American equipment companies couldn't afford Intel parts at...free. Yes, the same Japanese companies that made up Elpida drove Intel and others out of the memory business based on quality.
    The common wisdom is that the Japanese were dumping memory...not true, they would only meet the prices of Intel and others to sell inferior parts based on price.
    This and the automotive quality debacle of the 1975 automotive seat belt interlock got the Americans to be serious about quality.
    Obviously Intel would like to be in the memory business with some kind of gotcha...like the IMFT 3D NAND....or PCM to stuff between system memory and mass storage.
    Remember, Intel talks about "non-volatile memory", not necessarily NAND or 3D NAND...there is non-volatile RAM up their sleeve somewhere.

    I believe that Intel will sell memory in-package with CPUs and in storage systems and Micron will sell in components and memory systems. The overlap will come in SSDs.
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel/Micron Joint Venture Might Not Last After 2018 [View article]
    jaeger,

    3D NAND won't be significant in 2015....it better be in 2016!

    We can't possibly know the whole truth about capacity for 3D NAND.....they are not going to tell anyone the exact truth...for all we know the 40KWS of DRAM converted to NAND is really for 3D NAND or at least prepped for it.
    Management just said that demand for 3D will exceed supply...they must be taking steps to ramp 3D production faster in 2016.
    When customers see the performance of the 3D parts they won't want 2D parts from anyone.
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel/Micron Joint Venture Might Not Last After 2018 [View article]
    Sorry Alex, I don't get it. I'm thinking that Intel and Micron combine.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Still Shut Out Of Mobile [View article]
    Apple guys never like Intel.
    Jun 19, 2015. 05:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Vs. Taiwan Semi - It's The Client, Stupid [View article]
    He seems to like the term "organizational inertia" a lot, but content is very weak. Too many errors to cover in a comment.
    Jun 19, 2015. 05:03 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Becomes An ARM Mobile Device Maker [View article]
    not all articles are homeruns.
    Jun 18, 2015. 11:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1BiTieA

    This is three years old, but it shows why SRAM, when it is over 50% of the area of digital chips has to go. Given the cell size of PCM or STT, all cache and most system memory could go on chip....Hell, it could make the SSD as well. Something will pop up as the holy grail of memory....fast, small, low power, and non-volatile and a single technology.
    Given that two very senior VPs at Intel have been virtually peeing in their pants for the past two years about non-volatile memory (not 3D NAND, just NVM)during the investor meeting, this is something that must occupy a great deal of thinking at Intel.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:24 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    Alas, I am in shares this time. Call options and LEAPS are simply too expensive. No more dime LEAPs. Writing weekly calls until I lose the shares, then writing weekly puts until I get the shares.....kinda different.

    I took a lot of abuse over getting out last year, but it was the right thing to do.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:09 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Of NAND: SanDisk's Uncertain Crown [View article]
    Bill,
    There were 3D NAND SSDs running at the Intel investor conference last November. The purpose of those is to get some early stuff in customers hand for qualification. Also, from personal experience, I can tell you that it is shocking how fast companies can move on qualification when it is in their interest, which it would be in this case.
    I suspect that Intel has customers waiting to accept shipments of the 3D NAND SSDs.

    I think you have this summed up quite well.

    SanDisk loses on eMCP because of lack of DRAM. They will be weak on SSDs for the same reason.

    Hynix will be weak on eMCP and SSD due to a weak position on 3D NAND.

    Right now it looks like the future NAND business is an IMFT/Samsung duopoly, with some evidence that Samsung is having problems on data retention.

    I think there is a $65 billion opportunity, or most of it, ready to go to Intel/Micron over the next five years. If you have cost, performance, and quality leadership there are no speed bumps to market domination.
    Jun 17, 2015. 10:51 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    30-35% corrections are common on stocks that have risen hundreds of percent. Micron high is 6x its 2013 low. It will turn around soon and make new highs that will make the analysts look like monkeys once AGAIN. the NAND and DRAM situation is in much better shape than when I bailed a year ago.
    There is still 7-8 million wafers per year of capacity at about $2500 revenue per wafer. $17.5-20 billion in revenue when all the update work is done.
    I think $4/share in 2016 is a slam dunk.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:50 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Magic Of FPGAs [View article]
    ote,

    Contrary to what some think, I feel the Intel acquisition of Altera damn near kills Xilinx. Now Altera will ALWAYS have superior density and cost. I think customers will swarm to Altera/Intel just to see how performance they can get from the very best processes.

    I have mixed emotions because I represented Xilinx from the very beginning and have one of their IPO coffee cups. Great tough company....and now I think they are screwed.

    I can't come up with any good reason for any company to buy Xilinx at any price.
    Jun 14, 2015. 11:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Magic Of FPGAs [View article]
    ote,

    You don't really think that do you?
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    pk,

    That conversion from Power to x96 took six years and nobody had a clue. Amazing.
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Buys Micron? [View article]
    PC DRAM spot continues to fall. Mark Adams said that PC DRAM is only 15% of the Micron business…I think that is what caused the “echo chamber” for us last qtr. NAND spot has actually been increasing. I’ve been writing covered calls and writing naked puts…I will get some shares @ 27 assigned on Friday, unless we get a recovery.

    Soon (July?) there will be some Micron 3D NAND parts in the wild. I have a hunch that when those parts get tested for endurance (orders of magnitude better) and related data retention (as good as magnetic storage), all 2D NAND will be viewed as junk overnight.

    The big question will be how fast Intel/Micron can bring on more capacity and how soon they can get to 48 layer and the X-Y shrink to 3x nm…..for overall 3 times the bits per wafer of today. Everyone (including I/M) needs the conversion from HDD to SSD to take 3+ years. I think there is some probability that demand goes immediate, which would drive prices off the chart. Even worse (better) if I/M technology proves significantly more desirable over other suppliers.

    I’m not sure that the world understands the magnitude of the SSD thing. Experts seem to be discussing the lack of the “Next Big Thing”, when it is staring them in the face. $65 billion is ~20% of the total semiconductor business. $65 billion is like finding a 1.2 times Intel over a few years, 1.5+ times Samsung. $65 billion is more than the semiconductor content of the PC business or the smartphone business. If that doesn’t constitute the next big thing, I need to be re-calibrated.

    Russ
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:09 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Semiconductor Stocks Overpriced? [View article]
    PC DRAM spot continues to fall. Mark Adams said that PC DRAM is only 15% of the Micron business…I think that is what caused the “echo chamber” for us last qtr. NAND spot has actually been increasing. I’ve been writing covered calls and writing naked puts…I will get some shares @ 27 assigned on Friday, unless we get a recovery. Soo, I'll be writing more covered calls.

    Soon (July?) there will be some Micron 3D NAND parts in the wild. I have a hunch that when those parts get tested for endurance (orders of magnitude better) and related data retention (as good as magnetic storage), all 2D NAND will be viewed as junk overnight.

    The big question will be how fast Intel/Micron can bring on more capacity and how soon they can get to 48 layer and the X-Y shrink to 3x nm…..for overall 3 times the bits per wafer of today. Everyone (including I/M) needs the conversion from HDD to SSD to take 3+ years. I think there is some probability that demand goes immediate, which would drive prices off the chart. Even worse (better) if I/M technology proves significantly more desirable over other suppliers.

    I’m not sure that the world understand the magnitude of the SSD thing. Experts seem to be discussing the lack of the “Next Big Thing”, when it is staring them in the face. $65 billion is ~20% of the total semiconductor business. $65 billion is like finding a 1.2 times Intel over a few years, 1.5+ times Samsung. $65 billion is more than the semiconductor content of the PC business or the smartphone business. If that doesn’t constitute the next big thing, I need to be re-calibrated.

    Russ
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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