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Russ Fischer

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  • Intel drops after Intersil reports seeing high PC chip inventories [View news story]

    The regulator business for CPUs was about $5 per system. That's about $1.5 billion worth of regulators and power control that went poof. In the analog world $1.5 billion is a lot of business. You would sure think that these folks would have seen this coming with a great deal of clarity. However, It has been my experience that when a large piece of business goes to zero, particularly when distribution is involved, people (suppliers) go into denial. Also, when the business is much smaller, a relatively small shift in suppliers is magnified. Maybe Intersil lost some business to Maxim.

    This snapshot would suggest that PC build rates are just fine.

    The Intersil CEO said that half of the expected q4 shortfall would be caused by "lower PC builds". If they don't have any PC business, the builds could go to zero and not affect Intersil. I guess the conclusion is that whatever Intersil is/was supplying is going away....could have lost a design at one of the biggies.

    There's another way to look at this....Computing to Intersil is 22% of $142 million for the quarter. There was somewhere near 75 million PCs built, give or take. So, Intersil gets a whopping $.42 per box.

    I think the Intersil thing is another fire drill. Of the segments to blame a miss on computing generates less concern on the part of analysts....sure screwed Intel for a day.
    Oct 31 12:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel drops after Intersil reports seeing high PC chip inventories [View news story]
    Does anyone remember the FIVR? Fully Intergrated Voltage Regulator?
    Before Haswell there were third party voltage regulators all around the PC CPU chips.
    Haswell sucked all that on-chip.
    year ago we were talking about which analog guys were going to get screwed by this move....apparently it was Intersil.

    This is eve worse that the BS from Microchip.

    I bought a bunch of Nov28 35 calls today.
    Oct 30 08:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    Looks like Intel and smartphones are now in the US.

    This probably isn't frightening Apple or Samsung, but for $200 I might get one just for an extra phone number. No contract.
    Oct 29 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip Technology: CEO Flubs A Warning Announcement [View article]
    There used to be a definable semiconductor cycle....3 years give or take from peak to peak. That SEEMS to have changed due to a much broader application base and the move to the fabless business model.

    When everyone had their own fab the expansion could, and did, get out of control and caused gluts with regularity. Now the few dominant foundries are able to do the capacity planning for the entire industry. Customers can turn off orders with no or few consequences. The foundries can and do shutter capacity until demand returns. If anything MIGHT be an early indicator, maybe the equipment guys. They were always more sensitive to the cycles in the early days and maybe some of that remains.

    So predicting a cycle that no longer exists seems a little goofy. As a commenter earlier said, Microchip did have a bid in on a company that was turned down and maybe the CEO comments were intended to persuade that company to take another look. I could imagine a CEO doing that.

    Interesting that investors are still hyper sensitive to the boom and bust "cycle".
    Oct 26 04:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of The iPad? [View article]
    Good article.
    Apple could - maybe - breathe some life back into the iPad with an OSX version, but that would take an Intel core M part, which isn't the worst idea in the world.
    Oct 23 02:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Powering A Portfolio With High-Yielding Duke Energy [View article]
    Sorry, my value model puts a fair price on DUK of less than $60/share.

    This model isn't perfect, in the case of DUK it would have made me NOT participate in a significant rise in share price. Since I am not a divendend guy, that is no problem. Often, the market gets irrational, which might be the case on DUK. My value model keeps me away from irrational valuation...even if it cost me gains that make no sense.

    When I re-fitted my home with LED lights at 10-20% of the power consumption of incandescents, I couldn't help wondering what this will do to the utilities. I guess it will make them shrink. This is not the nightmare it might be for other companies since the regulators of utilities guarantee a ROI of some number around 10-15% unless the management is really stupid.

    Moving from hot wires to cool LEDs is great for nearly everyone except for the electric utilities and coal companies....but I guess coal companies have been going up......and natural gas is cheap....go figure??? In any case, I will simply watch the disruptive change taking place. no long, no short, just watch.
    Oct 23 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]

    I don't see any great values in the semiconductor equipment companies. AMAT AMSL seem fully priced. We always used to say that when the semiconductor companies went flat, the equipment guys went to zero. Too unpredictable for me.
    Oct 23 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Believe Wal-Mart To Be Undervalued Right Now [View article]
    Walmart is now growing at a slower rate than the economy as a whole. Due to that, I come up with a fair value of ~$60. that could change if growth picks up even a couple of points.
    It gets harder and harder to grow this size company. there are better plays right now.
    Oct 22 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]

    For the most part higher levels of integration are better, cheaper, etc., but not always.
    If yield takes a hit by trying to pound a square peg into a round hole, which might be the case with AP+LTE, Then two chips packaged together might be the right answer. A discrete LTE will always have a home in tablets, since not all of them will be bolted up to he cellular network. LTE in a PC will not be universal either.
    Qualification of the LTE by carriers is another issue. A discrete part can be qualified once. An integrated part might have to be re-qualified for any change to the SoC.
    Integrated AP+LTE seems like the right answer for smartphones, even if it cost more than two parts.
    Oct 21 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    What does mobile (smartphone) look like with non-volatile embedded RAM and digital radio?

    Those losses can't and won't get any worse, so what's left? Increasing earnings due to sharply lower losses. Wild ass success in the smartphone business would never produce the increase in earnings/share that reducing the losses will and the reduction in losses is a certainty.
    Oct 21 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    Broke on the first race, so we sat around the pool and hot tub. Lake Havasu City is the home of excess testosterone, race gas , and one ton diesel kinda people! heat's a problem for Mn guys.
    Oct 21 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Ebola Fears Are Likely To Grow [View article]
    I read "The Hot Zone" about 15 years ago and have been waiting for this discussion ever since.
    Ebola is so virulent that to some degree it I self far.... apparently it "burns" a hole in a population and is unable to spread further....for a while....until someone eats another fruit bat.

    Bad, bad stuff.

    No vaccine or anti-virals's East one has cared! Now we will care!

    Some of the literature talks about near term solutions in terms of vaccines and anti-viral treatments.
    Oct 21 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    The leakage in Silicon Valley used to be legendary. Now, not so much. These guys can keep a secret if they want to. I never heard a peep about TriGate until it happened. I heard lots about research, but to turn an aircraft carrier like Intel into the wind on a fundamentally different transistor....and not a peep in advance.....I can't keep a secret on a birthday present let alone seal the lips of 100,000 employees.
    Nobody knew that Apple was dropping the Power PC chip....that project took big teams from both Intel and Apple...not a peep, until they pulled the trigger.
    Oct 20 08:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]

    yup, I knew that, but the mechanics of doing it would be interesting to understand. Like are the share accumulated throughout the day? Are the Market Makers shorting the shares to deliver to the buyers? Are Market Maker working out of inventory? Do they then replenish?
    How and where they thumb up the shares is what I don't understand.
    Oct 20 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Growth Strategy [View article]
    We have had a big correction and Intel has participated in that correction.
    I found it interesting how many time analyst questions were deferred to the Investor Meeting of November 20.

    Earnings and information drive stock prices. We just had earnings and I thought there were good. Don't expect any stock price moving information until a day or two before the investor meeting.

    That means that Intel will be subject to manipulation to the downside by players who are secure in the knowledge that nothing of significance will be announced by Intel until the investor meeting. This isn't illegal, it is just Wall Street being Wall Street.

    I would not be surprised to see a trend down during that time.

    I will be buying on weakness from now to Nov 20 and I would expect Intel to be buying as well, so maybe the manipulation will be muted.

    One way to see what is happening is to get on level II and turn on the time and sales function. For the past three months there have been huge trades right at 16:00:00 that appear in the total volume of trading, but do not appear in afterhours trading. There is game playing going on that I don't understand. A significant percentage of Intel daily trading is taking place from the close to ten minutes after the close consistently. The volumes are much more than could be explained by Intel's buyback alone.

    When the players get their fill of Intel shares we sill likely see a moved to $40 pretty quickly, a few months of games and another move to $50.

    I think Jan 2016 40s are the play. Buy them now and sell them about Oct of 2015.

    Today the closing trade at exactly 16:00:00 was 1.76 million shares. This is an edit at 16:05.
    Oct 20 03:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment