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  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Phred and seeker,

    it was a stock deal. $1.27 billion in stock. Somewhere around 150 million shares. About 70 million shares to Intel (45%).
    I wonder if they still have those shares?
    My understanding was that if they "right sized" Numonyx, it turned into a significant cash generator and Micron needed that at the time.

    http://ubm.io/Rmet9P
    Apr 15 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Phred,

    you know that I respect your work to the point of being your pull-toy in the area of financial analysis.
    I've been up to my neck in some other issues lately so I can't research HOW Intel or Apple, for that matter, does their investing and how confidential it might be.....just have time to throw a couple firecrackers around.
    I did go over the individuals who make up the BOD of Micron and didn't find any empty suits, so just perhaps something that looks bad is part of a larger more positive scheme.
    Jackson will trot out Occam's razor which would dictate that "dumb" is the simplest and, therefore, the most likely answer. I just have a tough time with that.
    Everything else aside, your timeline is interesting. It would be interesting to look at the total Intel/Micron timeline....I think the formation of IMFT and/or IMFS dates back to 2006.
    Apr 15 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Phred and RSA,

    You guys know that I have a vivid imagination.

    What if Intel was the buyer of the 2043G? What if they held them un-hedged? What if the cash actually wound up back at Intel in exchange for a Micron buy-in on an un-used fab for IMFT to build NVM for use in SSDs?

    Intel would score on the Micron stock as payoff for the Elpida enabling "trick" they did in 2012. Micron would be able to expand on a moments notice as SSDs begin the long steep ramp that is inevitable. No one else has extra fabs in their pocket except Intel. Micron would score on the ability to grow to $22billion+ on about a billion or two investment.

    Intel has a VC/investment arm that could have bought the converts on the QT.

    Just maybe Micron management is looking over the hill and around the corner at the next "deal".

    Really when you take a look, the BOD doesn't look like they just fell off a turnip truck....including the recently appointed Warren East, formerly CEO of ARM Holdings.
    http://bit.ly/14NLhhx

    Ron Foster seems to have some pretty strong credentials himself.

    I really appreciated the lesson on converts, but maybe you are selling these guys short. Maybe they know exactly what they are doing.

    Back in 2012 no one patted Micron on the back for buying IMFT assets for $2-4 billion less that they would have appraised at.

    Worked correctly, Micron (or IMFT) could wind up the largest memory/SSD company in the world, even eclipsing Samsung.....and the fact is that if they don't do that, Samsung will eventually crush Micron.
    Apr 14 03:21 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    pb,
    In order to make out Intel couldn't short the shares, and that seems to be borne out by the fact that (I think I read) only about 2/3 of the convert holders are actually shorting the share. Seems like there are more convertible share than short open interest....is that right Phred?

    A stealth Payoff?
    Apr 14 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Phred,

    That 2043 tranche seems so ridiculous that I wonder if Intel could be the buyer with the purpose being to pay back some of the "phantom transfer" of capital that Intel apparently did in the early stage of the Elpida play.

    If true, I guess corporate transparency just flew out the window. Knowing who bought those converts might bring the whole deal into better focus.

    You need to take a vacation after putting that article together:)

    We all know more about desperate financing, which is another big and heavy duty tool to put into the DD toolbox.
    Apr 14 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Jaret,
    To the extent that the convert holders did short the equivalent shares, the dilution is already effective. Those shorted shares are just as real as any other shares.
    Micron had to get money from a shylock in the beginning and the vig (in hindsight) was quite high.
    It appears that the latest bonds were totally unnecessary.

    Phred's article is a wonderful example of financial forensics.

    I think it would be interesting to see what an unpredictable, (not ongoing) dividend would do to the bond holders willingness to allow early redemption.

    If the company bought in 100 million shares ($2.2 billion), it would offset the dilutive effect of the converts so would we really care about what happened to them?

    I doubt the last chapter of the convert issue is known. What we DO know is the moves of Micron over the past two years has been an overall success on an unusual magnitude.
    Apr 14 09:01 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PC shipments fall less than expected; IDC, Gartner differ on how much [View news story]
    Papa,
    I'm listening just fine. Apparently I can hear and see things that you can't.
    Apr 10 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: What If PC Units Did A U-Turn In The First Quarter? [View article]
    I know that I am in the extreme minority, But I will believe that Apple has ;ut their A chip business with TSMC when I see it proved.

    The 7260 LTE chip is shipping FINALLY. It's 28nm for now, but that is OK.
    there is a reason for that that I will do an article about.

    Intel is at the bottom in mobile, but now ARMED TO THE TEETH, chips that can run all major OSs is nothing to sneeze at.

    Today will be an indicator....if the concern about the declining PC business can be parked, then the rest of the of the Intel opportunities begin to look really good.
    Apr 10 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PC shipments fall less than expected; IDC, Gartner differ on how much [View news story]
    These guys always have the numbers NOT in Intel's favor. I think we can expect the Intel sales and earnings numbers at least at the high end of guidance on Apr 15th.....what an awful day to report earnings:)
    Apr 9 11:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: What If PC Units Did A U-Turn In The First Quarter? [View article]
    TakeFive,

    Yes, you're right. It's a Chinese new year thing. March is always up compared to Feb.
    So, we are left with the disconnect of HP being up 6% YoY on units for their 4th qtr which includes Jan. Yet they lost market share. Total 4th qtr 2013 PC were down. Jan mist have been big.
    I've also read that the PC supply chain has been surprisingly active. It's worth a little bet....8000 contracts of Jul 30 calls. I might have a dime in them.
    Apr 9 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flawless Execution Could Propel Intel Stock Higher [View article]
    David,
    You're right. Apparently with Chinese new year a drop in Feb is followed by a pop in March.
    Sorry for the fire drill.
    Still, the numbers from HP are encouraging for a bit of a U-turn.
    Apr 9 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flawless Execution Could Propel Intel Stock Higher [View article]
    Michael,

    Flat??
    http://bit.ly/1lOTbOG

    Up 25% in March?? I can't get my head around that.
    Apr 8 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: What If PC Units Did A U-Turn In The First Quarter? [View article]
    How we figure this?

    http://bit.ly/1lOTbOG

    note books up 25% in March???
    Apr 8 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flawless Execution Could Propel Intel Stock Higher [View article]
    Michael,
    Good article.
    tomorrow or the next day we will get information on PC sales for the 1st qtr. that information is probably already out to the Gartner paying customers, hence the strength of the past few days. 55 million shares today, 24 million over average and up 1.6%, that's pretty strong.
    How can HP report PCs up 6% in units and be down 1% in market share and PCs still in decline.....doesn't add up....what would the stock do if PC units were up 7-8% YoY.
    Michael, Intel doesn't even have to execute perfectly, it is such a galactic scale cash generator that they can even screw up some as long as they make progress.
    Apr 8 05:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Earnings: The Next Day [View article]
    mathman,

    I was VP of Sales for a company at the end of my career. The company had another VP who repeated ad nauseam, "Knowledge is Power", and then he made sure that none of his knowledge was shared. the company suffered greatly since this individual was in a strategic position. Consequently many people behaved in an unnecessarily secret way.

    I began repeating a modification, "Knowledge shared is knowledge multiplied." People bought in. We grew that company from $200 million to $1.6 Billion in six years.

    I am a long way from knowing everything I would like to know about the semiconductor business, but these article serve as a startng point for the commentary and debate that has lead to SA-spawned investment results actually beating the smartest of the smart on Wall Street.

    Studies have shown that, when discussed and debated openly, a majority opinion produces remarkably sound decisions in most cases.

    As for me, I have met many wonderful and bright people through my articles, and many of them have made life changing amounts of money on a few of the suggestions presented here.

    So, openness and intelligent debate does work.

    Russ
    Apr 7 10:32 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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