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Russ Fischer

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  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    Robert (big spender),

    I just submitted an Intel article, I think the PC biz did a U-turn in the first qtr.

    BTW, I'm a simple guy McDonalds is just fine, White Castle would be better:)
    Apr 3 12:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Wall Street Analyst Schizophrenia [View article]
    Phonecian,
    I think he has something there as an extreme outlier. Memory in the early days was a third of the semiconductor market. It could be a third again ($100 billion+) plus the $60 billion in NAND to replace a great deal of rotating memory.
    Micron could be ~30% of that or $48 billion...at that level they would earn 25% after taxes or $12/share.....maybe $17/share if they buy a bunch of stock in.
    The thinking is not complete insanity.
    Apr 3 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    a1,

    You have to realize that I am playing options exclusively. the fisrt play was 100% out of the money....people thought I had lost it. Now we are in that "last doubling" phase. I want to play short term, event driven situations with Micron. If I did stocks I would simply stay in it until $50....and then take another look.

    Hey I'm in April calls, I better be out a week or two after earnings:)

    I have to see what is coming up between earnings reports, I might be in and out a few times....such is the life of an options player.

    I am into Intel up to my eyeballs.
    Apr 3 08:56 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    vet,
    I like numbers 1 and 2 curious about 3:)

    I think of Elpida not as some strange name that means nothing, but as Hitachi, NEC, and Mitsubishi. These guys were some ass-kickin' technical machines. The didn't get hurt because they were dumb, they got hurt because the success of Japan cause the Yen to get strong and they got hurt because other countries were give DRAM away. Nothing to do with technology and smart people....they are still there.
    Apr 3 08:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    pipar,

    The stock WILL go down hard 10 to 20%, maybe multiple times. It just did. And it will recover. It's the last doubling thing. Based on earnings and top line growth the stock is worth $40-50, Question is can you handle the stress. If not, go buy some dividends.
    The stress-free gains are in the rear view mirror.
    Apr 3 08:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Wall Street Analyst Schizophrenia [View article]
    Phred,
    Good piece.
    Remember, Einhorn is saying $3.50 for 2014 and $4.00 for 2015.
    And there is that little matter of 112million share short interest....
    Just a hunch, but I think we are going to see the stock price explode...not "move up nicely", but explode.
    Apr 2 10:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Wall Street Analyst Schizophrenia [View article]
    Wilson,
    That's really cool. So he really is only of value if you run his recommendations thorough an inverter?
    Apr 2 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    Geez Nate,
    I don't know whether to get leaky or get a big head:)
    Apr 2 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    rob,

    Piper doesn't think so.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 2 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    Thanks Phred, you 'ol bandit:)
    Apr 2 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    Tradestar,

    I find technical analysis to be voodoo and completely useless for my purposes.

    That being said, the sheer number of believers can make technical analysis something of self fulfilling prophecy.

    About the option Max Pain Theory. It seems like it should make some sense, but only some. Chasing options around by trading the underlying can be very costly. Most option dealers have less costly ways of hedging their positions.

    Now the short open interest....THERE is something we should all be interested in. 120 million share short interest. those chumps better be ready to grab their ankles!
    What if, just what if Micron does the $1+ per share and guides to a developing NAND shortage in the 2nd half on top of a DRAM shortage.....what if?....I'll tell you what happens...The stock gaps up $5 the next morning and the short covering will drive it another $5 on Friday.

    I've seen it happen at least three times in my investing...errr gambling career.
    Apr 1 08:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    Jaret,

    All of Micron NAND and NOR originated as an Intel business. IR confirmed that Micron pays no flash royalties to SanDisk.
    Apr 1 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    SS,

    Somebody is paying SanDisk about $100 million per quarter in royalties and it is NOT Micron...
    Apr 1 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    So this is why Micron doesn’t pay royalties to SanDisk on NAND memory. The Intel SanDisk patent cross license went with the Intel flash division on the sale to Micron.
    Micron doesn’t pay and, of course, Toshiba and SanDisk don’t pay on their own business. That means that Samsung and Hynix pay royalties to SanDisk on NAND. A rough estimate is about 3-4% of sales. Anyone have a more precise number?

    Again, Micron comes out on top. SanDisk is the weaker player due to NAND only format, Samsung and Hynix are at a 3-4% disadvantage, and Micron pay no royalty and fields a complete line of memory.
    In my opinion Micron has a technology advantage over all players due to their 16nm HKMG process which comes from Intel.

    http://bit.ly/1e9jE1t
    Apr 1 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    seeker,

    I've got an idea for one I hope to get in before earnings.
    CS has a good report.
    Apr 1 09:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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