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  • What Is The Fed Doing? I Love Ben Bernanke [View article]
    "Could you please tell me what the refi rate for Joe's mortgage was prior to the initiation of QE3? Or, to phrase it another way, how much did QE3 actually lower mortgage rates? Also, seeing as Ben is currently enforcing negative real rates (i.e., inflation is running at 2% vs. Ben's ZIRP), what will happen to the value of Joe Blow's house when rates normalize (the market won't accept negative real rates in perpetuity) and Joe Blow then has to find a buyer in an era of "non-artificially low" mortgage rates?"

    Since the program is just beginning, I don't think we have seen the full effects on interest rates. The point here is that I think the Fed is going after the interest revenue as much as pushing interest rates around. In higher interest rates, I suspect the value of Joe's house goes down if he wants to sell it, but anything he buys will be down as well.

    "When interest rates normalize and the Fed is still holding this long-term paper, do you believe that the Fed will still be showing "profits" on debt it bought at a time of ZIRP? If not, might you want to consider discussing the Fed's future losses?"

    The Fed doesn't have to sell the MBS, they simply keep collecting interest. If Joe sells, the Fed gets paid in full and buys another MBS, at the now higher interest rate, or simply extinguishes the money created for the mortgage. Shouldn't be any future losses for the Fed.

    "Finally, do you believe that the Fed's perpetual money-printing might raise the rate of inflation while Joe Blow-- whose job is exportable-- might have no "pricing power" to demand a raise for himself? If so, what do you think this policy will do for Joe's quality of life as well as the quality of life for Joe's retired parents and his neighbors who happen to rent their homes, and do you think it may even make it difficult at some point for Joe to make his mortgage payments after paying for food, clothes and gasoline?"

    Printing Money.....When the mortgages are paid off, what do you call that? Unprinting money?
    What will cause inflation is the unfunded prosecution of two wars and an unfunded prescription drug bill. The Fed can't (and shouldn't) pull the economic wagon by itself. Congress' approval rating is 9%...9 goddamn percent!!! I'd rather have drug addicts in congress, they would be unconscious enough of the time to not do much harm. I will automatically "unvote" for any candidate who has signed the Grover Norquist no-new-tax pledge.
    Yes, retirees who happen to own MBS through a REIT or some other vehicle will get hurt, but a friend of mine claims to be drawing 8% on some REITs. It they decline, they will decline slowly enough for the investor to get out (presumably with a capital gain) and perhaps take on more risk in the equity markets....equities certainly seem underpriced.
    The world isn't perfect, but the economy IS slowly getting better, the Fed is doing some incredibly ballzy things, We are headed for energy independence (no thanks to anyone in Washington). The US has done the remarkable job of balancing labor demand with labor supply within 4-5% for decades. We now find automation, outsourcing, etc. has caused the imbalance to grow to 8-9%. It isn't fun if you are in the 8-9%, but 91-92% of our people have jobs of some sort. The underground economy is flourishing as it always does in slow economies. Demographic trends will correct the unemployment problem with a vengeance in the near future. I wouldn't worry about Joe losing his pricing power.

    I have to get that MENSA thing out of my profile, I get a lot of turdballs whizzing by my head for that:)

    I just think this unprecedented action by the Fed is very interesting. And to me it is even more interesting since I actually predicted the Fed buying mortgages as a funding source (we can't possibly tax our way out of the hole we're in) before they ever bought the first MBS. I was watching CNBC when they announced the first MBS buy....I nearly soiled myself!
    Oct 27 11:05 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining Intel's Guerilla Approach To The Smartphone Sector [View article]
    Ashraf,
    That was a very good piece.

    It is almost always missed that the mobile world had pretty much no choice but to use ARM in the mobile SoCs (MIPS wasn't a choice due to the power issue), until now. Intel was busy with the server end of the business and would not have licensed x86 to QCOM, NVDA, or anyone for that matter. Intel would, however, offer a CUSTOM x86 based chip to end customers such as Apple or even build the Apple design as a custom chip.
    Kind of neat that Intel is in the position of offering a complete reference design, presumably at no royalty to these second and third tier players. That is a subtle spear through the heart of the ARMH business model.
    Supplying designs to the service providers just might be the end point for the smartphone business anyway. I'm sure that AT&T and Verizon don't like to to subsidize Apple and Samsung at $400/unit when they can build their own phone for ~$150 cost today and ~$100 cost fairly soon. Then the $200 price charged the user looks like a good deal.
    The Smartphone Manufacturer/Service Provider subsidized/two year contract business model is beginning to look quite fragile and will get more fragile as features and infrastruture levels out. Perhaps the app business also goes to the service providers. Perhaps the advertising business ultimately goes to the service providers.
    Predicting the ultimate winners in the mobile business is a little tricky, but I would make a large wager that the semiconductor winner for smartphone-on-a-chip products will be Intel....and at a very high margin.
    Aug 23 09:31 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Proving The Fight Is Far From Over [View article]
    Maybe this will help you make up your mind:


    Intel Investment Thesis


    Manufacturing Capacity

    In the 2010 fourth quarter earnings conference call, Intel management discussed a process shrink from 32nm to 22nm. They also mentioned that they have three primary fabrication centers. With a shrink to 22nm those three facilities could be reduced to two and have the same chip output. Surprisingly, the CEO announced that Intel would be going to a four fab model. This move effectively doubles the number of chips the company could produce relative to 32nm.
    What is the added capacity to be used for?

    From Paul Otellini:
    “As we approach our 22-nanometer transition, we are increasing our investments in manufacturing to capture what we believe is a significant opportunity for growth. Stacy will walk you through more details in just in a moment, but in short the market opportunities for our 22-nanometer products are outstanding. As a result, we are growing from the model of three high volume leading-edge manufacturing fabs to four

    Our 22-nanometer process will be the foundation for growing PC and server segments, as well as a broad family of Atom-based SoCs, serving smartphones, tablets, smart TVs, and other embedded devices.”

    Technology

    With the move to 22nm, Intel has grown the lead over the best in class competition to as much as two generations of manufacturing technology. This 22nm technology will also feature TriGate transistors that will increase the performance of the transistors while reducing power consumed dramatically. Some recent information indicates a reduction of 95% in quiescent power consumption when compared to 32nm planar transistors.

    Ultrabook

    Intel is promoting a notebook format called the “Ultrabook”. This product is a thin packaging format similar to the MacBookAir. Intel is subsidizing tooling and supply chain establishment for PC manufacturers to the extent of $300 million. The Ultrabook, in most cases, will be too thin to use a hard disc drive, so flash based solid state drives should have huge growth as this plays out over the next 2-3 years. The boot time for an Ultrabook with a SSD will be seconds, the performance will be much higher relative to a HDD PC and it will be “always connected” even when in sleep mode. The elimination of a HDD and the low power level of the new 22nm TriGate Intel processors will extend battery life substantially.
    Intel makes Solid State Drives. The Intel/Micron partnership has produced the world’s first 128Gb flash chip in the Micron/Intel joint venture fab in Singapore:
    http://bit.ly/rHPGtY; The article seems to imply an eight chip stack of these chips to produce a 128GB SSD in a thumbnail size format.

    Mobile

    Many analysts give Intel a bad rap due to their lack of involvement in smart phones and tablet computers. Some even feel that embedded ARM processors represent a serious threat to Intel long term.
    The real fact is that Intel has an architecture that is very high on computational power and also higher on electrical power than these mobile devices could tolerate. Looking at this from the recent past, Intel would not call the mobile business a served market. The devices neither needed the compute power offered by Intel nor could they tolerate the higher power level.

    That all changes at the 22nm TriGate node. The mobile devices need for more compute power than ARM processors can provide is growing and the latest Intel technology will meet or beat the electrical power requirements of these mobile devices.
    The bottom line is that Intel could not participate in this segment until now. They could, however, prepare for engagement in the mobile business. They have done this by building manufacturing capacity and designing low power functional blocks while waiting for their 22nm manufacturing plants.

    We can expect some interesting announcements at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show in January.

    Infineon

    Bought Infineon’s baseband business in order to have a complete, hassle free, market proven baseband solution that can be embedded in an application processor SoC.

    FPGA

    In an unprecedented move, Intel is doing foundry work for a startup FPGA company. Intel is giving Achronix Semiconductor access to its 22nm TriGate process.
    The speculation is that the payoff for Intel is complete access to the Achronix technology for embedding with Atom processors in order to give mobile products OEM customers a level of product design flexibility not available from any other application processor vendor.

    http://on.wsj.com/vEkf5r

    http://bit.ly/tOE2lD

    Security

    A while back Intel bought McAfee, probably not just because they like to write big checks. McAfee announced DeepSAFE at the Intel developers forum. DeepSAFE provides security near the silicon level, beneath the operating system. It is very possible that Ultrabooks shipped with the new Intel Ivy Bridge CPUs will have a final solution to the exasperating problems of malware by putting “hooks” in the chip that makes all other security software obsolete. This could be rocket fuel that launches the Ultrabook next year.

    Apple

    Apple and Samsung are locked into 30 different lawsuits in nine countries. To me it is obvious that Apple can no longer depend on Samsung as a supplier of critical component such as their “A” series of application processors.

    The scale of this business will soon approach 300 million devices between the iPod, iPad, and iPhone. The current A5 chip is 122 sq mm in size. That means that 500 chips can be produced on a 12” wafer. 300 million chips will require a leading edge manufacturing capacity of 600,000 wafers per year. That level of capacity/technology only exists at two companies in the world, Samsung and Intel. The Intel technology is two generations advanced from the Samsung process, so moving to Intel would produce a smaller A5 chip at higher speed and even lower power.

    The Citi semiconductor analyst feels this is a distinct possibility and could be made public around the end of the year. http://bit.ly/yxsKlv__source=yahoo|headlin...
    In the latest earnings conference call, Otellini was asked if Intel is doing foundry work for anyone. His answer was that they are doing a small amount in the FPGA area (Achronix), and “a couple of strategic customers that I am unable to discuss at this time”. Would Apple be considered strategic?
    While I’m at it, why would Intel do foundry work for a startup FPGA company? My guess is that Intel intends to include a chunk of FPGA in their first mobile SoC product. That would give unparalleled design flexibility to end customers who select that part.

    Side note: Apple and Intel have collaborated on the development of the Thunderbolt technology used in the Apple computers. This is an exclusive arrangement for some period of time, after which it will be opened to other equipment manufacturers. Intel makes the part.


    The Intel investment thesis

    • Ultrabooks will stimulate a new growth cycle in PCs.
    • Solid State Drives represent a $70 billion flash memory opportunity with Intel positioned well.
    • Intel has a huge fabrication technology lead over the next best competitor.
    • Intel is actively building out capacity to serve these new opportunities.
    • Intel’s mobile engagement will begin in 2012.
    • A final security solution.
    • An Apple/Intel relationship is very likely to come out of nowhere to surprise the doubters.
    • An Atom based SoC with embedded baseband and FPGA?
    • Intel’s additional manufacturing capacity could support a relatively short term doubling of the company.
    Feb 27 11:23 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    mmiah,

    Here's a tidbit about options that I wrote and SA turned down BECAUSE it is about options. Apparently options scare everyone. I don't know if all the links work, but take a look. I have published it as a comment a few times and here it is again.

    I find options, used properly, tend to reduce my loses and they force me out of a position....you see I have a bigger problem selling than buying:)

    Micron Technology: Why And How I Use Call Options On Micron

    about:MUincludes:AHS, AMRI, ARMH, CRM, FSLR, HPQ, LONG

    I've been writing about Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and their acquisition of Elpida for a few months.

    I'm convinced that this is such a great deal that the possibility of Micron's share price doubling over the next nine months is quite high.

    So, options. We will be looking at spreads and straddles…naw, just kidding. I'm going to leave that exotic stuff to the guys on Fast Money. If you really want to learn about the endless possibilities of invest….er gambling with options you can go to the CBOE website in the strategies tab and learn more about options than you ever thought possible. As for me, it makes my brain hurt and scares me that I will screw something up beyond repair.
    I simply buy call options or put options, calls to go up (NASDAQ:http://bit.ly/1bmcLIb) and puts to go down (short).

    There are three things that you need to know about playing with options: 1. you can lose ALL your money. 2. You can lose ALL your money. 3. You can lose ALL your money.

    Now that we have that out of the way, let's see how we can make some money.
    First of all you have to find a stock that you think has reason to double in the next nine months to a year.

    If you look at a random sampling of stocks you will be surprised at the number that has gone up 100% or down 50% over the past year or less.
    Some names from Value Line and a look on Yahoo yields:
    AMR healthcare (NYSE:http://bit.ly/ZDIPFj) Up 100% in the past year
    Albany Molecular (NASDAQ:http://bit.ly/1bmcNzN) Up 369% in the past year
    Hewlett Packard (NYSE:http://bit.ly/vi2QiW) Up 100% in five months
    First Solar (NASDAQ:http://bit.ly/yZ4N23) up 234% in the past year
    I could go on, but trust me, hundreds of companies increase 100% or decrease 50% per year all the time. The trick is to find those that have a high probability of moving up 100% in the next year. This requires a surprising amount of research and work. When I find a candidate I read all the 10Q & Ks that I can find. I read the Seeking Alpha conference call transcripts for a couple of years or listen to them live, sometimes two or three times over. Often times a good starting place is related to your employment. You'll understand better what makes for a successful business.
    I subscribe to two investment services: Value Line because they have 10 years of detailed data on all the stocks they follow and NextInning for tech stocks. You shouldn't even think about playing tech stocks without having access to the NextInning website. Together this is about a $600 per year investment and no one is trying to sell me his favorite security.

    If you read the articles in the above links, you will see that I think Micron is one stock that will increase in value by 100% over the next nine months.
    You need thick skin to play options; those in the know will tell you that naked option buyers lose 80% of the time and win 20% of the time. That ought to scare you to death, right? What they don't say is that the 80/20 ratio can be improved to about 60% losing and 40% winning with a great deal of due diligence (work). That still sounds scary, right? The other thing that is never mentioned is that when you lose you often lose your whole investm…err wager, but when you pick a winner you will win 100s of percent.
    That leads to the conclusion that if you only win one out of three plays, you can make a ton of money. In order to make the full score you need a tool that will tell you, quickly, the approximate fair value of the underlying security. Something as simple a PEG ratio can give you some indication. I, of course, use my formula (http://bit.ly/YWpORn) which is just an enhanced way to look at PEG, except that I can plug in numbers and do a what-if calculation.
    The secret is self-control. I never have more than 10% of what I consider my Investment (gambling) portfolio at risk on options, the rest is in cash. Not treasuries, not super safe, high dividend stocks, cash money period.
    The options guys will advise you to buy in-the-money near-term options. These are the guys who want to take your money. Listening to them is like letting Col. Sanders baby-sit your pet chicken; you just know that won't work.

    When I find a good potential 100% gainer, I will generally assemble a position in calls that are 50% out of the money and as close to a year until expiration as I can get. The options guys call these LEAPS (Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities), what's wrong with "yearlong calls"?
    I don't often use puts because it is hard to find a potential 100% loser. Not many stocks go to zero. When using puts, I will look for a potential 50% loser, and then buy puts 25% out of the money. The puts are usually much more expensive than 50% out of the money calls, so I really have to be convinced of a serious decline. ARM (NASDAQ:http://bit.ly/t38CWg) and salesforce.com (NYSE:http://bit.ly/vfpH2z) come to mind.
    Options that don't trade big volume are priced initially by the Black- Sholes equation. B-S is good at predicting what a reasonable price would be for options in a bid/ask market. When options trade in high volume B-S is replaced by supply/demand valuation just like a stock.
    I have to give you this link to how Black Sholes works, and there is going to be a test

    http://bit.ly/1dIDnVG

    You need to scroll down this article and understand ALL of the math or you will be destined to fail miserably…..kidding….k... That math will turn any earthling's brain to pudding.

    If you are going to chicken out on the math, click on "Black - Sholes in Practice" in the contents on the first page.
    You will find a nugget of great value in that section under, "Among the most significant limitations are”:
    “the underestimation of extreme moves, yielding tail risk, which can be hedged with out-of-the-money options;”

    This little tidbit must be a warning to option dealers because what it says is that far out of the money options are inherently underpriced by Black-Sholes. So, far out of the money calls are cheaper than they should be. Happy news for the good guys, right?

    Now, an example using Micron.
    We will assume a $100,000 "investment" kitty. If you bought Micron stock, you would buy no more than 20% in one stock, right? That's $20,000 or 2000 shares of Micron. If the stock doubled, you would make $20,000. If the stock declined by 25% before you threw the towel in, you would lose $5000.
    Remember, no more than 10% of the kitty in play at any one time. In this case, I would use 5% or $5000. The Micron Jan 2014 15 call traded today for $.20, so you could buy 250 of those call contracts. For the rookies out there, one contract is for 100 shares. The above example would cost you $20 per contract. With 25,000 shares of Micron under your control you begin praying. If Micron doubles before the third Friday in January 2014, the call options would be worth at least $5. $5 times 25,000 is $125,000. You would make $125,000-$5000 or $120,000. If Micron didn't make it past $15 you would lose all the $5000 invested.
    "Great fortunes are made by concentration; great fortunes are protected with diversification."
    I wish I knew who first said that because I love it.
    So, there you go. When I have a high level of conviction on valuation of a stock, I don't even bother with shares.
    If you are going to try it, don't get carried away, do a small one first and see how it works.
    This has worked magnificently for me over the years.
    Good luck
    Aug 26 12:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Maybe It Isn't Different This Time [View article]
    Hi William,

    The stock was down over $2.50 today.....I'm out of Micron and don't care. Obviously "the market" cares.
    Of course the industry will need new DRAM and NAND capacity, but he mere hint of Samsung breaking rank tanks Micron's stock...To me that makes the Micron price scarily fragile.

    To those who think Samsung might be screwing themselves, think of this: At half the die size Samsung can sell cheap enough to take some share from Micron and still make huge margins.

    I would advise all Micron shareholders to start watching DRAMeXchange again.

    Secondarily, this fab 17 was supposed to be committed to mobile chips, which implies the most advanced node. That would be 14nm if we believe all the BS floating around. Why on god's green earth would Samsung convert that kind of capability to simple DRAM??

    TSMC has said no finfet for another year and a half, Glo Fo thinks Samsung can save their bacon in 14nm finfet. Just speculating here, but what if Samsung is throwing in the towel on finfet?? I guess they would then equip and finfet targeted factory for whatever they can make and sell. At this time that would be DRAM.

    What if the foundries are capitulating on finfet and leaving Intel the only one standing?

    People who think I want people out of Micron for some nefarious reason are being ridiculous.
    Jul 31 08:02 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Intel Take Down AMD? [View article]
    I watched the decline in AMD for 25 years. Back in the mid 2000s it looked like they might actually have a shot at a durable piece of the PC market, but they screwed that up.
    I don't know if AMD ever really goes poof, but from an investment standpoint they are irrelevant and likely to stay that way.
    Jul 22 05:47 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And DRAM Cost [View article]
    Jaret,

    Nice try on the yen thing.
    http://on.wsj.com/TVdrSp

    The Micron play was great; it made me, you and a bunch of other people a lot of money.

    The events that made it great were:
    1. The Elpida acquisition that didn't look like a good idea in the beginning.
    2. The unprecedented rise in DRAM prices.
    3. The Hynix fire.
    4. The lying about the recovery time from the Hynix fire.

    I bought about 20% of the way through the DRAM price increase and watched the other pieces of the perfect storm assemble themselves.

    It's done now. We now know that Micron (with Elpida), at full output, at today's prices, can do $16 billion per year at about 18% net profit, or approaching $3 per share. We have two quarters of the same revenue with a forecast for about the same revenue for next qtr.

    Now the spending starts. Both of these companies have not been able to spend to keep facilities up to date. CapEx will likely double, so depreciation will double.

    Micron PP&E has remained about the same from 2011 to the latest qtr, which confirms that the Elpida assets had been depreciated down to close to zero. From here that Elpida cost advantage will decline.

    Employee costs will increase as people play catch up, since pay raises have been non-existent for the past 10 years. Hiring to fix the NAND problem has already begun.

    All in all, operating expenses will begin to weigh on costs and earnings going forward. The move to smaller and unified nodes in DRAM will help efficiency and offset the headwinds to earnings. The only way that margins expand significantly from here is with an actual shortage of memory which will hurt the entire industry. Big players will not let that happen.

    In a recent Goldman report, they claim 30% operating margins on DRAM will attract peripheral suppliers, even mentioning Intel as a potential supplier of jelly bean DRAM!

    The Intel part of your argument is hard for me to buy. Intel has moved static ram to on-chip cache and steamrolling the SRAM suppliers in the process and no one seems to have noticed. Hell, Micron used to be a big SRAM supplier, not any more.

    Intel needs a simple process to use as a pipe cleaner for advanced logic nodes...DRAM is great for that purpose. DRAM on chip could take many forms, the most likely being a TSV stacked assembly with ultra-wide, high speed interfaces. I'm expecting and projecting that 4GB of DRAM could be a 160 square mm chip done on fully depreciated lines with very high yields. If that were to happen, I would bet my left 'nad that Micron will not be involved in the DRAM chip. At $35 per 4GB block of memory, Intel would generate $12,000 wafers with a $3000 wafer cost.

    Anyway, Micron is a much better known quantity now. Intel, on the other hand is still a big question mark. Still building new capacity long after it became obvious that PCs had stopped growing.

    For anyone who is concerned about my early exit from Micron. I bailed at 110 times my "investment"....which would have been ~330 times my investment had I stayed in. My gain on Intel is at 4X, so the total is 440x over less than two years. I expect the Intel play to ultimately be a 50 bagger. 110x50 is 5500.

    I'm doing just fine and am really happy for those who scored on Micron. Don't get married to it and if you stay in buy protection around earnings until you are ready to cash in.

    Simpler still, join me in Intel and sleep soundly. Today, down market, down SOX, down Micron, up Intel. Really down ARMH??? Is Intel getting some mobile design traction?
    Jul 10 12:43 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And On-Chip Memory [View article]
    Phred,

    Rag is intensely focused on the rearview mirror. I'm sure that he saw Intel bringing on stained silicon, HKMG and TriGate transistors. What's next molecular sized DRAM capacitors?.....a completely different memory technology? Massively parallel TSV DRAM is also just fine.

    I'm sure that Rag is really bright, but just a little narrow minded.
    Jul 2 12:47 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Comparison Of SanDisk And Micron [View article]
    Mark,
    You have it pretty right. I looked at the pieces of Elpida in early 2013. The name Elpida meant nothing; the names NEC, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi meant a lot. I'm surprised that the analysts totally missed that.
    I did wind up getting about $4.50 for a good sized mass (5000+ contracts) of calls that I ultimately only had $.04 in.
    The volatility factor in B-S has made the options prices very expensive and, therefore, much more risky. For example, MU Jan 2015 32 calls are $2.30 @ $3 and change out of the money. Intel Jan 2015 30 calls are $.52 @ $3 minus change out of the money.

    I'm working on an article that will show as much upside in Intel as there is in Micron.....and the pundits are missing it again.

    So I am up to my soft parts in Intel and trading MU stock.....sounds strange even to me.

    I think MU will see $50, but just because I think that doesn't meant it is a sure thing. What if it pauses at $35 for a year?

    If Intel sees $35 before Jan, I will have a 25-30 bagger ($.20 cost on the 30s) with quite a pile of money on it. If Micron does $40 by Jan, the 32s will only be a four bagger.

    It just doesn't fit my "crazy" style anymore.
    May 30 11:55 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Comparison Of SanDisk And Micron [View article]
    Hi Jaret, RSA, and William,

    See why I feel alone in this opinion?

    I picked 300 million SSDs our of the air. Actually there are 550 million HDD shipped a year today....declining, of course, but not as fast as one might thing because total storage continues to grow. SSDs will never convert all HDDs

    There is a DRAM eXchange, for pay, piece that claims that 40-50% of the cost of a NAND chip is in depreciation. Figure a $3 cost for the M/I joint venture and $6 cost for everyone else and think about if your conclusions would change.

    Unlike greenfield fabs, depreciation free fabs could be throttled to match demand.....like that's ever happened before:)

    How would a $100 256GB SSD change the outlook?

    RSA, Yes I believe in tipping points....I've watched them happen all my life.

    This will be a $30 billion conversion of mechanical "stuff" to solid state "stuff". The average consumer still doesn't know a SSD from a hot rock. A weekend ad promotion of SSDs would probably give the industry a case of constipation like we have never seen before.

    I think we are very close to the end of Moore's law scaling in memory manufacturing.

    I'm beginning to get the idea that 3D will take a lot longer to come than we think. I read an article about the Samsung 3D being able to build a 128Gb chip, but with "several die stacked". Several, to me, is more than two, so figure 4 die to get to 128Gb chip. That's a 32Gb chip in 3D. Maybe a year or two for 64Gb and another year or two for 128Gb....and even then, would it be cheaper than a 128Gb 2D chip?

    Could we have a 256Gb 2D chip before then? at 200mm^2?

    I'm not sure that I have this figured right....but Jackson hasn't thrown turd balls at me yet.

    Sorry guys, I just can't shake this SSD semiconductor "killer app" thing for Intel and Micron. It's just too big to ignore.
    May 23 12:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Scaling Advantage Will Be A Mobile Opportunity [View article]
    Agree.
    Intel has enough financial clout to take more than one swing at the mobile business. I guess they have enough clout to take strikes for a few innings.
    When the mobile grand slam comes, the game will be over with Intel the winner.
    Mar 3 04:44 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memory OPEC? Micron Makes The Case For The Multiple [View article]
    That is simply the WORST article ever........if you're short Micron...heh, heh, heh.
    Yo managed to get it all together in one spot. Great.
    Mar 3 12:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The End Of Moore's Law [View article]
    trader,

    Been waiting for you trader. You must have slept in this morning.
    What is truly absurd is your total lack of understanding and vision about what is happening before your very eyes.
    The $40 billion gap is for PRODUCTION facilities.
    Reverse engineering is getting a lot tougher.
    That TSMC is taking a shot at node jumping demonstrates their desperation.

    Trying to keep up with Intel to this point has depleted TSMC's balance sheet and that will only get worse in the future.
    IBM is already trying to drop out of this competition.

    That $50 billion worth of Intel PC and server chip business just keeps providing $20 billion per year that the others can't thumb up.

    Trader, it is finally clear that the Moore's Law end game terminally crushes the competing foundries in the bleeding edge technology.

    You are free to think what you want and maybe you should collect your thoughts and write an article that will give us all the insight into how to invest our money. I, for one, would like to see that.
    Feb 24 09:16 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: About Memory Prices, Both Spot And Contract [View article]
    Moderation,
    You're entirely welcome. I don't think we are even close to being done. I think there are a few people around here whose life is going to be a little easier because of Micron. That makes me sleep well.
    Feb 16 08:38 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Upside Potential [View article]
    Dan,
    So you say. I still have a bet with friends that TSMC never ships a 20nm planar process of commercial value.
    The other thing that everyone knows is that you are getting paid from TSMC. So, your accepting you opinions are a little like having Col. Sanders babysit your pet chicken.
    Intel has shipped the initial 25,000 design samples of Broadwell. Production will follow soon.
    28nm planar to 14nm second gen TriGate is actually more like three nodes ahead.
    You keep cashing those TSMC checks, and I will eat crow if I am wrong.
    Feb 4 01:26 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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