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Russ Fischer

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  • Intel: It's About LTE, Dummy [View article]
    I spend a lot of time walking around shaking my head about the BS that is foisted on the investing public.

    When the financial press repeats the Piper garbage 19 times! and has nothing to say about the firm release of the 4G LTE solution from Intel, you get a flavor for the rampant incompetence of these people as a group.

    Analysts:
    Look it up....buy side analysts supply internal investment strategies to institutions. those strategies are closely guarded secrets.
    But side recommendations are for traditional brokers to stimulate trading and commission for their company, not the investor. the sell side advice can range from excellent to nearly fraudulent. How does the average investor tell the difference?
    the answer is to use that 3 pound mass embedded in bone on top of your shoulders to understand a couple of sectors well....and find trustworthy sources of information in the industry...good luck on that.
    From that standpoint, Seeking Alpha can be a good source of information....at least they are not trying to sell you a subscription to some hogwash.
    For technology, I find Paul McWilliams's Next Inning is by far the most comprehensive and rational service available and its not a ton of money. Google it, because I'm not going to look like a service peddler.
    Aug 21 08:38 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Pricing And Margin Strategy [View article]
    Having a little trouble with reality?
    May 11 12:08 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: PC - A 3-Year Walk In The Wilderness [View article]
    Oh damn, I forgot that you were on my home planet.

    SA gets real snippy when I gnaw on commenters, so you are going to have to be happy with. "Jeez, I'm sorry we don't agree on this topic, but you have a nice day:)"
    Apr 8 06:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Micron Earnings To Be Released After The Close [View article]
    Risk,

    I just read another "knocked the cover off the ball" post mortems. The author pointed out that Revenue and operating income were flat with last quarter. I think the cover is still on the ball, dribbling down the first base line.

    From here on we get more OpEx and more capital spending with the associated depreciation. Maybe this is as good as it gets, which isn't too bad. In addition to more spending they will start handing out shares like popcorn.

    We're a couple of downgrades away from that 28 strike price that I need.

    I fully expect to lose two out of three option plays, but hit a home run on the third. I might have blown it on this, but I will live.

    With some of these guys you would think I boinked their wife:) Pretty ugly.
    Jun 24 12:37 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Perception Vs. Reality [View article]
    moderation,

    Good for you on the Micron score.

    I like the present team, but I also liked Ottelini. I happen to think that Ottelini didn't get tarred and feathered on his way out of Intel. Apple to Intel, HKMG, TriGate, and domination of the server business happened on his watch. Guys do get tired of the pace of Intel after 40+ years. BK spent his career building Intel facilities, "and never missed a schedule". He could shut off the capital spending in a month.....he hasn't....so, while the world thinks they have made a big mistake, I think they are preparing for a growth spurt that only Intel is in a position to pull off.

    This memory on-chip thing will be several steps of evolution. As with the static RAMs used as cache memory, the DRAM will start out as a multi-chip package (that is happening now), and then go on-chip for special applications and finally across the board.

    One of the steps might be a stacked structure base on TSVs, like the Hybrid Memory Cube. Ultimately it would have to be an Intel product, so the discrete DRAM business would take a giant hit. Hopefully Micron would have been converted totally to NAND by then and not have to worry about DRAM. That's why Micron's stumbling in NAND concerns me.

    This is all speculation, however, it does seem to be in the early stages of happening.

    I remember that Intel took a swing at the FPGA business twice and "failed miserably"....scared the hell out of Xilinx and Altera....what really happened was that Intel finally figured out that the FPGA business, fully developed (at that time) was a very high support $2 billion business, so they dropped it.

    There are only a handful of silicon opportunities that meet the size and technology criteria to pique Intel's interest. I think they are DRAM on-chip, solid state mass storage, mobile, networking, and foundry....and in that order.


    I'm buying the Jan 2016 40 calls hand over fist. I think I can see a $70 stock price developing here. I expect a lot of turd balls on that call, just like the early "crazy" calls on Micron. That one worked out and a lot of people are better off for it; I think Intel will work out as well.
    Jun 20 10:23 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: How Would You Use $50 Billion Of The Best Semiconductor Capacity On Earth? [View article]
    Sladecek,

    That white paper is very relevant today for the predictions. HKMG and Trigate transistors were predicted and came true. The comments on memory being closer to or on chip is beginning to come true. The 20 billion transistors chip is true in the super computer 50 core parts that Intel supplies.

    It still had information about Itanium, which was a big loser...well loser to HP, not necessarily Intel.

    You should read it in depth. They understood the power issue for mobile and it provided the first glimpse of the Internet of Things.

    It is not so much a product roadmap as a computing technology roadmap.
    Jun 13 09:28 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Going On At Intel? [View article]
    Trader,
    Thank you for supporting my position on analog and finfets. This means that TSMC and Samsung have the same valley of death to walk on finfet SoCs in order to continue scaling. The difference is that Intel has that nice little $49 billion of x86 business with which to pay for the development of mixed mode TriGate. TSMC will have virtually hundreds of designs to re-plow to get into finfet.
    The alternative for Samsung and TSMC is to stay planar, stuck at a difficult 20nm, and more likely 28nm
    Of the two, I'll take the Intel position.
    Digital radio might well be vapor, but they had 10 years in it back when they showed Rosepoint. They could pop DR on us just liked they did with TriGate.
    Jun 2 11:01 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Comparison Of SanDisk And Micron [View article]
    RH,

    Yes, I used the "Other Sales" number of 12%. if it is 6, 9,or 12% it is still a big number when people talk about margin advantage over Micron, who has some at-cost business to deal with.

    If you think that was the point of the article, you might read it again.

    I submit that the point of the article is that Intel and Micron are connected at the hip and that Intel is sitting with some fabs that for memory would be considered state of the art, but for bleeding edge logic are obsolete.

    I sometimes feel alone with the opinion that the computing business is going to have to thumb up a ton of NAND fab capacity in order to build and ADDITIONAL 300 million SSDs with a capacity average of about 192GB.

    That will take 3.6 billion 128Gb chips or about 12 million wafers or 12 damn big memory fabs to make the NAND required.

    You can argue about the SSD timeframe, but you can't argue about will it happen....unless you know someone who has tried a SSD and decided to go back to a HDD.

    everyone is so concerned about the players not upsetting the new and fragile oligopoly than they don't talk about the elephant in the room. That elephant is more capacity of low cost 2D NAND. Forget 3D for the foreseeable future. The whole industry agrees that 3D doesn't solve the cost problem for several years.

    If you turn over every rock, you might find SPACE for another million wafers per year. After D1X and Fab 42 are built out (looks like 450mm wafers are in the tank for now), Intel will have excess capacity for about four million NAND wafers available in months not years. Since Intel apparently doesn't want to be in the memory business directly, the IMFT JV looks like a hell of an important asset.

    Two heavy Intel VPs made a big deal out of non-volatile memory during the last investor meeting. Why?

    Maybe I am all wrong about this. Maybe the semiconductor industry will be making a U-turn. Maybe core memory gets another chance. Vacuum tubes, anyone?
    May 21 04:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: It's The DRAM Stupid [View article]
    Phred,
    Great article.
    I'm swing trading the stock now. The options have become way expensive. I do think it still has a double left in it.
    May 12 05:43 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Earnings: The Next Day [View article]
    For those that have read my approach to options, you have to be ready to lose 100% two out of three plays.

    And the SOXX was sown 2.5% yesterday; with the beta of Micron, 5%+ seems like a reasonable decline.

    We will get 20-30% retracements. The stock is worth much more than it is selling for.

    I got cute with some Apr4 calls that are now dust.
    Apr 5 04:23 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And TSMC: The Unwinnable Struggle [View article]
    II,

    In my humble opinion you are wrong....again.
    Mar 24 12:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And TSMC: The Unwinnable Struggle [View article]
    rko,

    "The same is true with QCOM, who is under fierce competition from MediaTek. Why QCOM has not jumped into Intel's "superior" process and gain huge advantages over its competitors?'

    That comment really demonstrate your complete ignorance of the issue. Intel will not do foundry work for what they consider to be a competitor.
    the CEO of NVidia was pretty noisy a couple years ago in his
    desire to see Intel become the bleeding edge fab to the world.
    Mar 24 09:24 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The End Of Moore's Law [View article]
    trader, ol' pal,

    That TSMC balance sheet is in Taiwan dollars....divide by 30 to get the real numbers.
    I'm surprised at you; you seems smarter than that......unhappy and whiny, but at least smarter.
    Feb 24 11:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Micron Go From Here? [View article]
    Geez Phred, thanks for the support.
    I showed the "rarely wrong " thing to my wife......she walked away mumbling, "Phred who?" Then said, "Go clean the kitty litter boxes."

    You saved be from digging out the Inotera thing for credibility.
    Inotera/Micron did indeed modify their agreement back in January 2013 to take 100%. for some reason there was a small residual of about 5% of the Inotera output that didn't go to Micron. I think it was the last CC where this was mentioned and that, finally, every last chip from Inotera went to Micron. It is mice nuggies and doesn't change anything.

    No, mm, I am not a year out of date.

    There is another little ditty that goes un discussed. that is that the big NAND fab in Singapore was designed (IMFM) for 100,000WSPM. The last good information I have is that that fab was only 60% equipped and could quite quickly add another 40kWSPM when needed.
    If memory serves Rexchip also came with some significant unfinished capacity.

    The point of all this is that Micron could add stealth capacity if/when required that could be on line before anyone noticed.
    Feb 7 10:17 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Micron Go From Here? [View article]
    Yeah, I get a lot of pretty nice email comments which kind of trumps the dorks.
    This MU score has helped a lot of people.
    Feb 5 07:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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