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Russ Winter

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  • Outflows from gold ETPs of 10.27 metric tons YTD have surpassed the combined inflows of the previous 2 years, according to Bloomberg. One portfolio manager notes the outflows about equal the amount mined, meaning new supply has doubled this year. "The market has a lot of metal to absorb." GLD +1.3% premarket. [View news story]
    If the world is "awash in GLD gold", where has it all gone? Back to the Fed to return leased gold, so that they can deliver to Germany, etc? Are wealthy GLD holders exchanging for physical gold to store in private vaults? There has been only 1.3 tonnes delivered to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, since April 22, and they have had huge, unfulfilled orders there. Little is adding up on the GLD ETF story.

    Orders for Gold Unfulfilled in Asia.
    http://bit.ly/10kQWav
    May 22 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Force Majeure Of The Comex Paper Market Really Just A Tinfoil Hat Theory? [View article]
    I am not exactly sure what to make of this (digging a bigger grave for themselves?) but it appears that in June the Comex is rolling out a new 1000 oz physically deliverable silver contract for smaller investors. First stand on this one would be September. What happens if a bunch of small investors use this to buy silver well below dealer costs?

    http://bit.ly/11WGoRQ
    May 21 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Force Majeure Of The Comex Paper Market Really Just A Tinfoil Hat Theory? [View article]
    India is paying a premium of nearly $40 per 10 gramme bars.

    Dubai buyers are paying a premium of $7-10 per kilogramme.

    Turkey is reported to be paying a premium of $25 an ounce over spot prices.

    Hong Kong and Singapore buyers are paying premium of $5 per ounce for gold bars.
    May 21 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Force Majeure Of The Comex Paper Market Really Just A Tinfoil Hat Theory? [View article]
    The Shanghai Gold Exchange has been running 15,000-20,000 kg of Au9999 through May, and hasn't had a gold delivery since May 2.
    May 21 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Force Majeure Of The Comex Paper Market Really Just A Tinfoil Hat Theory? [View article]
    I updated the latest May contract situation that runs off this week, Shanghai activity, and June contract roll here. A free 18 minute podcast is also available.
    http://bit.ly/11VgVYY
    May 21 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hard To Call Bottom In Gold And Miners: Strategy Going Forward [View article]
    Is a Force Majeure of the Paper Gold Comex Exchange Really Just a Tinfoil Hat Theory?
    http://bit.ly/114z2di
    May 20 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Things Einhorn And Soros Are Forgetting About Gold Miners ETF [View article]
    Positioning of the Paper Gold Comex Commitment of Traders.

    http://bit.ly/10zyN8n
    May 19 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Things Einhorn And Soros Are Forgetting About Gold Miners ETF [View article]
    Maybe they are getting the early word that mining costs are actually falling?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 19 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not Lower Because Of A Higher Dollar [View article]
    The CoT data for gold had the positioning as of last Tuesday. POG was $1,420 at that point. Managed money continued to modestly reduce long positions to the lowest level since 2008. But the big story was the continued reduction in the position of producers, who have now only hedged 27,066 contracts, or 2.706 million ounces. This represents a substantial reduction off of last week’s 37,463 contracts. In other words, producers in general — or perhaps one or two large producers – were in the market during the week buying and closing out roughly 1.04 million ounces of gold hedges.

    This tells us the gold producers have little future production to deliver to the paper Comex market. Last October, they had over 20 million ounces hedged. Most of the 2.706 million ounces still hedged is spread out over months, if not years.

    It may also suggest that gold producers prefer to sell their gold directly elsewhere and bypass the Comex altogether as a legitimate place to conduct business. Further, since prices are higher in the physical market why deliver to the Comex warehouse at all? That in itself would be a huge event. The commercial and producer indicator on its own is very bullish, but this seems especially so because of its challenge to the paper gold Comex “market.”

    more-
    http://bit.ly/10zyN8n
    May 19 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold miners (GDX -3.2%) take another beating as gold continues to lose its allure amid disclosures of reduced bets by hedge funds, a World Gold Council report showing gold demand at a three-year low, and a surging dollar. For the miners, it's an ugly world of lower production, higher costs and falling prices. At least nine miners hit 52-week lows: NEM -3%, GG -2.7%, AUY -4.8%, HMY -6.3%, AU -2.5%, BVN -1.1%, ANV -7.4%, NG -2.7%, GSS -5.8%[View news story]
    The CoT data for gold had the positioning as of last Tuesday. POG was $1,420 at that point. Managed money continued to modestly reduce long positions to the lowest level since 2008. But the big story was the continued reduction in the position of producers, who have now only hedged 27,066 contracts, or 2.706 million ounces. This represents a substantial reduction off of last week’s 37,463 contracts. In other words, producers in general — or perhaps one or two large producers – were in the market during the week buying and closing out roughly 1.04 million ounces of gold hedges.

    This tells us the gold producers have little future production to deliver to the paper Comex market. Last October, they had over 20 million ounces hedged. Most of the 2.706 million ounces still hedged is spread out over months, if not years. It may also suggest that gold producers prefer to sell their gold directly elsewhere and bypass the Comex altogether as a legitimate place to conduct business. That in itself would be a huge event. The commercial and producer indicator on its own is very bullish, but this seems especially so because of its challenge to the paper gold Comex “market.”

    http://bit.ly/10zyN8n
    May 18 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Official: Gold Is Now The Most Hated Asset Class [View article]
    Very unclear where the Comex is going to get their gold. Producers are down to 2.7 million oz hedged, deliverable over months if not years, versus 20 million oz last October.

    more- http://bit.ly/10zyN8n
    May 17 10:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sell-Off In Gold Has Become Plain Silly [View article]
    Positioning of the Paper Gold Comex Commitment of Traders:

    The CoT data for gold had the positioning as of last Tuesday. POG was $1420 at that point. Managed money continued to modestly reduce long positions to the lowest level since 2008. But the big story was the continued reduction in the position of producers who have now only hedged 27,066 contracts or 2.706 million ounces. This represents a substantial reduction off of last week's 37,463 contracts. In other-words producers in general or perhaps one or two large producers were in the market during the week buying and closing out roughly 1.04 million ounces of gold hedges.

    - more http://bit.ly/10zyN8n
    May 17 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orders For Gold Go Unfilled In Asia [View article]
    Not sure what the "rubbish" is because the article is pretty cut and dry, links to a news story out of India and gives all readers here the link to the SGE where they can check trading and gold delivery everyday for themselves.
    May 17 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sell-Off In Gold Has Become Plain Silly [View article]
    Lots of activity on Shanghai Gold Exchange, grannies back in with 19,527 kg. Zero deliveries.

    http://bit.ly/10CRhRk

    Even with this carnage there is still June contract open interest of 195,938. There is still a lot of short covering to conduct before the first notice date.

    Some comments on the May (normally low month) stands from Harvey Organ:

    Harvey Organ on Comex activities. The May stand for delivery are unprecedented for an off month..:

    “Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May: 1952 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 195,200 oz (served) + 1059 notices or 105,900 oz (to be served upon) = 301,100 oz or 9.365 tonnes of gold.

    This is extremely high for a non active month. We gained 25,000 additional gold ounces standing for the May comex gold contract today.

    A reader at Lemetropole asked me if we have ever seen anything like this huge number of gold ounces standing in a non active gold month. The answer is simply that it has never happened before. Traditionally approximately 1 to 2 tonnes at best stand and most of the delivery notices are filed in the first few days.

    In May we are witnessing a huge increase in OI (and also an increase in total gold deliveries) as the month of May deliveries progressed. It is conceivable that the amount standing in this non active month will exceed what usually stands in an active month: 10 to 15 tonnes of gold.

    The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will watch what happens with JPMorgan with respect to its customer gold remains (now at 9.25 tonnes of gold) and the entire comex dealer gold close its nadir at 1.676 million oz.(52.13 tonnes).”

    http://bit.ly/MbtG2t
    May 17 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sell-Off In Gold Has Become Plain Silly [View article]
    Orders for Gold Go Unfilled in Asia:

    http://bit.ly/12brXUL
    May 17 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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