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Russ Winter  

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  • Deal for AuRico Gold makes no sense for Alamos Gold, analyst says [View news story]
    AUQ's Young-Davidson is a better asset: longer life, saver jurisdiction than AGI's Mulatos. There needed to be some cash tossed in on the merger terms to balance that out. Half that cash the analyst subtracted off to get the enterprise value is still in AGI's talley.
    Apr 15, 2015. 06:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of Luna Gold's Q4 Results [View article]
    Luna's CEO is Mark Leduc, not Ledec.
    Apr 3, 2015. 02:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of Luna Gold's Q4 Results [View article]
    The $10.4 million exploration budget is aggressive by design. It will go after numerous shallow high return soft rock oxide targets. To me this is overkill, but as such the odds of a large boost in oxide ounces and a payoff are quite high. The reason the plant is on hold is that the prior management failed to account for enough oxide reserve, and ended up short. The plant is not configured for hard rock sulphide. Fortunately the oxide ounces are abundant in the district, so it is now necessary to go get it.

    Of course selling 20 cent stock to raise this high return $20 million is not a fix or appropriate. I talked with Anne Hite (not Ledec). Hite was sharp, very little BS beyond a proclivity to blame prior management and make it clear her group had no responsibilty. She dealt with my very challenging questions. At times I was tough on her, and at one point had to apologize about raising my voice around the topic of serious dilution. Sounded like she is used that.

    She indicated a bunch of producers with CAs have gone over the data, many making site visits. There is a rash of tire kicking going on. Personally I see this as a great target, it is permitted, can go into lower cost production with a small investment, not some start from scratch protracted capex spend.

    However the new guy Ledec will not sell the whole project at a distressed price. He will take new partners, large industry shareholders for a fair price (not 20 cents) but not for the whole project. So that means someone is going to have to trust new management's execution as they won't have control. Ledec does have an excellent background with late stage development projects (Bear Creek and Lydian). In his favor neither were seriously diluted. But not having control probably brings down the JV stake price.

    But here is where the conversation got strange and rather WTF. It sounds like Ledec is playing some Russian roulette by throwing back a "we will walk" and do a dilutive public offering at them. To me, and this is just my opinion, this sounds like adversarial negotiation, but then I am not privy to details and am operating with instincts.

    I don't know all the details or particulars but it strikes me that this posturing and maneuvering will go on throughout the month of April. Remember Sandstorm is a 20% shareholder so there is incentive to make the best deal for them as well. Sandstorm can not buy more shares so the idea of a cheap insider offering for them is out.

    I am involved in this stock, and will be covering the story (and others), good, bad or indifferent for my subscribers. http://bit.ly/12qSj7n
    Apr 3, 2015. 02:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Commitment Of Traders Data On Gold Shows Something Very Surprising [View article]
    It is well illustrated historically in the chart shown here:
    http://bit.ly/1ClT6If
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources Receives The British Columbia Environmental Assessment Approval For The Brucejack Project [View article]
    The quoted mine life is 18 years producing an estimated 7.3 million ounces of gold. Average annual production of 504,000 ounces of gold over the first 8 years and 404,000 ounces of gold over the life of mine.

    But a royalty offer would take into account that Valley of the Kings will have a much longer mine life. They were hitting very high grade at depth, which is open.

    Personally I think they could fund most of this with such an arrangement, big producer, very long life, low cost: best of class. It would probably be Franco-Nevada rather than Sandstorm. They already hold a 1.2% NSR. They might do a consortium to make everybody happy.
    http://bit.ly/1rmzXTr
    Mar 28, 2015. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources Receives The British Columbia Environmental Assessment Approval For The Brucejack Project [View article]
    Options:
    1. JV: Carried to production plus some cash at a premium price. Straight 50:50 carried is inadequate.
    2. Low cash costs so likely and easily could do a streaming royalty.
    3. Combine #2 with some debt.
    4. Raising more equity at depressed $5-6 prices should be last resort, if at all. NO!

    This long life project is doable at 1200 POG.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IAMGOLD to cut board size, chairman Pugliese to retire [View news story]
    Rodney Dangerfield of mining to the stock market, kind of hopeless. Beside the undervalued production and extra cash, they have developed a very good stable of development projects that another producer would appreciate.
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IAMGOLD to cut board size, chairman Pugliese to retire [View news story]
    Gonna be sold?
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros: Greece "going down the drain" [View news story]
    Give more aid to Ukraine so that Soros and his crime syndicate can quickly loot it.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold To Sell Diamond Royalty To Sandstorm: Is It A Good Deal? [View article]
    Iamgold needs to get a move on while targets sell at fire sale prices. Just sitting on zero interest cash and paying interest on debt has a very limited shelf life.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Luna Gold Announces Stream Restructuring With Sandstorm - Is It A Good Deal? [View article]
    Sandstorm has 19.8% of Luna shares and management 10%, so they have skin in the game and incentive not to give away shares. The short term cash flow pressure and onerous 17% royalty on Luna has been relieved. I can see the longer term win-win calculus, Sandstorm could have been tougher.

    Lack of stock reaction is strange, and I imagine the major shareholders are expecting a good recovery or a serious equity partner to emerge who will pay a fairer price. if you read the second IR, it says it was Sandstrom turning down low ball offers.

    ""The Company is seeking equity investors as part of its ongoing review of strategic alternatives, but as of this date has no agreement with any investor for an equity investment that meets Sandstorm's terms.""

    - Important to note that the equity conversion in 2018-2020 debentures is at the option of LUNA, not Sandstorm. They may not need to dilute at that point, can pay off debt. Meanwhile the interest is quite reasonable at 5%.

    - Think Sandstorm gave up a lot to get the 2% greenfields NSR. Obviously they see the big picture and long term upside to the district. But Luna can also buy half of this back for $10 million. Sandstorm may have errored with that clause.
    Mar 21, 2015. 05:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Gold files for Chapter 11 [View news story]
    ANVGQ, to check volume go to stockhouse or put it on your Yahoo finance portfolio. Volume doesn't show under the regular Yahoo quote page.
    Mar 10, 2015. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Gold files for Chapter 11 [View news story]
    Yes, for 99.99% of the shareholders terms like adjusted equity value is legal and financial gibberish. Someone who knows what it means has a huge advantage and opportunity to steal the company, quite possibly with these warrants. Traded 28 million, over 20% of outstanding with an hour to go.
    Mar 10, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Gold files for Chapter 11 [View news story]
    I have the 10-1 and frankly there is no way to read it.
    http://1.usa.gov/1MokszW

    However, I tried and didn't find anything specific on the warrant terms. Perhaps you did?

    At any rate most of not all reading here are in the dark and not on an even playing field with the sharks. However I would point out that someone has been buying all day as the volume, as I write with an hour and half of trading left, is 23 million shares (out of 126 million) at 10-25 cents. Yes it could be the big short wrapping up, but it would also be a sneaky way to position a large toehold warrant position to get equity for a takeout.

    Not saying I know, but the 10-1 doesn't provide a clue. It is hard for me to believe this asset isn't worth well north of the $500 million debt hurdle: just the plant alone.
    Mar 10, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold: Working Capital Exceeds Market Capitalization [View article]
    Iamgold, the Rodney Dangerfield of miners, also has one of if the not the best exploration programs out there. They have been hitting a series of yahoo holes in the last four months. Boto and Monster Lake are especially promising.
    Mar 3, 2015. 03:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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