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Russ Winter  

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  • Chesapeake Gold: Think Like A CEO And Buy A World Class Asset Trading At A Discount [View article]
    This is an exercise worth having on this name (and others) because even if someone paid $5 to put it away for a better day that isn't much outlay. Someone like John McCluskey of AGI (who is very opportunistic) might do an unfriendly, but the key is getting some large institutions to either sell at these cheap prices or go along. CKG doesn't trade enough shares to build much of a position otherwise.

    Took a look at institutional holdings and there aren't any large positions. Retail might accept a 5 buck bid.

    I think Torex might be a better option for Goldcorp as it is right next door to Los Filos, cash makes up 60% of mkt cap, and the capex would be little for GG. I think it might go once Torex drills out the Media Luna target to a juicy resource this summer.
    Jul 17, 2013. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Gold: Think Like A CEO And Buy A World Class Asset Trading At A Discount [View article]
    I think you have identified the likely buyers. Randy Reifel has sold deposits to GG in the past. I doubt RR would let this go for the prices you mentioned though.
    Jul 17, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detour Gold - Straight Road To Production? [View article]
    Detour has extremely low discovery cost of $5 an ounce in that district and can find one gram gold until kingdom come. They are looking for nearby higher grade material that will lower their costs.

    I don't think all in costs are the way to evaluate a miner selling at 65% of capex. I explain why here.
    Jul 15, 2013. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detour Gold - Straight Road To Production? [View article]
    Detour's discovery costs have been only $5 an ounce. They have unlimited access to 1 gram material and an open ended mine life. However the exploration budget is being targeted at higher grades which will supercharge their production and cost profile.
    Jul 15, 2013. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alamos Gold (AGI -3.3%) agrees to acquire Esperanza Resources (ESPZF.PK) in a deal worth ~$69M. Esperanza's gold project in Mexico holds 1.5M oz. of gold, and is expected to produce more than 100K oz./year at cash costs below $900/oz. upon completion. CEO John McCluskey says the deal has the potential to grow AGI's Mexican production by more than 50%. [View news story]
    This is incorrect. Esperanza has cash costs of $499, and a capex of $114 million.

    Esperanza also has 48 cents in cash, this is a great buyout for AGI.
    Jul 14, 2013. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Gold An Excellent Long-Term Value Play [View article]
    Good write up. Here is a little background on costs declining at Hycroft totally unrecognized in this "market".
    Jul 11, 2013. 03:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What GOFO Is And Why It's Now Very Bullish For Gold [View article]
    There are four powerful indicators in play now to add to Ben Bernanke proclivity to grow a big Pinocchio nose and light matches which I think he did this afternoon. :

    1. Banker participation report: US banks big longs

    2. Commitment of Traders; record low commercial shorts, almost no producer delivery to Comex

    3. the aforementioned GOFO

    4. gold in backwardization.
    Jul 10, 2013. 06:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Creek Mining Has Enormous Upside Potential [View article]
    Corani is going to happen as it is located in high desert safe a distance away form towns.. I wrote this in my report.

    Bear Creek after patiently and masterfully forging its way into the Peruvian mining landscape, last week announced it had achieved a key milestone in its development process. BCEKF entered into a life-of-mine (LOM) agreement with the District of Carabaya and five of its neighboring communities. By all accounts, the company appears to be following best practices. Under the LOM agreement, Bear Creek will place into a trust $1.6 million U.S. dollars annually to fund community projects. In this recent interview the CEO discusses the company's model in Peru.
    Jul 9, 2013. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect More Share Dilution At Seabridge [View article]
    I predict they sell 10% of their float to a major for $12.00. Nothing will go to the public other than a few insiders. That's the current formula for better advanced staged deposits.

    It may go much better than that as initial results on their high grade targets are due to be announced.
    Jul 9, 2013. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now A Good Time To Buy Gold? [View article]
    Latest Reports Confirms Bullion Banks Positioned to Slaughter Speculators
    Jul 8, 2013. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Michael Feroli moves up to September his prediction for the taper to start, calling his previous December forecast, "a little underwater" in light of today's NFP report. Goldman also now predicts September as the tapering start (and moves up to 2014 Q2 the date for QE's end). The team reminds it still doesn't expect a rate hike before 2016. [View news story]
    Onslaught of bonds coming, little support for Ponzi units.
    Jul 6, 2013. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's so darn consistent it almost looks like they are making it up," says Bank of Tokyo's Chris Rupkey, after today's payroll report (with revisions) puts the last 3 months of job gains at 196K, 199K, and 195K. Noting Bernanke wants to see gains near 200K for a 6-month period, Rupkey says the taper is "locked and loaded for September." [View news story]
    More waiters, bartenders and part time than ever.

    360,000 new part time workers, and lost 240,000 full time.

    The loons are in complete control of these "markets".
    Jul 5, 2013. 01:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even after a lot of selling, the amount of gold remaining in ETFs suggests things could get a lot worse. This year's sales of 19M ounces is a 28M ounce swing from last year's gain of 9M ounces, or 870 metric tons - a significant amount compared to total demand of 4,360 tons. Gold ETFs still hold 65M ounces, leaving plenty to be potentially liquidated - consider the effect of gold ETF holdings returning to 2008's level of 30M ounces. The metal (GLD +1.8%) is enjoying a solid bounce today. [View news story]
    Exactly, here are the real drivers of gold prices.
    Jul 1, 2013. 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Could Be A Long Summer Ahead For Gold Bulls [View article]
    The GLD flows play a role, but the big story are extreme positions taken in the Comex futures markets.
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A gold (GLD, IAU) bull throws in the towel, the team at Capital Economics issuing a mea culpa for staying with its 2013 $2,500 forecast for far too long. "The traditional drivers of demand for gold have all weakened or reversed in the last few months ... There is little on the immediate horizon to prevent further declines." The target is cut to $1,350 for the end of 2013, and $1,400 next year. [View news story]
    Gold Price Drop "Reasoning" is Bogus:
    Jun 29, 2013. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment