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Russ Winter

 
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  • More Clues About What Happened In The April Gold Swoon [View article]
    Dubai reported in the past two weeks alone a massive 50 tonnes of gold was demanded. In India in April imported 166 tonnes. Remember that the world produces around 183 tonnes per month.

    According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, "Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market."

    The usual numbers that Schubert refers to are the same as the demand seen since April. According to World Gold Council data, total consumer demand for gold in the UAE (not just Dubai) stood at 51.8 tonnes for the entire year 2012,
    May 13 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Over-Leveraged Portfolios Unwinding, Watch Out Below [View article]
    More Clues About What Happened in the April Gold Swoon:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 13 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The VXX Is A Short-Term Buy And A Long-Term Sell [View article]
    Reminds me alot of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, but this one will be LTCM x 100.
    May 13 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Clues About What Happened In The April Gold Swoon [View article]
    How 'bout that, LOL.

    For those more interested in substance over style here is the April data out of India:

    IHT: In China, households purchased jewelry during April at a rate 72 percent above that of April 2012, significantly higher than the 17.7 percent rate year over year in Q1, according to the Societe Generale Group.

    India’s gold/silver imports increased by 138% yoy in April. Gold imports in April were $7.5 billion, compared to $3.1 billion in March.

    http://bit.ly/10EcM5c
    May 13 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: A Supply And Demand Tightrope Act [View article]
    Dowa Holdings Co. (5714), Japan’s biggest silver producer, will raise output 40 percent this year to meet solar-cell demand after the 2011 Fukushima disaster crippled a nuclear power plant and sent fossil fuel costs higher.

    The Tokyo-based company plans to produce 500 metric tons of silver in the year that began April 1 from 357 tons in the previous year, said Hiromitsu Takagi, manager of the strategic planning and public relations department at Dowa Holdings. That would be the most since 2006, the company said.

    Japan is expected to become the largest solar market after China this year, according to estimates by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, or BNEF. The forecast reflects the push by Japan to find alternative sources of energy following the earthquake and tsunami, which prompted the shutdown of all but two of the nation’s nuclear reactors. A rise in demand may support silver, which entered a bear market on April 2.

    http://bloom.bg/12t3NFy
    May 13 01:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After all, the Dollar Index has risen nearly 2% over the past two days. Couple that with the standard Friday jitters, its only natural for support levels to be breached today. However, Oppenheimer's chief market technician Carter Worth says today's action all part of a bigger technical move. "A multi-year bull market has transitioned to a bear market," Worth says, and "the backing and filling of late is the normal setup for the next leg down." [View news story]
    More Clues About What Happend in the Gold Swoon

    http://bit.ly/14dWdju
    May 11 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does The Pascua Lama Saga Affect Royal Gold? [View article]
    RGLD big challenge is their large, and rather expensive $781 million stake in Mt. Milligan. That's shaping up to be a tough situation.

    They have some sleepers in their portfolio but a few years out: Seabridge's KSM, and Sabina's Back River. But on those you can buy the stocks for practically nothing.
    May 9 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Gold: Is This The Bottom? [View article]
    On the whole subject of "gold selling" out of the ETFs, I would highly recommend Dave's blog post ["The Global 'Fractional' Paper Bullion Market Is Collapsing"] http://bit.ly/ZZUSt2

    This is my comments on this at my site:

    So far this year, 267 metric tonnes of gold has come out of the GLD ETF alone, and 42 mt more out of the other gold ETFs. For GLD, that’s a whopping 21.7% of the entire fund’s holdings. Even since the bottom of April 15, 88 tonnes has been sold. Of late, GLD selling has been about 100,000 ounces a day. It was 145,000 ounces in Tuesday’s gold sell off. Given that so much “gold” has been sold, why isn’t the world awash with it? Why are fabricators subject to long delays? Where is the “hoard of excess gold” sold out of the ETFs”?

    Dave Kranzler and others think some big players and wealthy individuals have asked for physical delivery. If so, then the market is really off side on the downside. Prior to seeing the continuation of this liquidation over the last few weeks, I thought this was investors getting out of gold. But now the dots aren’t quite connecting for me. The idea that very wealthy individuals have insisted on taking physical delivery of gold has a logic, too, in a world of MF Globals, the Fed taking seven years to send 300 tonnes of Germany’s gold back to the country, and ABN/Amro reneging on its “good as gold” products. Instead for many, discretion may be the better part of valor.
    May 8 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Gold: Is This The Bottom? [View article]
    The big money will be made here: Good Precious Metals Discoveries are Scarce and Undervalued:

    http://bit.ly/10rcHWV
    May 8 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Coin Sales Spike To 3-Year High, Silver Sales Continue At Record Pace [View article]
    So far this year 264 metric tonnes of gold has come out of the GLD ETF alone and 42 mt more out of the other gold ETFs. For GLD that is a whopping 21.5% of the entire fund's holdings. Even since the bottom of April 15, 80 tonnes has been sold. Given that so much "gold" has been sold, why isn't the world awash with it? Why are fabricators subject to long delays? Where is the "hoard of excess gold." sold out of the ETFs?
    May 7 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Precious Metals Discoveries Are Scarce And Extremely Undervalued [View article]
    Good points, but have to tell you: I listened to a whole day of company presentations of the European gold forum, and the CEOs seem to be underpromising if anything.

    There is some commentary about the lower costs being experienced, but they are being cautious in claiming a trend change.

    There is little debt being raised, and almost all are extremely attentive to issues of dilution, and conservative in their operations and harboring money.
    May 6 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Commodity Boom Is Over [View article]
    These commodities plus energy are major inputs to precious metal mining. As a result they will get price relief in their operations. If you believe their output such as gold, and silver are not strictly just commodities but represent a form of money, then the outlook is quite bullish for those producers and mine developers. I would you remind you that there have been long queues in China for physical precious metals, right as their economy rolls over.

    Gold Mining Costs are falling:
    http://bit.ly/13E9TDZ
    May 1 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Mining Costs Are Falling [View article]
    Much of the big turn in the cost curve is rather recent, starting in earnest at the first of the year and is now accelerating. If you look now you will see stories daily about drops in rebar prices, concrete, construction materials. Right now the backwardization in oil products is so steep that firms can hedge at 15% lower than last year. That's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. There is a bit of a procurement lead time, but this will show up in subsequent quarters.

    I am especially bullish on firms that can get underway within the next year like Guyana Goldfields.
    May 1 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Mining Costs Are Falling [View article]
    Pascua Lama located on top of a remote mountain is a hard case. In terms of the best deposits today, it is not the norm. At my web site I have gone over in some detail excellent deposits located a few miles off of highways, within a few miles of major power lines, with water availability. These are out there, and that is what I'm focused on. Just to cite a few examples look at Torex right next to Goldcorp's Los Filos: http://bit.ly/12X8wR4

    or Continental's Buriticá, Int'l Tower Mines Livengood and so on. These are nothing like Pascua Lama.
    May 1 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Most Punished Gold Stocks Over $5 [View article]
    Allied Nevada: mining costs are falling:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 30 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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