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  • Why You Should Sell Vertex [View article]
    Nice point on genotypes, treatment succes has varied according to genotype, Thx

    From Gilead, phase 3 underway on genotype 1 and combination therapy.

    http://bit.ly/129vUfW

    Advancing a Fixed-Dose Combination Tablet for HCV

    Gilead is currently evaluating a once-daily fixed-dose combination tablet containing sofosbuvir and GS-5885 in several Phase 2 and 3 trials. The studies evaluate sofosbuvir/GS-5885 with and without RBV among a range of genotype 1 HCV patient populations.

    ION-1: This Phase 3 trial was initiated in October 2012 and is evaluating sofosbuvir/GS-5885 with and without RBV for 12 or 24 weeks among treatment-naïve genotype 1 patients. Pending a review of results from the two 12-week arms (n=50/arm) of an initial enrollment of 200 patients, ION-1 will continue to recruit patients and assess sofosbuvir/GS-5885 in a total of 800 individuals.
    ION-2: Gilead today announced that a second Phase 3 study for sofosbuvir/GS-5885, ION-2, is expected to begin screening patients in January 2013. This study will evaluate the fixed-dose combination, with RBV for 12 weeks and with and without RBV for 24 weeks of therapy among 400 treatment-experienced genotype 1 HCV patients. Participants in this study will have failed past therapy with regimens containing IFN or IFN plus a protease inhibitor.
    LONESTAR: Gilead also announced that enrollment is now underway for a new Phase 2 study of sofosbuvir/GS-5885 for 12 weeks and of sofosbuvir/GS-5885 with and without RBV for 8 weeks among genotype 1 treatment-naïve patients. Two additional arms in this trial will evaluate sofosbuvir/GS-5885 with and without RBV for 12 weeks among treatment-experienced genotype 1 patients who had previously received a protease inhibitor-containing regimen. This study, which will enroll 100 patients, is the first trial to evaluate the combination of sofosbuvir and
    GS-5885 for only eight weeks of treatment.
    Jan 30 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Vertex [View article]
    From FDA news release
    http://1.usa.gov/VMEVqV
    "CF, which affects about 30,000 people in the United States, is the most common fatal genetic disease in the Caucasian population. About 4 percent of those with CF, or roughly 1,200 people, are believed to have the G551D mutation."

    Some will be covered by insurance and, to Vertex' credit, Vertex will provide the drug for uninsured patients with household income less than 150K.

    from http://bit.ly/WRRvSv

    "The 1983 Orphan Drug Act allows FDA to offer drug companies incentives including fast-track review and market exclusivity for several years after approval. In addition, the CF Foundation has invested $75 million in the Vertex CF drug program. Nevertheless, Kalydeco will be an expensive medication, with a current annual estimate of $294,000 per patient. Analysts forecast a potential $500 million in annual sales for Vertex. The company announced it would provide the drug free of charge for households with a yearly income of $150,000 or less. For the others, Vertex would cover up to 30% of the drug’s list price. "
    Jan 21 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Vertex [View article]
    The current drug targets G551D mutation in CFTR, the drug under development targets the F508 CFTR mutant allele. Important drug, but there are 30,000 CF patients in the US and
    from http://bit.ly/Vl70o0
    "The researchers explain that Kalydeco only works in patients with the G551D mutation, and does not work in the most common form of CF, which occurs in patients who have two copies of the F508 mutation in the CFTR gene. They say that an FDA approved test should be taken before patients with CF take Kalydeco, if their mutation status is unknown. "
    Jan 21 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: A Share Price Model [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 21 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: A Share Price Model [View article]
    Gross margin, operating expense, etc. but whether that estimate was reasonable is a good point for discussion, thanks
    Jan 16 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals, May Be The Last Chance To Get In Under $10 [View article]
    Good point, model is coming. My previous estimate was $300 million in revenue from Belviq sales within 2 years as a minimum.
    http://bit.ly/WXpclw
    This was based on relatively poor sales of Meridia (peak sales were about $300 million). But I'm more optimistic, and I think $600 million, assuming margins, Eisai's share, should place the stock comfortably above $10 share over the next 2 years.
    Jan 14 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Off topic, but FOID info link. http://bit.ly/VSdU3g
    Jan 10 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    fYI on FOID cards,

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    But I agree with jjmc2001, the subject is whether oln or atk are a good investment. Your reloader comment brings up an investing issue, primers are also sold out and bullets are seeing restrictions on amount per order because of excessive demand. Atk makes federal primers.
    Jan 10 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Correction, "don"t agree with lucagrs", but thx for the discussion.
    Jan 9 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Correction "photo".
    Jan 9 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Don't agree, .223 procurement by DoD skyrocketed during the Iraq war.

    http://bit.ly/UBMJZB

    And it seemed to decrease availability and increase US retail prices for .223 ammunition dramatically.

    With wars winding down and manufacturing presumably at high levels, it will be interesting to see what happens in 1-2 years.

    Thx for your comment.
    Jan 9 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Correction, there seems to be a "paradigm shift " towards multiple gun ownership
    Jan 9 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Illinois has FOID cards.
    Jan 9 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Interesting, there seems to neap arraign shift toward multiple gun ownership. As you say, shooting sports are enjoying increasing popularity, but some speculate that is because the recession has passed,
    Thx
    Jan 9 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Thx, your phot of empty shelves in your articles was a profound, a picture is worth a thousand ...
    Jan 9 09:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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