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Ryan Barnes  

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  • Pier 1 Imports rallies following profit beat and strong guidance [View news story]
    Yes this is not a very apt headline...opening lines of the cc literally have CEO stating the fiscal year "did not turn out as we had originally budgeted and we are very disappointed with the result"

    I like the effects on TJX from the news of store closings...I think home goods is taking share.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts beats by $0.01, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Agreed. I was concerned about valuation, but if ESRX can hit the upper end of cash flow guidance for current fy, stock will be right around 12x on operating cash flow. I can live with that given the strong secular trends here.
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have You Seen Nvidia's Cash Balance? [View article]
    Well done, Valuentum...I too have my own differences of opinion on some of the variables used, but I can just back out your numbers with my own if need be and it takes nothing away from a solid thesis from the top down and bottom up.

    I was long NVDA for quite a few years, and got frustrated when the at-the-time cash balance was not being accounted for in much the same way you describe now. It seems NVDA is serially underloved, but I have respect for Huang for just going all in with his R&D year after year. It gives him great tax rates and I like the secular trends in the end markets NVDA serves; I'm seriously considering going long again.
    Feb 22, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    Bill, you did a great job here presenting the data sets for P/S and the peak-current figures. There's obviously some overly enthusiastic buying the past two days in CYBR, but the market seems clearly intent on making this space one that can support 3-4 $15 billion cap companies. PANW is the de facto "leading edge" name, and they have been the second-most run up name the past few sessions.

    Institutional money mgr's are doing what they always do, which is to lock down the premium names in the space once the addressable market has clearly defined itself as a secular grower. Some may disagree on whether the latter has occurred to a tipping point, but I think we are there. Multiple road shows in March provide analysts a chance to reaffirm bull theses.

    As to CYBR itself, company reported license revenue growth of 95% Y/Y in Q4 to $24.4M, an acceleration from Q3's 67% growth. Acceleration is like candy to the money that is currently flooding the space. I expect a short pullback but would not recommend stepping in front of this industry for very long - too likely that the next catalysts are bullish, not bearish

    Best of luck to all. I am long the space but out of CYBR
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep Avoiding Retail [View article]
    XRT has delivered almost 600 bp of alpha in the past year over S&P 500 - a pretty darn good place to be has been parked in U.S. retailers.

    One could make a strong argument that for most of that time, all three of the catalysts you mention (for the bull thesis) had not fully materialized, or materialized at all.

    While valuations are certainly at historical highs, in fairness there also seems to be as strong a set of potential catalysts as an investor can find in any sector (ok, so maybe energy has more, but at ~twice the beta)
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Sign That Wage Growth Is Healthy In The U.S. [View article]
    I was hoping to see some more constructive discussion down here...I do not know how much value there is in presented isolated data points when discussing such an aggregate measure.

    Wage inflation may be the most important metric to determining the trend of short-term rates this year. It's in the top 3-4 on the Fed's list, for sure. Last month's pop (o.6%) was a nice print, but with regards to the broader trend over the past 2 years we can't yet extrapolate much.
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Inflation Appears To Be In Suspended Animation [View article]
    jgrever621 - These are all good comments. I agree that the strong GDP print out of Germany last week (.07% for Q4 vs 0.3% estimates) is a promising sign (and pushed the whole eurozone to a slight beat). Also noteworth are the strong recent eurozone results out of base spend companies like CSCO.

    Your thoughts on weaker currencies continuing their decline is likely what will happen in the short term; many countries seem to be in a race to devalue their currency. The USD seems a bit toppy here, but the longer-term trend appears intact.

    I would tend to agree on the oil timeline, which puts several advanced economies in a tricky middle ground of 1) seeking the results of lower commodity inputs in the key economic growth indicators, 2) before a potential commodity snapback muddles the picture.
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For The Euro? [View article]
    Some good info here. I would not be dabbling in currencies at the moment, but am keeping my eye on the Yen (for volatility) and nations with strong hard commodity exports for long plays in the next 18 months
    Jun 28, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Caterpillar's Blowout Quarter [View article]
    icandoit...Yes, the effective tax rate was 10% during the quarter. It was due to the fact that CAT had operating losses in countries with higher tax rates (like US) and profits in countries with lower ones.

    This kind of thing happens all the time at multinationals. Forgive me for leaving it out, but there's only so much space in these articles...I can't break apart every single line and footnote of the income statement & balance sheet.

    Although I must admit I'm quite impressed with the fact that you made an entire valuation assessment with one single sentence (fragment). "Just another overpriced stock as far as I'm concerned....."

    I bid you good luck in your investing efforts; I have a feeling by the end of this year folks like you will realize that many valuations were the best we've seen in over a decade.
    Jul 25, 2009. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Caterpillar's Blowout Quarter [View article]
    mr clark - yes, the P/E has certainly risen in the past year, but this is an industry-wide if not sector-wide phenomenon. Terex may end up being fine, but I'd be more worried about their cash flows. TEX hasn't been operating cash flow positive for over a year now, and that will inevitably lead to further balance sheet erosion.

    For all of its issues (and they are plentiful), Caterpillar has remained operating cash flow positive, which provides support for the balance sheet. Also keep in mind that the majority of CAT's debt is from their financing division, so the numbers look a bit outsized relative to the other metrics.

    Best of luck in your investing efforts
    Jul 22, 2009. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can We Get Back to Stock Picking Now? [View article]
    hey PJ, you'll excuse me if I object to your comments. I've been covering BSX for over five years and been published on them quite often. For a company like BSX that has been in the doldrums ever since the GDT train wreck, yes, it was a good quarter.

    The $28 million drop you mention was spread out over higher R&D ($10m), IP asset impairment charges ($10m), and also higher SG& the latter could have been reigned in better, but you had better be careful when you say something like "writers don't even know what earnings are being adjusted for"...

    Are you suggesting that the $85 one-time charge recorded in the year-ago was part of an elaborate sandbag? That they recorded it just so 365 days later they'd have easier comparisons?

    And sure, let's just get rid of GAAP and start using EBITDA instead....oh, you don't mind if the S&P 500 firms add $13 trillion in debt to their balance sheets next quarter, do you? Jeesh...

    I appreciate your vigor for the nitty-gritty numbers on this particular company, but there's simply not enough space here to spout off the entire financial statement for each company mentioned. That's what the transcripts and SEC filings are for.

    All that said, I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong, and my hopes for STJ to turn in a good quarter have been largely dashed. It looks like the company wasn't able to execute the same level of market share gains as in past quarters. Companies that have held to full-year guidance all year seem to be treated a little too harshly in this market. Que Sera, Sera

    Best of luck in your investing efforts.
    Jul 22, 2009. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Preview: Earnings Upside Continues [View article]
    70% of S&P 500 companies to report this season have surpassed earnings estimates, including 100% of the DJIA stocks that have reported thus far. This is what I mean by upside.

    Best of luck in your investing efforts.
    Jul 21, 2009. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale May Bid for Mosaic: Let the Great Potash War Begin [View article]
    To Taojaxx: Yes, I read all the same reports that you have in the past 24 hours. Yes, Vale denied interest in MOS, just like every acquirer in the past 20 years has done when faced with a potential leak.

    And yes, inventories are up at Potash Corp, and Agrium has announced price cuts in the range of 20%; this is why share prices have been cut in half as I mentioned. As to the broader thesis of global demand for protein being higher...if you think that's comparable to real estate, that's your right...I just don't see any comparison.

    The increased demand for real estate was based on the increased access to cheap credit, making ever larger patches of the demograpic quilt feel that owning a home was their "right". That part of the fundamental equation has changed. The increased demand for proteins in a growing population has not changed to date, and I don't see anything stopping it.

    Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.
    Jul 18, 2009. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Washington's Dilemma: This Isn't a Recession, It's a Collapse [View article]
    California has real structural tax problems that have grown ever since property taxes were effectively "capped" in 1978. But of the 76 comments here, over 90% are filled not with legitimate ideas or even constructive criticism....just vitriol. When did SA become the stomping ground of the pitchfork crowd?

    All the CA haters need to keep one indisputable fact in mind. California has ranked amongst the top 10 net contributors to the federal government (in terms of taxes paid, people) for over two decades. Meanwhile there are about 30 states in the middle of the country that have been net gainers ONLY. Small taxes paid, big subsidies, year after year after year. Just think about that for a moment. If CA needs a loan, why shouldn't they get it? They are one of very few states that can be counted on to contribute to the pot once the economy turns. We've got 32 states that haven't contributed a net dime in over 20 years. It's fact, like it or not.

    I know this post won't be popular, but nobody gains with so much anger flying around; it's just plain unproductive. Just imagine what kind of demands the federal government could make in exchange for a bailout! They could literally force the state to shake out the horrible legislative system that has led it to its knees. It's time to get original and stop being petty.

    I don't know all the right answers - this is a very complex issue, but nobody wins when everyone's throwing stones at each other. If CA defaults on muni payments it doesn't just sink one state's ship; it will raise the cost of capital for every state in the land. We should all be afraid of that happening.

    Best of luck to all in your investing efforts...not that there's any real investing discussion here, but best of luck nonetheless.
    Jul 17, 2009. 01:38 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eight Industries That Will Lag Behind Economic Recovery [View article]
    It's funny - I agree with 6 out of 8 industries presented here (I patently disagree with metals and media lagging an overall economic recovery), but one is left to wonder if it's not just random or has anything to do with Moody's "negative watch" rankings or measures of default risk.

    Until the credit rating agencies prove otherwise, they have absolutely zero credibility. They've somehow managed to stay in business despite slapping "A" ratings on what is now toxic debt across the board. They have been the latest to the game on every call since the crisis began. By the time they put a company on negative watch, the company is either within 24 hours of a bankruptcy filing or the stock is already down 90% and bonds trade for .25c on the dollar. I would take investment advice from my grandmother before I'd take investment advice from a major credit rating agency.

    All that aside, nice article in all honesty. It gives a nice overview of the industries...But investors need to distinguish between recovery in the sense of things like job growth and recovery in the form of share price. Most retail stocks, for instance, have crushed the average returns of the market in the past 4 months, despite the negative trends mentioned. Stocks are always forward looking; by the time these industries are hiring workers again, I guarantee you the stocks will have run up by another 30%.

    Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.
    Jul 16, 2009. 11:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment