Ryan Barnes

Weekly Preview: Earnings Upside Continues

70% of S&P 500 companies to report this season have surpassed earnings estimates, including 100% of the DJIA stocks that have reported thus far. This is what I mean by upside.

Best of luck in your investing efforts.

Portfolio Update: Raising Tech, St. Jude Stakes

Hi Larry, thanks for the comments. I totally understand where you're coming from re: "skin in the game". I would contend that ALL investing is an academic exercise, whether we've got our own dollars on the line, our clients, or somewhere in between. But that's just semantics I suppose.

My #1 goal is to have absolutely no conflicts of interest when I write about investing in specific companies. Meanwhile, every stock pick I make and the management of the Secular Trends Portfolio is all out there, naked as a newborn baby. My reputation, whatever value it holds, is on the line. I guess I feel that journalistic integrity is more important at this moment in history than promoting the stocks I do own. It just feels like the right thing to do.

If I do correctly what I've set out to do, the stocks I've selected will be just as solid an investment 3-5 years from now as today. If and when I buy them all up for myself or clients in exactly the same ratios as in the model, I will do so proudly & with all parties involved knowing exactly where I stand, my philosophy, and my strategies. Of course, the public window would have to close at that point, for the same reasons of preserving the integrity of my clients.

Hope that clears things up. I wish you the best of luck in your investing efforts.

As Earnings Are Upon Us, Some Goldman Thoughts

Wow, quite the spirited discussion here, even if some of it has gone off the proverbial rails. I have been looking into the campaign contributions from the last go-around, and yes, Goldman is at the top of the list in terms of nominal dollars. And yes, the % towards democrats was high at roughly 70%.

But let's remember that this is a company based in New York City. They've been consistently funneling their contributions towards the dems at higher than 60% since 1990. Oh, and they've also donated $11 million to the Republican party in that time.
www.opensecrets.org/or...

So a company located in a highly democratic-leaning state where lots of employees make truckloads of money did what they've consistently done for 20 years. It just so happens that this time, their horse won the race.

Oh, and to boot, the total contributions from GS amounted to less than 1/2 of 1% of what Obama received in contributions. And they guy had close to $30 million in cash LEFT OVER once the election was complete. Objectively, I don't think the current Administration feels overly beholden to Goldman for anything.

A Critical Day for Commodities: Wheat, Aluminum and Copper

As to soybean oil, it's been doing worse than soybean meal, as apparently oilseed crop estimates have been coming in higher than expected. While soybean exports to China are up yoy thus far in the new marketing year (beginning Sept. 1), total exports are expected to drop as the year progresses.

4 Unbelievable Stock Charts: Freeport-McMoran, Alcoa, Peabody and Goldman Sachs

Naj,

I don't contend that copper, gold, and molybdenum prices aren't core drivers of equity prices and book value. But copper is down 62% from its peak, while FCX shares are down over 80% from peak. Moly and gold pricing have obviously held up much better.

I always subtract goodwill from my calculations. There's only about $6b of it, and if you yank it out of the picture FCX is still just .5 book. It's all about risk and reward, and I think the balance is tiled towards investors' favor at current prices.

Best,

RB

Alcoa: Dead Money Personified

Kofi, do you read the earnings reports? Study input costs? The spot price of aluminum has barely kept pace with the majority of their input costs. You mention all the "booming" and "propelling" yourself. Just because commodity prices have been universally rising doesn't imply a "once-in-a-generation" opportunity. It's not Hungry Hungry Hippo, where all the marbles must be scooped up before it's too late...It's a global market economy

Alcoa is trading at decade lows in terms of valuation. They earned a profit during the last recession, which is better than many S&P members, and they outperformed the S&P 500 at the same time. If this stock is dead money, than I'll invest with my dying dollars