Ryan Barnes

Apple: Estimates Increased on iPhone and Mac

Apple loves to sandbag and beat estimates, and I think they will come out with a beat of .05 to .10 again. iPhone sales seem to be coming in strong by my channel checks, and headwinds from the Pre will probably be balanced out by guidance towards another carrier (VZ, CHL) being in the mix within the next 12-18 months.

Also, margins on Macs seem destined to compress, but this should also be seen as a net-net positive towards gaining share. I think that DELL has an outside shot at the best upside surprise this season, due to its increased leverage towards the next PC upgrade cycle in line with Windows 7.

NVIDIA Chosen for New MacBooks: Verdict and Prospects

I understand your pain John...this has been a choppy stock all the way down, and the distance traveled far. Sometimes it is better to take your licks before everyone else does...Maybe NVDA will be the better for getting slapped around earlier in the summer?

You could be right about Apple's negotiations. They do have that reputation. But even if margins are low, say $50 a pop, it's still a major victory for parallel processing. The end game is all about GPU vs core logic...

RBarnes

Apple's 3G iPhone: Q4 Sales Estimates Are Encouraging

I appreciate the dedication put into this data gathering, but one must pause and realize that there are many other parameters that will determine both 1) AAPL's EPS figure and 2) the market's reaction to those numbers. Even though the current analyst estimates are for lower units than you suggest have been sold, by the time we get close to earnings release most folks will be expecting a beat, and the discussion will turn to "how much to they have to beat by for the stock to pop on earnings, blah, blah..." It's the nature of the beast with these fan-friendly stocks.

Shares currently trade for 29x '08 consensus estimates and over 25x run-rate operating cash flow....This is not a cheap stock. Yes, it's a fantastic company - innovative, rebellious, and the fan base is very loyal (including myself). But investors also need to realize that the U.S. consumer is in big trouble, and I for one wouldn't want to overload on a stock with such a premium valuation, and a discretionary name at that.