Ryan Barnes

Eight Industries That Will Lag Behind Economic Recovery

It's funny - I agree with 6 out of 8 industries presented here (I patently disagree with metals and media lagging an overall economic recovery), but one is left to wonder if it's not just random or has anything to do with Moody's "negative watch" rankings or measures of default risk.

Until the credit rating agencies prove otherwise, they have absolutely zero credibility. They've somehow managed to stay in business despite slapping "A" ratings on what is now toxic debt across the board. They have been the latest to the game on every call since the crisis began. By the time they put a company on negative watch, the company is either within 24 hours of a bankruptcy filing or the stock is already down 90% and bonds trade for .25c on the dollar. I would take investment advice from my grandmother before I'd take investment advice from a major credit rating agency.

All that aside, nice article in all honesty. It gives a nice overview of the industries...But investors need to distinguish between recovery in the sense of things like job growth and recovery in the form of share price. Most retail stocks, for instance, have crushed the average returns of the market in the past 4 months, despite the negative trends mentioned. Stocks are always forward looking; by the time these industries are hiring workers again, I guarantee you the stocks will have run up by another 30%.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.