Ryan Barnes

Portfolio Update: Raising Tech, St. Jude Stakes

Hi Larry, thanks for the comments. I totally understand where you're coming from re: "skin in the game". I would contend that ALL investing is an academic exercise, whether we've got our own dollars on the line, our clients, or somewhere in between. But that's just semantics I suppose.

My #1 goal is to have absolutely no conflicts of interest when I write about investing in specific companies. Meanwhile, every stock pick I make and the management of the Secular Trends Portfolio is all out there, naked as a newborn baby. My reputation, whatever value it holds, is on the line. I guess I feel that journalistic integrity is more important at this moment in history than promoting the stocks I do own. It just feels like the right thing to do.

If I do correctly what I've set out to do, the stocks I've selected will be just as solid an investment 3-5 years from now as today. If and when I buy them all up for myself or clients in exactly the same ratios as in the model, I will do so proudly & with all parties involved knowing exactly where I stand, my philosophy, and my strategies. Of course, the public window would have to close at that point, for the same reasons of preserving the integrity of my clients.

Hope that clears things up. I wish you the best of luck in your investing efforts.

As Earnings Are Upon Us, Some Goldman Thoughts

Wow, quite the spirited discussion here, even if some of it has gone off the proverbial rails. I have been looking into the campaign contributions from the last go-around, and yes, Goldman is at the top of the list in terms of nominal dollars. And yes, the % towards democrats was high at roughly 70%.

But let's remember that this is a company based in New York City. They've been consistently funneling their contributions towards the dems at higher than 60% since 1990. Oh, and they've also donated $11 million to the Republican party in that time.
www.opensecrets.org/or...

So a company located in a highly democratic-leaning state where lots of employees make truckloads of money did what they've consistently done for 20 years. It just so happens that this time, their horse won the race.

Oh, and to boot, the total contributions from GS amounted to less than 1/2 of 1% of what Obama received in contributions. And they guy had close to $30 million in cash LEFT OVER once the election was complete. Objectively, I don't think the current Administration feels overly beholden to Goldman for anything.

Goldman Sachs: No Global Financial Espionage Story Here

Nice post, Kid. It's nice to see some good-natured give & take at a time when objective analysis is paramount. The problem with the folks who promote panic-room building is that they generate massive traffic. It quickly becomes a reinforcing feedback loop in this time of populism, when so many people have lost so much, and are looking for a "safe zone" to let their anger grow and mutate into full-fledged conspiracy theories.

To read TD and others, I have to assume there's only one trade left to make in our entire lifetimes - short everything, crawl down into my bunker, and maybe come out when it's time to enter the ThunderDome and fight for my daily ration of gasoline with a tire iron.

4 Unbelievable Stock Charts: Freeport-McMoran, Alcoa, Peabody and Goldman Sachs

Naj,

I don't contend that copper, gold, and molybdenum prices aren't core drivers of equity prices and book value. But copper is down 62% from its peak, while FCX shares are down over 80% from peak. Moly and gold pricing have obviously held up much better.

I always subtract goodwill from my calculations. There's only about $6b of it, and if you yank it out of the picture FCX is still just .5 book. It's all about risk and reward, and I think the balance is tiled towards investors' favor at current prices.

Best,

RB

Las Vegas Sands: Is Goldman Sachs Working on Club Loan?

Hi Dan,

You should check out my prior postings re: LVS; I am in fact bullish on the company. I take it you're not much of a homework guy yourself...




On Nov 22 01:25 PM User 218405 wrote:

> The author doesn't hold a position in LVS, but to write about the
> company he should be try to do his homework as his comments shows
> a lack of knowledge about the company. Beleive me LVS is a steal
> at 3.23 a share.
>
> Dan Kowkabany

If Only Hope Were an Investment Strategy

Wow, lots of fear mongers around here. I thank you folks like Ponzi for being loud and unfaltering, even though rhetoric is all you have. Today might be a bottom, it might not, but don't be swayed by the loud voices with no data in hand. Listed to the dozens of small, modest voices that made strong arguments and present numbers.

Nice comments Toro - selling off of top fundamental names may have been the closest we get to capitulation.