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Ryan Perlowin

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  • Just Another WhatsApp Debate [View article]
    Interesting perspective here. offers a pretty valuable perspective as well.
    Mar 18 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Top Reason For Netflix's Incredible Run [View article]
    Thanks, DanoX. I tried to keep this article as objective as possible without commenting much on the actual valuation. Wanted to address this one variable - weather - and its impact on driving user adoption. As for $436, I think you might be right. I do think that the company has lots of promise going forward, but short-term stock performance might not reflect that promise.
    Feb 19 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holy Cow, It's Time To (NOT) Panic [View article]
    Nice points folks. When I say 14x is cheap-to-fairly priced I mean comparatively. Look at 2007 when we first hit Dow 14,000. Stocks were trading over 17x then. I use the 14x point to illustrate that we're not overextended to the point of peaking, though you're right that using the term 'cheap' is not a fair assessment. I'm not sure if we're headed up or down but I do know that we're not in for the collapse that we've been hearing about this past week or so.
    Jun 25 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New '4 Horsemen' [View article]
    Really interesting point. I didn't know that about the managers. This 5 year plan is going to be tough. There is certainly implied risk with this stock. But if it works, we're looking at a generational turnaround.
    Apr 23 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal Company's Big Red Flag [View article]
    You should make sure that you mention to the SEC that I submitted this article on Sunday night and it wasn't published until today. Good luck that.
    Mar 13 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple At Year End: $600 [View article]
    How much did you pay for them?
    Mar 7 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short BlackBerry Now [View article]
    "Canaccord Genuity has slashed its sales estimates for the new BlackBerry Ltd. smartphone, saying checks in the U.K. and Canada show only a modest initial performance and arguing that carrier support in the U.S. for the device is limited.

    In a note to investors Tuesday, Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley said the Waterloo-based company will sell only 300,000 BB10 units in the quarter ending March 2, down from his earlier forecast for 1.75 million sales. "

    "Walkley reiterated his bearish sell rating on BlackBerry shares and his $9 (U.S.) price target. BlackBerry shares closed in New York at $14.35, a gain of 1.4 per cent on lower than average volume. "

    "Deutsche Bank in a survey 30 carriers in the U.K. and 30 in Canada found only one store sold out in Britain. It said Canadian carrier retailers have fared better but on small initial inventory."

    Both Canaccord and Deutsche Bank are bearish on the stock.
    Feb 21 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Poised For Pamplona-Type Bull Run [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, hje. Seeking Alpha is a fundamental website, not technical. I'd be happy to discuss this beautiful chart's analysis with you offline.
    Feb 19 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Buy, Just Not Yet [View article]
    Sorry about that. The $130 input into my system as $230 - typo on my part. See my comment above. I agree that this is a buy, and perhaps even start building your position now. I do see some downside short term, but with a longer-term horizon, you'll make money by being long BBRY.
    Feb 18 03:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Buy, Just Not Yet [View article]
    I don't disagree with you. But I don't fully agree, either. You can start to build a position at this point, but as noted in the article, the stock is seeing high levels of volatility. If you're looking at investing in BBRY as a value stock, you should note that a $1.00 swing (which could happen in 15 minutes of trading tomorrow) is a 7% decrease.

    I would only advise against building your whole position at this level. Take a dip, buy 25% of what you intend to buy. If the stock starts to rise again, then average up with the trend. If it continues its downtrend since the BB10 launch, you'll be able to acquire 75% of your position at a lower (potentially much lower) price.
    Feb 18 03:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit With James River Coal Company [View article]
    I did cover the position. Didn't anticipate such a quick pop today so I missed a bunch of it. Continuing to play within the bands, though.
    Feb 14 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit With James River Coal Company [View article]
    Agreed, which makes it a dangerous play. Investors ought to be wary - or at least vigilant - of the burn rate and their amount of debt.
    Feb 14 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit With James River Coal Company [View article]
    Thanks @frc47. You can use a standard envelope or Bollinger Bands, depends how you want to judge. For my standard envelope I use 10%, which is a bit wide, but I've found that JRCC does bounce well between the wide range because of the high volatility.
    Feb 14 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit With James River Coal Company [View article]
    I think you hit the nail on the head here, @Tactical111 -- greed kills in this stock. Play the envelope and you'll make money. If it runs past the envelope then it runs, but it's better to make profits on lots of these swings and miss the big run than to lose on most and maybe hit on the big one.
    Feb 14 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment